Mar 11, 2020, 10:13 am
Last edit by: Ocn Vw 1K
In order to reduce noise in the Coronavirus / Covid-19 : general fact-based reporting thread, and to create a central place to invite any member to ask a basic question about the impact of COVID-19 on travel, your moderators have decided to open this separate "lounge" thread for related discussion that isn't strictly fact-based reporting.
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Discussion of general economic impacts of Covid-19 belongs in the OMNI forum, not here.
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This is a protocol for posting adopted by the forum Moderator team:Please follow this protocol, based on FlyerTalk Rules and long-standing FlyerTalk best practices. Doing so will help keep the thread open, and allow our moderator team to aid members, rather than having to resort to discipline.
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Please stay healthy,
your FT Coronavirus and Travel Moderator Team.
Any member who can provide a constructive, helpful answer to a question; or post constructively in reply to a member's point-of-view, is welcome to post.
All FT rules apply, including avoiding personalized, snarky, political, other off-topic, commercial, and repeatedly disruptive content.
Discussion of general economic impacts of Covid-19 belongs in the OMNI forum, not here.
Discussion and critique of political/government actions to aid the economy or which is far more political than related to COVID-19 is for the OMNI/PR forum, not here.
This is a protocol for posting adopted by the forum Moderator team:Please follow this protocol, based on FlyerTalk Rules and long-standing FlyerTalk best practices. Doing so will help keep the thread open, and allow our moderator team to aid members, rather than having to resort to discipline.
•Constructive, respectful posts, views, opinions, questions, and replies, related to the topic are welcome. Avoid commenting on members personally, or posting off-topic or political messages.
•While respectful disagreement of a posted view is allowed, don’t call-out posters to prove their points. FlyerTalk has never required discussion standards at the level of a Ph.D. dissertation defense, or a trial court witness cross-examination.
•After a reasonable exchange of views on a point, please yield the floor so that others may bring up different topics, questions or points.
•Especially important in this time of pandemic, when normal life and travel have been upended: please take regular breaks from the thread.
Please stay healthy,
your FT Coronavirus and Travel Moderator Team.
COVID-19: Lounge thread for thoughts, concerns and questions
Mar 26, 2020, 11:26 pm
#1786
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: May 2004
Location: DFW/DAL
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Posts: 21,422
Mar 26, 2020, 11:34 pm
#1788
Moderator: American AAdvantage
Join Date: May 2000
Location: NorCal - SMF area
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Posts: 62,948
As this is about a broader topic than any specific Airkinel, it has been diverted to a new destination, the Coronavirus and travel forum.
JDiver, Moderator
JDiver, Moderator
Mar 26, 2020, 11:48 pm
#1789
Join Date: Oct 2015
Location: Pacific Wonderland
Programs: ʙᴏɴᴠo̱ʏ Au, IHG Au, HH Dia, Nexus, Pilot FlyingJ Preferred
Posts: 5,336
We are just in the middle of an epic pathetic failure of the CDC and the administration's lack of support for it to handle a crisis that is costing lives and destroyed the economy, and your concern is that the CDC will be too powerful and bureaucratic in the future? Unbelievable...
Mar 27, 2020, 12:44 am
#1790
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: May 2001
Posts: 10,969
In Taiwan, they have this "Central Epidemic Command Center" which is a multi-agency body that manages this. Their CDC by law formed the CECC on 1/20 when they deemed it necessary.
The designated Commander of the CECC is the Minister of Health and Welfare (I guess like the US HHS). He is a dentist by training. They have daily news conferences - 2 PM every day (but varies based on new cases). People in general thought he has done a good job.
When things escalated, the law says that his boss (Premier, they have a dual Presidential / Premier system) can be the Commander. However, he stayed as people trust his handling, so far.
The Commander runs the daily news conference. High level officials from other agencies sit next to him when appropriate (e.g. Immigration, Transportation, Foreign Affairs, Mainland China Affairs, etc.) and things got done quickly. For example, they integrated the immigration and health insurance systems so the doctors and hospitals can see if a person has just returned from overseas when they insert the national health insurance card. No meddling from his superiors
Obviously there have been political considerations in the decisions (e.g. TW still calls the virus WuHan Virus as the DPP government hates Mainland China) and some of the stuff was not done perfectly (e.g. mask supplies, not barring foreigners / tracking people returning from Europe/US/Middle East early enough, leaving their own people in WuHan/HuBei - even to this day). However, the guy instills confidence so even the opposition party has not objected much.
All that said, their cases have basically quadrupled the last 10 days - mostly from returning residents / students and some kind of community spread is feared and expected. So, it will be interesting to see how this works out in a few weeks and how people feel about the government's handling then.
The designated Commander of the CECC is the Minister of Health and Welfare (I guess like the US HHS). He is a dentist by training. They have daily news conferences - 2 PM every day (but varies based on new cases). People in general thought he has done a good job.
When things escalated, the law says that his boss (Premier, they have a dual Presidential / Premier system) can be the Commander. However, he stayed as people trust his handling, so far.
The Commander runs the daily news conference. High level officials from other agencies sit next to him when appropriate (e.g. Immigration, Transportation, Foreign Affairs, Mainland China Affairs, etc.) and things got done quickly. For example, they integrated the immigration and health insurance systems so the doctors and hospitals can see if a person has just returned from overseas when they insert the national health insurance card. No meddling from his superiors
Obviously there have been political considerations in the decisions (e.g. TW still calls the virus WuHan Virus as the DPP government hates Mainland China) and some of the stuff was not done perfectly (e.g. mask supplies, not barring foreigners / tracking people returning from Europe/US/Middle East early enough, leaving their own people in WuHan/HuBei - even to this day). However, the guy instills confidence so even the opposition party has not objected much.
All that said, their cases have basically quadrupled the last 10 days - mostly from returning residents / students and some kind of community spread is feared and expected. So, it will be interesting to see how this works out in a few weeks and how people feel about the government's handling then.
Mar 27, 2020, 1:05 am
#1791
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Madison, WI, USA
Posts: 14,162
It's interesting. Why will none of these states publish the models and data into the public domain, for them to actually be peer reviewed/critiqued? If these experts are so sure that their modelling is correct, let others review it and confirm it. Until then I'm left baffled how one model can predict 60% of the population will be infected, Minnesota is stating 40% of their population will ikely be infected, meanwhile I had a colleague send me an update today that Illinois department of health is finding only expecting 1% of their population to be infected.
No proof? Sorry I can't post people's medical records online showing what interventions the vast majority of non-ICU patients are receiving. And when I did make an argument for this, the reply was deflecting to a different reason then, "we can't treat people at home because healthcare system putting them on dangerous medications that need to be monitored in the hospital" [they don't, which I addressed in my earlier response], and "people can't go home if they're infected because they can infect others in their building via central duct systems" [only if they don't maintain distancing, but this is not an aerosol spread virus, and 90% of positive cases are already being handled at home, which I also pointed out in my earlier response]. Which my replies were then ignored because the person had already made up their mind that obviously no one could be treated at home and they just parroted the same responses. The other thing I said was suggesting we should do that, BECAUSE DOCTORS IN ITALY SAID THEY WISHED THEY TREATED MORE PEOPLE AT HOME and pleaded with other countries to do that, for their own sake. https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/21/...ients-at-home/
No proof? Sorry I can't post people's medical records online showing what interventions the vast majority of non-ICU patients are receiving. And when I did make an argument for this, the reply was deflecting to a different reason then, "we can't treat people at home because healthcare system putting them on dangerous medications that need to be monitored in the hospital" [they don't, which I addressed in my earlier response], and "people can't go home if they're infected because they can infect others in their building via central duct systems" [only if they don't maintain distancing, but this is not an aerosol spread virus, and 90% of positive cases are already being handled at home, which I also pointed out in my earlier response]. Which my replies were then ignored because the person had already made up their mind that obviously no one could be treated at home and they just parroted the same responses. The other thing I said was suggesting we should do that, BECAUSE DOCTORS IN ITALY SAID THEY WISHED THEY TREATED MORE PEOPLE AT HOME and pleaded with other countries to do that, for their own sake. https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/21/...ients-at-home/
Mar 27, 2020, 1:13 am
#1792
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Virginia City Highlands
Programs: Nothing anymore after 20 years
Posts: 6,900
People who will live thru this will never going to forget it until end of their lives and would never want to have anything like this repeated.
Mar 27, 2020, 2:51 am
#1793
Suspended
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: Watchlisted by the prejudiced, en route to purgatory
Programs: Just Say No to Fleecing and Blacklisting
Posts: 102,095
The US aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt has a handful of positive cases of this virus amongst the personnel. That’s probably the tip of the iceberg for that vessel.
In India, doctors and other healthcare workers are being evicted and hassled by landlords or being otherwise ostracized by people concerned about this virus coming with or from people at or using the healthcare system. Some people may come around to feeling that maybe in the chaos of India it’s the hysteria that is worse than an overload of the healthcare system and lifespans being cut short by this virus spread.
Hysteria and panic tears at the fabric of society and undermines the ability of otherwise capable parties to assist in such situations. Let’s hope we see less of that and more solidarity — with “social distancing” in mind — instead of alienation and hostility.
In India, doctors and other healthcare workers are being evicted and hassled by landlords or being otherwise ostracized by people concerned about this virus coming with or from people at or using the healthcare system. Some people may come around to feeling that maybe in the chaos of India it’s the hysteria that is worse than an overload of the healthcare system and lifespans being cut short by this virus spread.
Hysteria and panic tears at the fabric of society and undermines the ability of otherwise capable parties to assist in such situations. Let’s hope we see less of that and more solidarity — with “social distancing” in mind — instead of alienation and hostility.
Mar 27, 2020, 3:16 am
#1794
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Madison, WI, USA
Posts: 14,162
Mar 27, 2020, 4:48 am
#1795
Join Date: Sep 2015
Location: Between Seas
Posts: 4,741
Your post merely bolsters my point upthread that it was mostly local Wuhan officials trying to hide the severity of the problem. If you're going to use that as condemnation of the Chinese government, then what about the US, where the president tried to hide the seriousness of the issue for weeks, even though he was told better? Plus there's the missteps of the CDC during that time. That's all top-level mistakes. -
US health agencies and State governments run in democratic terrain with subsidiarity and are far from such corruption or dishonesty. If you had read previous articles, you would have learned how officials struggled to keep pace with developments in the field, even as the White House came under domestic political attack.
Democrats’ Misleading Coronavirus Claims
- “So let me clarify,” Fauci said. “I have never been muzzled ever, and I’ve been doing this since the administration of Ronald Reagan. I’m not being muzzled by this administration. What happened — which was misinterpreted — is that we were set up to go on some shows, and when the vice president took over, we said, ‘Let’s regroup and figure out how we’re going to be communicating.’ So I had to just stand down on a couple of shows and resubmit for clearance. And when I resubmitted for clearance, I got cleared. So I have not been muzzled at all. That was a real misrepresentation of what happened.”
In a teleconference after Trump’s press conference, another government scientist, Nancy Messonnier, director of CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, provided further updates on the virus. Nonetheless, Biden continued to press the line of attack that Trump “should let the scientists speak” and that Trump was “muzzling the scientist.”
Fauci did not appear on any of the Sunday political talk shows. Instead, Pence and Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar went on the shows to talk about the epidemic and the administration’s response. But Fauci and others have continued to speak publicly to the press. For example, Fauci spoke at length about the coronavirus epidemic on CNN’s “New Day” on March 2.
Readers can make what they will of the White House’s decision to centralize its public coronavirus response — which requires government scientists to clear their public appearances through the task force — but government scientists have not been “silenced” or “muzzled.” -
- “So let me clarify,” Fauci said. “I have never been muzzled ever, and I’ve been doing this since the administration of Ronald Reagan. I’m not being muzzled by this administration. What happened — which was misinterpreted — is that we were set up to go on some shows, and when the vice president took over, we said, ‘Let’s regroup and figure out how we’re going to be communicating.’ So I had to just stand down on a couple of shows and resubmit for clearance. And when I resubmitted for clearance, I got cleared. So I have not been muzzled at all. That was a real misrepresentation of what happened.”
In a teleconference after Trump’s press conference, another government scientist, Nancy Messonnier, director of CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, provided further updates on the virus. Nonetheless, Biden continued to press the line of attack that Trump “should let the scientists speak” and that Trump was “muzzling the scientist.”
Fauci did not appear on any of the Sunday political talk shows. Instead, Pence and Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar went on the shows to talk about the epidemic and the administration’s response. But Fauci and others have continued to speak publicly to the press. For example, Fauci spoke at length about the coronavirus epidemic on CNN’s “New Day” on March 2.
Readers can make what they will of the White House’s decision to centralize its public coronavirus response — which requires government scientists to clear their public appearances through the task force — but government scientists have not been “silenced” or “muzzled.” -
Internal Emails Show How Chaos at the CDC Slowed the Early Response to Coronavirus
- During the period in which the correspondence was written, from January to early March, health officials were trying to stay ahead of the coronavirus outbreak underway in China. By mid-February, when the CDC job postings email went out, the virus had a toehold in the United States, where there were already 15 confirmed cases. In another two weeks, the first case of community transmission would be reported in California, followed shortly by cases in Washington. -
- The CDC confirmed the first case of COVID-19 in Washington on Jan 20. Trevor Bedford, a computational epidemiologist at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle, has said he believes that the virus could have begun circulating in the state immediately after the traveler arrived in mid-January, based on his analysis of genetic data from the initial Washington cases.
The CDC said in its statement that Redfield’s comments were based on the data available at the time. “At no time, did he underestimate the potential for COVID-19 becoming a global pandemic,” the agency’s statement said. “He stated consistently that more cases, including person to person spread, were likely.” -
- During the period in which the correspondence was written, from January to early March, health officials were trying to stay ahead of the coronavirus outbreak underway in China. By mid-February, when the CDC job postings email went out, the virus had a toehold in the United States, where there were already 15 confirmed cases. In another two weeks, the first case of community transmission would be reported in California, followed shortly by cases in Washington. -
- The CDC confirmed the first case of COVID-19 in Washington on Jan 20. Trevor Bedford, a computational epidemiologist at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle, has said he believes that the virus could have begun circulating in the state immediately after the traveler arrived in mid-January, based on his analysis of genetic data from the initial Washington cases.
The CDC said in its statement that Redfield’s comments were based on the data available at the time. “At no time, did he underestimate the potential for COVID-19 becoming a global pandemic,” the agency’s statement said. “He stated consistently that more cases, including person to person spread, were likely.” -
[Overly political commentary deleted by Moderator as off-topic for this forum but may be posted in OMNI/PR.]
Last edited by FlitBen; Mar 27, 2020 at 7:54 pm Reason: See notes above.
Mar 27, 2020, 5:58 am
#1796
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 41
A couple of weeks ago I suggested on this tread that international travel be halted for many many months ahead and many of you said “no way of happening.”
You’re welcome.
You’re welcome.
Mar 27, 2020, 6:07 am
#1797
Suspended
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Bregenz, Austria
Programs: AA, BAEC, Alaska, Flying Blue, United, IHG, Hilton
Posts: 2,950
Many things which we considered impossible have happened.
Mar 27, 2020, 6:25 am
#1798
Join Date: May 2010
Location: AVP & PEK
Programs: UA 1K 1.8MM
Posts: 6,349
One anecdotal reason why the US is #1 and doomed, IMO:
We're washing our horses outside prior to putting them in the barn yesterday evening.
Neighbor drives over, and hops out of his car. He's usually a bit of a "close-talker", so I ask him to observe physical distancing.
He keeps approaching, so I again ask him to maintain physical distance. He proceeds to approach whilst insisting: "I don't have it, don't worry!".
I grab and don my N99 mask.
He immediately gets annoyed, mumbles something, turns around and leaves in a huff.
In stark contrast to this from several months ago from China:
We're washing our horses outside prior to putting them in the barn yesterday evening.
Neighbor drives over, and hops out of his car. He's usually a bit of a "close-talker", so I ask him to observe physical distancing.
He keeps approaching, so I again ask him to maintain physical distance. He proceeds to approach whilst insisting: "I don't have it, don't worry!".
I grab and don my N99 mask.
He immediately gets annoyed, mumbles something, turns around and leaves in a huff.
In stark contrast to this from several months ago from China:
I recall a story from a Chinese work colleague who took his kid outside in January in Beijing.
He was in the park alone until a man came with his kid. They approached each other but stopped short, maybe 20ft apart. They then had a conversation while their kids stayed close to their respective parent.
He was in the park alone until a man came with his kid. They approached each other but stopped short, maybe 20ft apart. They then had a conversation while their kids stayed close to their respective parent.
Mar 27, 2020, 6:33 am
#1799
Suspended
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: Watchlisted by the prejudiced, en route to purgatory
Programs: Just Say No to Fleecing and Blacklisting
Posts: 102,095
It takes time to learn some new social norms, and it’s hard to give up old habits. So it will be the case with “social distancing” too. But longer term, social distancing is probably not good for a mammalian species given isolation tends to be bad for immune system development and leave species or a member of a species more susceptible in some way. Lots of indigenous people in the Americas got wiped out by diseases as a result of European colonization of the Americas, while European colonization of parts of Asia and Africa worked out a different way for the encountered peoples.
There is a difference between what is impossible and what is extremely unlikely to be experienced by an individual during a specified period of time or even over an endless time period.
My suggestion is to see what was gamed out by and on behalf of the USG for the worst case scenario with an Ebola mutation into a pathogen whose carriers end up being asymptomatic for a longer period of time.
Even before the age of everyone having a computer of sorts on their person or at home and workplace, this kind of stuff was done as part of national preparedness planning for responding to biowarfare agent use against us and allies.
We had a 2016 playbook on how to deal with this stuff. It could have been used in 2020, but it wasn’t used from the get go despite being available to fingertips in the White House and the building over.
My suggestion is to see what was gamed out by and on behalf of the USG for the worst case scenario with an Ebola mutation into a pathogen whose carriers end up being asymptomatic for a longer period of time.
Even before the age of everyone having a computer of sorts on their person or at home and workplace, this kind of stuff was done as part of national preparedness planning for responding to biowarfare agent use against us and allies.
We had a 2016 playbook on how to deal with this stuff. It could have been used in 2020, but it wasn’t used from the get go despite being available to fingertips in the White House and the building over.
Last edited by GUWonder; Mar 27, 2020 at 6:41 am
Mar 27, 2020, 7:44 am
#1800
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 6,752
It's never possible nor desirable to reduce risk to zero. Our entire society is based on prudent risk taking, and I have faith in the American people to return these decisions to them, and have each to make for himself/herself. While continuing to practice vigorous mitigation, those who prefer to avoid risk should do so. Those who are in the high risk demographics should be isolated and protected. Those of us who are willing and able to accept the risk should be allowed to do our part and ensure we'll continue to have abundant resources to address not only the current but also future societal concerns.