Mar 11, 2020, 10:13 am
Last edit by: Ocn Vw 1K
In order to reduce noise in the Coronavirus / Covid-19 : general fact-based reporting thread, and to create a central place to invite any member to ask a basic question about the impact of COVID-19 on travel, your moderators have decided to open this separate "lounge" thread for related discussion that isn't strictly fact-based reporting.
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Any member who can provide a constructive, helpful answer to a question; or post constructively in reply to a member's point-of-view, is welcome to post.
All FT rules apply, including avoiding personalized, snarky, political, other off-topic, commercial, and repeatedly disruptive content.
Discussion of general economic impacts of Covid-19 belongs in the OMNI forum, not here.
Discussion and critique of political/government actions to aid the economy or which is far more political than related to COVID-19 is for the OMNI/PR forum, not here.
This is a protocol for posting adopted by the forum Moderator team:Please follow this protocol, based on FlyerTalk Rules and long-standing FlyerTalk best practices. Doing so will help keep the thread open, and allow our moderator team to aid members, rather than having to resort to discipline.
•Constructive, respectful posts, views, opinions, questions, and replies, related to the topic are welcome. Avoid commenting on members personally, or posting off-topic or political messages.
•While respectful disagreement of a posted view is allowed, don’t call-out posters to prove their points. FlyerTalk has never required discussion standards at the level of a Ph.D. dissertation defense, or a trial court witness cross-examination.
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COVID-19: Lounge thread for thoughts, concerns and questions
Aug 7, 2020, 7:32 pm
#3796
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 38,410
It's additional 0,01% every single day and probably more since the whole plan is designed for a second wave with higher infection rate than we see now. There is nothing to comment on, unlike you I consider locking tens of thousands people up "just in case" to be unacceptable. If you don't, then we simply have to agree to disagree.
Aug 8, 2020, 4:29 am
#3797
Join Date: Sep 2015
Location: Between Seas
Posts: 4,730
Did Sweden's coronavirus strategy succeed or fail?
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53498133
- "It feels good. I mean, finally, we are where we hoped we would be much earlier on," says Anders Tegnell, the state epidemiologist leading the strategy. He's admitted too many have died, especially in Swedish care homes. But he believes there is still "no strong evidence that a lockdown would have made that much of a difference". The unusual strategy has attracted global criticism, with even some of Dr Tegnell's early supporters saying they now regret the approach. Annika Linde, who did his job between 2005 and 2013, recently told Sweden's biggest daily newspaper Dagens Nyheter she believed tougher restrictions at the start of the pandemic could have saved lives.
But according to clinical epidemiologist Helena Nordenstedt, there's no consensus in Sweden's scientific community that the strategy as a whole has failed. "The strategy was to flatten the curve, not overwhelm health care capacity. That seems to have worked. If you take care homes out of the equation, things actually look much brighter." -
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53498133
- "It feels good. I mean, finally, we are where we hoped we would be much earlier on," says Anders Tegnell, the state epidemiologist leading the strategy. He's admitted too many have died, especially in Swedish care homes. But he believes there is still "no strong evidence that a lockdown would have made that much of a difference". The unusual strategy has attracted global criticism, with even some of Dr Tegnell's early supporters saying they now regret the approach. Annika Linde, who did his job between 2005 and 2013, recently told Sweden's biggest daily newspaper Dagens Nyheter she believed tougher restrictions at the start of the pandemic could have saved lives.
But according to clinical epidemiologist Helena Nordenstedt, there's no consensus in Sweden's scientific community that the strategy as a whole has failed. "The strategy was to flatten the curve, not overwhelm health care capacity. That seems to have worked. If you take care homes out of the equation, things actually look much brighter." -
Coronavirus: Why are international comparisons difficult?
https://www.bbc.com/news/52311014
- there are all sorts of challenges in comparing countries, such as how widely they test for Covid-19 and whether they count deaths from the virus in the same way. Prof Sir David Spiegelhalter from Cambridge University has said trying to rank different countries to decide which is the worst in Europe is a "completely fatuous exercise". -
Counting deaths
- First of all, there are differences in how countries record Covid-19 deaths. France and Germany, for example, have been including deaths in care homes in the headline numbers they produce every day. But the daily figures for England referred only to deaths in hospitals until 29 April, when they started factoring in deaths in care homes as well. A further complication is that there is no accepted international standard for how you measure deaths, or their causes. -
Death rates
- There is a lot of focus on death rates, but there are different ways of measuring them too. One is the ratio of deaths to confirmed cases - of all the people who test positive for coronavirus, how many go on to die? But different countries are testing in different ways. -
- The more testing a country carries out, the more it will find people who have coronavirus with only mild symptoms, or perhaps no symptoms at all. In other words, the death rate in confirmed cases is not the same as the overall death rate. Another measurement is how many deaths have occurred compared with the size of a country's population - the numbers of deaths per million people, for example. But that is determined partly by what stage of the outbreak an individual country has reached. If a country's first case was early in the global outbreak, then it has had longer for its death toll to grow. -
Comparisons are difficult
- "What you want to know is why one country might be doing better than another, and what you can learn from that," says Prof Jason Oke from the University of Oxford. "And testing seems to be the most obvious example so far." But until this outbreak is over it won't be possible to know for sure which countries have dealt with the virus better. "That's when we can really learn the lessons for next time," says Prof Oke. -
https://www.bbc.com/news/52311014
- there are all sorts of challenges in comparing countries, such as how widely they test for Covid-19 and whether they count deaths from the virus in the same way. Prof Sir David Spiegelhalter from Cambridge University has said trying to rank different countries to decide which is the worst in Europe is a "completely fatuous exercise". -
Counting deaths
- First of all, there are differences in how countries record Covid-19 deaths. France and Germany, for example, have been including deaths in care homes in the headline numbers they produce every day. But the daily figures for England referred only to deaths in hospitals until 29 April, when they started factoring in deaths in care homes as well. A further complication is that there is no accepted international standard for how you measure deaths, or their causes. -
Death rates
- There is a lot of focus on death rates, but there are different ways of measuring them too. One is the ratio of deaths to confirmed cases - of all the people who test positive for coronavirus, how many go on to die? But different countries are testing in different ways. -
- The more testing a country carries out, the more it will find people who have coronavirus with only mild symptoms, or perhaps no symptoms at all. In other words, the death rate in confirmed cases is not the same as the overall death rate. Another measurement is how many deaths have occurred compared with the size of a country's population - the numbers of deaths per million people, for example. But that is determined partly by what stage of the outbreak an individual country has reached. If a country's first case was early in the global outbreak, then it has had longer for its death toll to grow. -
Comparisons are difficult
- "What you want to know is why one country might be doing better than another, and what you can learn from that," says Prof Jason Oke from the University of Oxford. "And testing seems to be the most obvious example so far." But until this outbreak is over it won't be possible to know for sure which countries have dealt with the virus better. "That's when we can really learn the lessons for next time," says Prof Oke. -
Aug 8, 2020, 5:19 am
#3798
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From what’s going on with residential mortgages in Scandinavia, Denmark’s residential house market also seems to have been doing better than Sweden’s during this time. Although these three big Scandinavian countries have had their residential housing markets hold up pretty well.
Not sure if the empirical numbers yet back the following, but there are indications that finding jobs in Copenhagen is still way easier than finding jobs in southern Sweden at this time. Finding employees is far easier in urban parts of southern Sweden than in Copenhagen; and the historical gap may have even widened Sweden’s relative disadvantage to Denmark in this way.
Norway’s 2nd quarter GDP figures are out on or about the 25th, and Denmark’s should be out in ways before this month is done. But all indications are that Sweden’s not greatly economically outperformed Denmark during the peak of the regional pandemic months in this area. But Sweden definitely has a much worse performance with the death rate from this virus than its Scandinavian neighbors.
All the stacked talk about Sweden having done better fails to note that Sweden has done way worse than its Scandinavian neighbors with regard to virus deaths per capita all while Sweden’s onshore economic performance is about the same as its Scandinavian neighbors if not even marginally worse in ways.
And Sweden’s situation has been such that Swedish tourists have been persona non grata for longer across more of Europe than their bordering Schengen neighbors — this is because Sweden’s had a worse coronavirus spread than its Schengen neighbors. Real success? Not for Swedes who wanted to travel to other countries earlier this summer.
Last edited by GUWonder; Aug 8, 2020 at 5:29 am
Aug 8, 2020, 5:48 am
#3799
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And Sweden’s situation has been such that Swedish tourists have been persona non grata for longer across more of Europe than their bordering Schengen neighbors — this is because Sweden’s had a worse coronavirus spread than its Schengen neighbors. Real success? Not for Swedes who wanted to travel to other countries earlier this summer.
Regarding deaths, of course they matter, no one claims otherwise. The big questions are how many people would die if Sweden took more strict approach (chances are many of those people would die anyway) and what will be the total numbers of deaths when the pandemic is over. Yes, Sweden did worse in a short-term but that's not a "failure", because their strategy always focused on a long-term. Right now we see other countries are catching up on Sweden - there still is a significant gap but it's closing. Failure would be if Swedish numbers were significantly higher when we look back in a year or two, after the pandemic's over.
Another thing to point out is that Sweden failed when it comes to protecting nursing homes. Everyone admits this, even local authorities. A lot of deaths are attributed to this, rather than Sweden's no-lockdown policies. If we deducted deaths caused by this terrible mistake, Swedish numbers would look much better.
Aug 8, 2020, 5:57 am
#3800
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People dying sooner than later is still a failure, unless this is a game to worship at the altar of Mammon and drive down Sweden’s financial costs from the welfare system.
People still count as people — and so do their deaths — whichever place they may have last had listed as their residence. Be it a nursing home or poor neighborhood in Sweden or anywhere else in the country.
The Swedish pro-government propaganda even tried to maximize the “other-izing” of deaths, including by using terms to make “others” of those at risk — for example, “elderly elderly”. They wanted to keep a lot of 60-75 year old Swedes and their adult children on their side, and this was a way to do just that.
Swedes not being able to travel abroad annoyed a lot of Swedes as they usually take 4-6 weeks of their 5-7 weeks of vacation during the summer and count on charter trips within Europe as a seasonal meal ticket away from home duties.
People still count as people — and so do their deaths — whichever place they may have last had listed as their residence. Be it a nursing home or poor neighborhood in Sweden or anywhere else in the country.
The Swedish pro-government propaganda even tried to maximize the “other-izing” of deaths, including by using terms to make “others” of those at risk — for example, “elderly elderly”. They wanted to keep a lot of 60-75 year old Swedes and their adult children on their side, and this was a way to do just that.
Swedes not being able to travel abroad annoyed a lot of Swedes as they usually take 4-6 weeks of their 5-7 weeks of vacation during the summer and count on charter trips within Europe as a seasonal meal ticket away from home duties.
Last edited by GUWonder; Aug 8, 2020 at 6:14 am
Aug 8, 2020, 6:02 am
#3801
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Madison, WI, USA
Posts: 14,162
The appeal to sentiment might slide, but only if you ignore or miss the relevant points already raised by the ID experts. Which I bring up again for your learning benefit:
You can always skip or misread the considerations involved using this "only if you ignore all the deaths that don't count" theme of yours, for no one else assumes so. Such sacrifice/betrayal narratives are only good for provoking the sorts of political responses that pollute threads, though. Not my thing.
Simplistic and premature comparisons of death counts are barren of understanding. These are known to be pretextual exercises, but apparently it does not stop "x country approach failure" claims, despite the lack of support from criteria-based conditional analysis.
Your presumptions rarely correspond to that established in the best reports, whereas the "ignore all the deaths that just don't count" shtick is hardly interesting.
You can always skip or misread the considerations involved using this "only if you ignore all the deaths that don't count" theme of yours, for no one else assumes so. Such sacrifice/betrayal narratives are only good for provoking the sorts of political responses that pollute threads, though. Not my thing.
Simplistic and premature comparisons of death counts are barren of understanding. These are known to be pretextual exercises, but apparently it does not stop "x country approach failure" claims, despite the lack of support from criteria-based conditional analysis.
Your presumptions rarely correspond to that established in the best reports, whereas the "ignore all the deaths that just don't count" shtick is hardly interesting.
You're basing your argument on the man who refuses to admit his error. Not quite compelling, nor is your attempt to bury us with words yet again.
You haven't shown any expertise that proves your arguments any more compelling, nor are you quoting anything that actually constitutes proof of your position, and your personal attacks are simply invalid. You haven't proved anything -- you just have an agenda.
Last edited by PaulMSN; Aug 8, 2020 at 6:13 am
Aug 8, 2020, 6:15 am
#3802
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For centuries, humans understood that life comes with some risks that we have to accept. Somehow, we threw that away during this pandemic, but the ultimate question is how much life are we ready to give up to save lives. I think here in Europe people start to understand that, since we see many states staying open despite rising infection rate - returning to my analogy, they are now mandating seatbelts rather than ban cars.
Aug 8, 2020, 6:19 am
#3803
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Is allowing people to drive cars a failure? Because it costs lives. If some country forbade driving, they would have lower death rate than others - would those countries that allow cars be a failure? Or do we simply accept that the death rate is worth the benefits of being able to travel? Of course, we do take precautions to make driving safer, but we don't ban it (which would be an equivalent of lockdown seen in many EU states).
For centuries, humans understood that life comes with some risks that we have to accept. Somehow, we threw that away during this pandemic, but the ultimate question is how much life are we ready to give up to save lives. I think here in Europe people seem to understand that, since we see many states staying open despite rising infection rate - returning to my analogy, they are now mandating seatbelts rather than banning cars.
For centuries, humans understood that life comes with some risks that we have to accept. Somehow, we threw that away during this pandemic, but the ultimate question is how much life are we ready to give up to save lives. I think here in Europe people seem to understand that, since we see many states staying open despite rising infection rate - returning to my analogy, they are now mandating seatbelts rather than banning cars.
In many parts of the world, road fatalities fell due to restrictions and recommendations in place to reduce the risks from this virus spreading.
No country in Europe this summer aimed to eliminate all risks from this virus spreading. It was all about risk management, not risk elimination. Actually, of all the countries to which I've been outside Europe, none went for risk elimination. And I have been to China, Australia, NZ, Canada, India, Argentina and a bunch of others.
Aug 8, 2020, 6:21 am
#3804
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I'd put my money on the latter. We will accept that some people die, so most people can have a life. And same thing will happen / is happening with COVID.
Aug 8, 2020, 6:32 am
#3805
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I know. So, are we gonna keep restrictions on driving to avoid increase in road deaths? Or are we gonna be a failure by letting people drive once again, once the pandemic is over?
I'd put my money on the latter. We will accept that some people die, so most people can have a life. And same thing will happen / is happening with COVID.
I'd put my money on the latter. We will accept that some people die, so most people can have a life. And same thing will happen / is happening with COVID.
Not sure I would call this a season of success in Sweden by any measure, and I say that as someone who has been in the country more days than not during this year. I guess if your thing is to see more Swedes packing in Swedish beaches than usual, then sure.
It’s certainly helping some parts of the country to rack up parking fine revenue like crazy.
Aug 8, 2020, 6:43 am
#3806
Join Date: Sep 2015
Location: Between Seas
Posts: 4,730
While I agree with your closing about being way <too> early for a final assessment it is you who is trying to push a hail Sweden narrative while throwing around meaningless CCP accusations.
As of today, in EU/EEA/UK Sweden is number 4 on deaths per capita within the last 14 days only behind Romania, Bulgaria and Luxembourg at a whooping 0,9. The cumulative death rate for the EU/EEA/UK within this timeframe 0,41, less than a half.
On overall mortality rate due to Covid-19 Sweden is also number 4 in the EU with 57 deaths per 100k, only exceeded by Belgium (86), Spain (61) and Italy (58). In comparison the other EU countries with a large population (and therefore heavy weight on the statistics) in order: Germany 11, France 45, Poland 5, Romania 13, Netherlands 36, all well below Sweden.
So please stick to the facts.
As of today, in EU/EEA/UK Sweden is number 4 on deaths per capita within the last 14 days only behind Romania, Bulgaria and Luxembourg at a whooping 0,9. The cumulative death rate for the EU/EEA/UK within this timeframe 0,41, less than a half.
On overall mortality rate due to Covid-19 Sweden is also number 4 in the EU with 57 deaths per 100k, only exceeded by Belgium (86), Spain (61) and Italy (58). In comparison the other EU countries with a large population (and therefore heavy weight on the statistics) in order: Germany 11, France 45, Poland 5, Romania 13, Netherlands 36, all well below Sweden.
So please stick to the facts.
I agree that evaluating national responses is premature at best. For as I said before:
Others note that Sweden is part of a regional economy and cannot escape the knock-on effects of falling output and valuations elsewhere. They would maintain industrial capacity and consumer confidence to boost the coming recovery while neighbors struggle. It was the tactic of retaining suspect cases in nursing homes that proved most unsound, although they did sustain their healthcare system. This one failure accounts for almost 90% of Covid-19 deaths arising from fatality stratification, compounded by unfortunate risk assessments made from sparse information.
As the tables show, death rates are flattening, even as estimated infections rise to levels of penetration similar to that in other developed countries. With more interventions ahead that are being pioneered by the US and Sweden, I think it too early to assign "failure" or "success" to national responses, as was premature regarding Japan and Singapore.
As the tables show, death rates are flattening, even as estimated infections rise to levels of penetration similar to that in other developed countries. With more interventions ahead that are being pioneered by the US and Sweden, I think it too early to assign "failure" or "success" to national responses, as was premature regarding Japan and Singapore.
Coronavirus: Wuhan to ease lockdown as world battles pandemic
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-52016139
- In the last week we've heard Wuhan medics warning the UK and others that they need to do more to protect frontline health workers, citing the mistakes they made early on when some treated patients without wearing proper protective clothing. But there's also been reporting in state media of the reported death toll in Italy surpassing that in China. This has been combined with some commentary from prominent media figures that has appeared distasteful, almost triumphalist.
At the same time there is a panic about the threat of a second wave from imported cases - travellers arriving from abroad. This has fuelled the view - right or wrong - that some other countries aren't taking the threat seriously because they aren't doing what China did. (Almost all the cases in Beijing that have been made public are of Chinese nationals returning home).
Meanwhile, well away from senior leaders, there are some high-profile diplomatic figures using international-facing social media to spread theories that the US may have weaponised and dumped the virus in China. Or that Italy had cases that may have been Covid-19 earlier than China. China is sowing seeds of doubt and questioning assumed truths as it looks to repair its reputation. -
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-52016139
- In the last week we've heard Wuhan medics warning the UK and others that they need to do more to protect frontline health workers, citing the mistakes they made early on when some treated patients without wearing proper protective clothing. But there's also been reporting in state media of the reported death toll in Italy surpassing that in China. This has been combined with some commentary from prominent media figures that has appeared distasteful, almost triumphalist.
At the same time there is a panic about the threat of a second wave from imported cases - travellers arriving from abroad. This has fuelled the view - right or wrong - that some other countries aren't taking the threat seriously because they aren't doing what China did. (Almost all the cases in Beijing that have been made public are of Chinese nationals returning home).
Meanwhile, well away from senior leaders, there are some high-profile diplomatic figures using international-facing social media to spread theories that the US may have weaponised and dumped the virus in China. Or that Italy had cases that may have been Covid-19 earlier than China. China is sowing seeds of doubt and questioning assumed truths as it looks to repair its reputation. -
Last edited by FlitBen; Aug 8, 2020 at 9:02 am
Aug 8, 2020, 7:36 am
#3807
Join Date: Mar 2005
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I know. So, are we gonna keep restrictions on driving to avoid increase in road deaths? Or are we gonna be a failure by letting people drive once again, once the pandemic is over?
I'd put my money on the latter. We will accept that some people die, so most people can have a life. And same thing will happen / is happening with COVID.
I'd put my money on the latter. We will accept that some people die, so most people can have a life. And same thing will happen / is happening with COVID.
If I am not mistaken, in order to drive, one must follow certain guidelines, such as getting instruction on how to drive, passing licensing tests and re qualifications, having certain levels of health (vision, mental etc) and obeying the rules of the road which are enforced by police.
We could even go further and note that automobiles have to obey certain safety rules such as pollution control and required equipment such as seat belts.
The obvious intention of such rules and regulations is to minimize the impact of driving on a population's health and well-being, while permitting the use of a device which benefits society.
I do not think that when you are talking about a global pandemic, which impacts the health and well being of its population, that governments shouldn't institute certain rules and regulations in order minimize the impact of that disease on its people.
Just like the fact that some people would like to drive 250 km/hr on a highway, there will be some people who believe that following government mandated virus guidelines is not for them.
And just like some people will survive driving 250 km/hr, there will also be people who survive Covid while ignoring these guidelines such as those on travel and social distancing.
That does not mean that normal drivers benefited from the speeder's behavior and ......
that folks who follow mitigation behaviors benefit from those who choose to ignore them.
Aug 8, 2020, 4:48 pm
#3808
Join Date: Nov 2007
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Posts: 1,156
I would skip the simplistic ranked numbers comparison, if you don't mind. What is more useful to know is that Sweden's per-capita incidence curve is dropping closer to the EU average, although in a trends juxtaposition that ID experts would surely pan as well. But anyway, I use the raw global context so beloved of CCP propagandists just to show how Sweden is currently no disastrous outlier on such plots, which is Tegnell's point. Especially as theirs may soon trend the rest of a Europe now experiencing Covid-19 resurgence in many places.
.
.
To be clear, there is no reason to blame Sweden for it‘s pandemic approach. But there is also no reason for whitewashing the outcome as of today.
Aug 8, 2020, 6:40 pm
#3809
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Right. So Swedes got to live significantly better lifes for the last 3 months and the price is they can't go for a 2-week holiday in half-locked down countries? Not a terrible price to pay! And they are still welcome in many places that are fully opened and therefore much more attractive to visit.
Regarding deaths, of course they matter, no one claims otherwise. The big questions are how many people would die if Sweden took more strict approach (chances are many of those people would die anyway) and what will be the total numbers of deaths when the pandemic is over. Yes, Sweden did worse in a short-term but that's not a "failure", because their strategy always focused on a long-term. Right now we see other countries are catching up on Sweden - there still is a significant gap but it's closing. Failure would be if Swedish numbers were significantly higher when we look back in a year or two, after the pandemic's over.
Another thing to point out is that Sweden failed when it comes to protecting nursing homes. Everyone admits this, even local authorities. A lot of deaths are attributed to this, rather than Sweden's no-lockdown policies. If we deducted deaths caused by this terrible mistake, Swedish numbers would look much better.
Regarding deaths, of course they matter, no one claims otherwise. The big questions are how many people would die if Sweden took more strict approach (chances are many of those people would die anyway) and what will be the total numbers of deaths when the pandemic is over. Yes, Sweden did worse in a short-term but that's not a "failure", because their strategy always focused on a long-term. Right now we see other countries are catching up on Sweden - there still is a significant gap but it's closing. Failure would be if Swedish numbers were significantly higher when we look back in a year or two, after the pandemic's over.
Another thing to point out is that Sweden failed when it comes to protecting nursing homes. Everyone admits this, even local authorities. A lot of deaths are attributed to this, rather than Sweden's no-lockdown policies. If we deducted deaths caused by this terrible mistake, Swedish numbers would look much better.
Significantly better lives?
In what respect?
Aug 8, 2020, 6:42 pm
#3810
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Not sure if the empirical numbers yet back the following, but there are indications that finding jobs in Copenhagen is still way easier than finding jobs in southern Sweden at this time. Finding employees is far easier in urban parts of southern Sweden than in Copenhagen; and the historical gap may have even widened Sweden’s relative disadvantage to Denmark in this way.
I mean normally, not during the pandemic.