Mar 11, 2020, 10:13 am
Last edit by: Ocn Vw 1K
In order to reduce noise in the Coronavirus / Covid-19 : general fact-based reporting thread, and to create a central place to invite any member to ask a basic question about the impact of COVID-19 on travel, your moderators have decided to open this separate "lounge" thread for related discussion that isn't strictly fact-based reporting.
Any member who can provide a constructive, helpful answer to a question; or post constructively in reply to a member's point-of-view, is welcome to post.
All FT rules apply, including avoiding personalized, snarky, political, other off-topic, commercial, and repeatedly disruptive content.
Discussion of general economic impacts of Covid-19 belongs in the OMNI forum, not here.
Discussion and critique of political/government actions to aid the economy or which is far more political than related to COVID-19 is for the OMNI/PR forum, not here.
This is a protocol for posting adopted by the forum Moderator team:Please follow this protocol, based on FlyerTalk Rules and long-standing FlyerTalk best practices. Doing so will help keep the thread open, and allow our moderator team to aid members, rather than having to resort to discipline.
•Constructive, respectful posts, views, opinions, questions, and replies, related to the topic are welcome. Avoid commenting on members personally, or posting off-topic or political messages.
•While respectful disagreement of a posted view is allowed, don’t call-out posters to prove their points. FlyerTalk has never required discussion standards at the level of a Ph.D. dissertation defense, or a trial court witness cross-examination.
•After a reasonable exchange of views on a point, please yield the floor so that others may bring up different topics, questions or points.
•Especially important in this time of pandemic, when normal life and travel have been upended: please take regular breaks from the thread.
Please stay healthy,
your FT Coronavirus and Travel Moderator Team.
Any member who can provide a constructive, helpful answer to a question; or post constructively in reply to a member's point-of-view, is welcome to post.
All FT rules apply, including avoiding personalized, snarky, political, other off-topic, commercial, and repeatedly disruptive content.
Discussion of general economic impacts of Covid-19 belongs in the OMNI forum, not here.
Discussion and critique of political/government actions to aid the economy or which is far more political than related to COVID-19 is for the OMNI/PR forum, not here.
This is a protocol for posting adopted by the forum Moderator team:Please follow this protocol, based on FlyerTalk Rules and long-standing FlyerTalk best practices. Doing so will help keep the thread open, and allow our moderator team to aid members, rather than having to resort to discipline.
•Constructive, respectful posts, views, opinions, questions, and replies, related to the topic are welcome. Avoid commenting on members personally, or posting off-topic or political messages.
•While respectful disagreement of a posted view is allowed, don’t call-out posters to prove their points. FlyerTalk has never required discussion standards at the level of a Ph.D. dissertation defense, or a trial court witness cross-examination.
•After a reasonable exchange of views on a point, please yield the floor so that others may bring up different topics, questions or points.
•Especially important in this time of pandemic, when normal life and travel have been upended: please take regular breaks from the thread.
Please stay healthy,
your FT Coronavirus and Travel Moderator Team.
COVID-19: Lounge thread for thoughts, concerns and questions
Mar 26, 2020, 11:11 am
#1726
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Pacific Northwest
Programs: UA Gold 1MM, AS 75k, AA Plat, Bonvoyed Gold, Honors Dia, Hyatt Explorer, IHG Plat, ...
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”In total, in an unmitigated epidemic, we would predict approximately 510,000 deaths in GB and 2.2 million in the US, not accounting for the potential negative effects of health systems being overwhelmed on mortality.“
The UK has implemented strict mitigation measures, and as I understand it, Ferguson’s revised estimates are based on new R0 data and actual implemented restrictions.
I haven’t listed to Ferguson’s recent thoughts, but you can if you truly care (instead of accepting the filter of an “American right-wing, conservative news and opinion website” (Wikipedia))
Here is somewhat of a summary from Imperial College: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/1964...-mps-lockdown/
Mar 26, 2020, 11:13 am
#1727
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Pacific Northwest
Programs: UA Gold 1MM, AS 75k, AA Plat, Bonvoyed Gold, Honors Dia, Hyatt Explorer, IHG Plat, ...
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I use the self-checkout station.
Mar 26, 2020, 11:16 am
#1728
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 6,752
That's all care about. If the price we were coerced into paying was justified or not. It it were, fine. If not, I want heads on a pike (figure of speech, not to be take literally).
Mar 26, 2020, 11:25 am
#1729
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: Taipei / NZ
Programs: CX Gold, WOH Globalist , BonVoy Plat
Posts: 43
As the borders all over the world tightened, some even restricted transit. There are three passengers stranded in Taipei Taoyuan International Airport. Air NZ flew three transit passengers on NZ77 and their ground staff were not aware that Taiwan banned transit. Thus, these three passengers were refused boarding at Taiwan boarders onto Shanghai and Japan.
Air Nz stated that they couldn’t deport them back to Auckland as NZ is currently lock down.
What would happen to these three passengers? They are not allow to transit, nor permit entrance to Taiwan. Also they can not go back to NZ.
passenger info: 1 UK citizen onto Shanghai, 2 Japanese citizens onto Japan
Air Nz stated that they couldn’t deport them back to Auckland as NZ is currently lock down.
What would happen to these three passengers? They are not allow to transit, nor permit entrance to Taiwan. Also they can not go back to NZ.
passenger info: 1 UK citizen onto Shanghai, 2 Japanese citizens onto Japan
Mar 26, 2020, 11:36 am
#1730
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Pacific Northwest
Programs: UA Gold 1MM, AS 75k, AA Plat, Bonvoyed Gold, Honors Dia, Hyatt Explorer, IHG Plat, ...
Posts: 16,846
Mar 26, 2020, 11:37 am
#1731
Suspended
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Bay Area
Programs: DL SM, UA MP.
Posts: 12,729
Here’s how coronavirus spreads on a plane—and the safest place to sit - fascinating article published by National Geographic:
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/s...ds-on-a-plane/
But then you have to go to the lavatory and you don't know if the flight attendants are infected.
Mar 26, 2020, 11:43 am
#1732
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Pacific Northwest
Programs: UA Gold 1MM, AS 75k, AA Plat, Bonvoyed Gold, Honors Dia, Hyatt Explorer, IHG Plat, ...
Posts: 16,846
It's the direct person to person close contact that poses a greater risk than a surface which can (and should be) sanitized multiple times per day just like any other high touch surface in a business, and can be further mitigated through gloves and washing/sanitizing hands after. Most people are not keeping their windows rolled up and even if they do, lower cars still aren't a great impediment to direct spread. Easy incremental steps that should be taken but won't.
Compared to other incremental steps that many people resist I think the gain is just minimal. How often do you have to fill up these days, i.e., how many direct person to person encounters will you have?
Mar 26, 2020, 11:46 am
#1733
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: May 2015
Location: BOS, YVR, ZRH
Programs: *G
Posts: 17,399
I'm a bottom-line like kind of guy. When we get the data, and we will, if the mortality isn't anywhere near what I was told, I'm gonna want to know why and how these decisions were made. In addition, *if* this guy's stuff was used, I want the due diligence on it.
That's all care about. If the price we were coerced into paying was justified or not. It it were, fine. If not, I want heads on a pike (figure of speech, not to be take literally).
That's all care about. If the price we were coerced into paying was justified or not. It it were, fine. If not, I want heads on a pike (figure of speech, not to be take literally).
Mar 26, 2020, 11:47 am
#1734
Join Date: Nov 2018
Posts: 765
As the borders all over the world tightened, some even restricted transit. There are three passengers stranded in Taipei Taoyuan International Airport. Air NZ flew three transit passengers on NZ77 and their ground staff were not aware that Taiwan banned transit. Thus, these three passengers were refused boarding at Taiwan boarders onto Shanghai and Japan.
Air Nz stated that they couldn’t deport them back to Auckland as NZ is currently lock down.
What would happen to these three passengers? They are not allow to transit, nor permit entrance to Taiwan. Also they can not go back to NZ.
passenger info: 1 UK citizen onto Shanghai, 2 Japanese citizens onto Japan
Air Nz stated that they couldn’t deport them back to Auckland as NZ is currently lock down.
What would happen to these three passengers? They are not allow to transit, nor permit entrance to Taiwan. Also they can not go back to NZ.
passenger info: 1 UK citizen onto Shanghai, 2 Japanese citizens onto Japan
Mar 26, 2020, 11:49 am
#1735
Ambassador, Hong Kong and Macau
Join Date: May 2009
Location: HKG
Programs: Non-top tier Asia Miles member
Posts: 19,800
Mar 26, 2020, 11:50 am
#1736
Join Date: Sep 2012
Location: NW London and NW Sydney
Programs: BA Diamond, Hilton Bronze, A3 Diamond, IHG *G
Posts: 6,344
Completely agree. It was an unfortunate term that sadly stuck.
Wikipedia, at least, uses "Social distancing, or physical distancing" under the "Social distancing" entry.
It also has this: "lt has been requested that the title of this article be changed to Physical distancing"
I hope it gets changed.
I recall a story from a Chinese work colleague who took his kid outside in January in Beijing.
He was in the park alone until a man came with his kid. They approached each other but stopped short, maybe 20ft apart. They then had a conversation while their kids stayed close to their respective parent. How is that Social Distancing?
They socially interacted whilst maintaining a physical distance.
Wikipedia, at least, uses "Social distancing, or physical distancing" under the "Social distancing" entry.
It also has this: "lt has been requested that the title of this article be changed to Physical distancing"
I hope it gets changed.
I recall a story from a Chinese work colleague who took his kid outside in January in Beijing.
He was in the park alone until a man came with his kid. They approached each other but stopped short, maybe 20ft apart. They then had a conversation while their kids stayed close to their respective parent. How is that Social Distancing?
They socially interacted whilst maintaining a physical distance.
The unfortunate term that sadly stuck is "coronavirus".
Mar 26, 2020, 11:55 am
#1737
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 6,752
Generally, I couldn't care less what our Gov't does or doesn't do, so long as they leave me alone. However, this time, they've restricted my freedom and forced upon the entire nation an astronomical price. This is fine, if justified. On something like this, it's important they were right. If they were wrong, they all need to go. There can be no excuses or justification for being wrong on what our Gov't has chosen to do here.
Mar 26, 2020, 11:56 am
#1738
Suspended
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Bay Area
Programs: DL SM, UA MP.
Posts: 12,729
Reinfection vs. Repeated exposure
The reinfection question is key, about the long-term trajectory of this disease. Let's hope reinfection isn't possible.
But what about people who are repeatedly exposed to people shedding viruses? What if doctors and nurses become infected and their immune systems are able to fight off the infections but they are exposed to additional viral loads and their bodies can't fight off these viral loads?
Let's say you have a number of antibodies for some period after recovery but you're repeatedly exposed to people or situations where your body consumes more viral loads. Is there some threshold above which antibodies can't handle the amount of viral load in your body?
That may be what we're seeing with some accounts of certain drugs, that they work early on or in mild or moderate cases but once the disease has progressed to a critical level, the drugs aren't enough to stop the replication of the virus?
The reinfection question is key, about the long-term trajectory of this disease. Let's hope reinfection isn't possible.
But what about people who are repeatedly exposed to people shedding viruses? What if doctors and nurses become infected and their immune systems are able to fight off the infections but they are exposed to additional viral loads and their bodies can't fight off these viral loads?
Let's say you have a number of antibodies for some period after recovery but you're repeatedly exposed to people or situations where your body consumes more viral loads. Is there some threshold above which antibodies can't handle the amount of viral load in your body?
That may be what we're seeing with some accounts of certain drugs, that they work early on or in mild or moderate cases but once the disease has progressed to a critical level, the drugs aren't enough to stop the replication of the virus?
Mar 26, 2020, 11:57 am
#1739
Ambassador, Hong Kong and Macau
Join Date: May 2009
Location: HKG
Programs: Non-top tier Asia Miles member
Posts: 19,800
As the borders all over the world tightened, some even restricted transit. There are three passengers stranded in Taipei Taoyuan International Airport. Air NZ flew three transit passengers on NZ77 and their ground staff were not aware that Taiwan banned transit. Thus, these three passengers were refused boarding at Taiwan boarders onto Shanghai and Japan.
Air Nz stated that they couldn’t deport them back to Auckland as NZ is currently lock down.
What would happen to these three passengers? They are not allow to transit, nor permit entrance to Taiwan. Also they can not go back to NZ.
passenger info: 1 UK citizen onto Shanghai, 2 Japanese citizens onto Japan
Air Nz stated that they couldn’t deport them back to Auckland as NZ is currently lock down.
What would happen to these three passengers? They are not allow to transit, nor permit entrance to Taiwan. Also they can not go back to NZ.
passenger info: 1 UK citizen onto Shanghai, 2 Japanese citizens onto Japan
They made some "peaceful representations".
I read thru the Timatic instructions, the part about "their permitted stay of 7 days is less than the quarantine" was not explicit, I think it's CAA's fault.
Airport Authority Hong Kong seem to agree and managed to persuade Immigration Department to allow four coaches of chartered buses to conduct a sterile transfer of the stranded Mainland passport holders to the Shenzhen Bay border.
Mar 26, 2020, 12:17 pm
#1740
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: Taipei / NZ
Programs: CX Gold, WOH Globalist , BonVoy Plat
Posts: 43
On the day HK imposed 14-day quarantine against the world, HK had a bunch of Mainland passport transit pax from overseas who were boarded on the presumption Mainland passport 7 day landside transit has not been revoked. It has not; however, since they have to be quarantined for 14 days (the landside transit is not sterile - it's just any old bus to the Mainland and you can even make a trip of 7 days in Hong Kong) but their permitted stay is below that, they were not allowed to land.
They made some "peaceful representations".
I read thru the Timatic instructions, the part about "their permitted stay of 7 days is less than the quarantine" was not explicit, I think it's CAA's fault.
Airport Authority Hong Kong seem to agree and managed to persuade Immigration Department to allow four coaches of chartered buses to conduct a sterile transfer of the stranded Mainland passport holders to the Shenzhen Bay border.
They made some "peaceful representations".
I read thru the Timatic instructions, the part about "their permitted stay of 7 days is less than the quarantine" was not explicit, I think it's CAA's fault.
Airport Authority Hong Kong seem to agree and managed to persuade Immigration Department to allow four coaches of chartered buses to conduct a sterile transfer of the stranded Mainland passport holders to the Shenzhen Bay border.
I guess at the end of the day they might fly back to Auckland n transit there.