Mar 11, 2020, 10:13 am
Last edit by: Ocn Vw 1K
In order to reduce noise in the Coronavirus / Covid-19 : general fact-based reporting thread, and to create a central place to invite any member to ask a basic question about the impact of COVID-19 on travel, your moderators have decided to open this separate "lounge" thread for related discussion that isn't strictly fact-based reporting.
Any member who can provide a constructive, helpful answer to a question; or post constructively in reply to a member's point-of-view, is welcome to post.
All FT rules apply, including avoiding personalized, snarky, political, other off-topic, commercial, and repeatedly disruptive content.
Discussion of general economic impacts of Covid-19 belongs in the OMNI forum, not here.
Discussion and critique of political/government actions to aid the economy or which is far more political than related to COVID-19 is for the OMNI/PR forum, not here.
This is a protocol for posting adopted by the forum Moderator team:Please follow this protocol, based on FlyerTalk Rules and long-standing FlyerTalk best practices. Doing so will help keep the thread open, and allow our moderator team to aid members, rather than having to resort to discipline.
•Constructive, respectful posts, views, opinions, questions, and replies, related to the topic are welcome. Avoid commenting on members personally, or posting off-topic or political messages.
•While respectful disagreement of a posted view is allowed, don’t call-out posters to prove their points. FlyerTalk has never required discussion standards at the level of a Ph.D. dissertation defense, or a trial court witness cross-examination.
•After a reasonable exchange of views on a point, please yield the floor so that others may bring up different topics, questions or points.
•Especially important in this time of pandemic, when normal life and travel have been upended: please take regular breaks from the thread.
Please stay healthy,
your FT Coronavirus and Travel Moderator Team.
Any member who can provide a constructive, helpful answer to a question; or post constructively in reply to a member's point-of-view, is welcome to post.
All FT rules apply, including avoiding personalized, snarky, political, other off-topic, commercial, and repeatedly disruptive content.
Discussion of general economic impacts of Covid-19 belongs in the OMNI forum, not here.
Discussion and critique of political/government actions to aid the economy or which is far more political than related to COVID-19 is for the OMNI/PR forum, not here.
This is a protocol for posting adopted by the forum Moderator team:Please follow this protocol, based on FlyerTalk Rules and long-standing FlyerTalk best practices. Doing so will help keep the thread open, and allow our moderator team to aid members, rather than having to resort to discipline.
•Constructive, respectful posts, views, opinions, questions, and replies, related to the topic are welcome. Avoid commenting on members personally, or posting off-topic or political messages.
•While respectful disagreement of a posted view is allowed, don’t call-out posters to prove their points. FlyerTalk has never required discussion standards at the level of a Ph.D. dissertation defense, or a trial court witness cross-examination.
•After a reasonable exchange of views on a point, please yield the floor so that others may bring up different topics, questions or points.
•Especially important in this time of pandemic, when normal life and travel have been upended: please take regular breaks from the thread.
Please stay healthy,
your FT Coronavirus and Travel Moderator Team.
COVID-19: Lounge thread for thoughts, concerns and questions
Mar 25, 2020, 9:32 pm
#1651
Join Date: Oct 2013
Location: SFO
Programs: UA 1K, AA EXP, Hyatt Glob, Hilton Diamond, Marriott Plat, Total Wine & More Reserve
Posts: 4,498
Again, to those who prefer to reduce risk whether it's on this or anything else, please feel free to do so. I'm open to ideas, but I will categorically reject any notion or suggestion to shut down our economy or country until the risk is reduced to zero or near 0. In 30 days, if SF/CA restrictions aren't lifted, we'll just have to see what a Fed Judge has to say about that.
https://www.latimes.com/opinion/stor...virus-covid-19
Mar 25, 2020, 9:47 pm
#1652
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: NY
Programs: AA, Hilton
Posts: 1,575
It’s PHYSICAL distancing. Enough with the social nonsense
Words should be owed a certain importance. It’s PHYSICAL distancing we need to be mindful of. You can be social otherwise.....
Mar 25, 2020, 9:51 pm
#1653
Join Date: Oct 2015
Location: Pacific Wonderland
Programs: ʙᴏɴᴠo̱ʏ Au, IHG Au, HH Dia, Nexus, Pilot FlyingJ Preferred
Posts: 5,336
Column in today's LA Times broaching on that topic
https://www.latimes.com/opinion/stor...virus-covid-19
https://www.latimes.com/opinion/stor...virus-covid-19
Mar 25, 2020, 10:00 pm
#1654
Suspended
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Bay Area
Programs: DL SM, UA MP.
Posts: 12,729
Tonight's press release from the NYC Health Department provides even more evidence that coronavirus is not a life-threatening disease for the vast majority of Americans. It is a deadly disease for the old and sick. Of the 241 deaths so far tracked, only 9 did not have a serious pre-existing condition (most of these 9 were almost certainly very old, but the NYC data doesn't specifically provide this information: they do tell us that half the total victims were 75 or older).
Given this reality, it is more than obvious that, after flattening the infection curve, we need to transition to a strategy that devotes extraordinary resources to protect the old and ill but allows the rest of the country to get back to their lives and save us from an economic disaster that would certainly cause even more illness and death. The cure cannot be worse than the disease. Facts matter. NYC should probably stay home longer than the rest of the country, but the current strategy needs to be modified.
https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/down...ary-deaths.pdf
Given this reality, it is more than obvious that, after flattening the infection curve, we need to transition to a strategy that devotes extraordinary resources to protect the old and ill but allows the rest of the country to get back to their lives and save us from an economic disaster that would certainly cause even more illness and death. The cure cannot be worse than the disease. Facts matter. NYC should probably stay home longer than the rest of the country, but the current strategy needs to be modified.
https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/down...ary-deaths.pdf
Some preexisting conditions are very common though.
There are probably tens of millions with heart disease, diabetes, hypertension etc.
Even despite these, their expected life spans are decades.
Mar 25, 2020, 10:06 pm
#1655
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Aug 2014
Programs: Top Tier with all 3 alliances
Posts: 11,663
13,335 new cases for the US today, at this pace tomorrow it surpasses both Italy and China...Grim day..
Mar 25, 2020, 11:03 pm
#1656
Join Date: Nov 2018
Posts: 765
Which is why we should devote extraordinary resources to taking care of those people. But it is insane to shut down the global economy to prevent the spread of a virus that is mostly benign. Identify the people for whom it is not mostly benign, and do everything you can to prevent them getting it until a vaccine or other mitigation is available. The cost of doing so will be high, but nowhere near as high as the cost of shutting down the global economy (and when I say cost, I want it to be clear that there is a significant human cost to doing so).
Mar 25, 2020, 11:20 pm
#1657
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: SFO, TPE, HNL
Programs: UA GS 4MM, RCC life member (paid), Marriott Lifetime Titanium, Hyatt Globalist, CLEAR
Posts: 1,822
Why are so many young people being hospitalized with severe cases of coronavirus?
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/by...=yahoo&ref=yfpPublished: March 25, 2020 at 1:42 p.m. ET
By Elisabeth Buchwald
A teen in Los Angeles could be the first person under 18 to die of the disease in the U.S., and nearly 54% of hospitalized coronavirus patients in New York were between 18 and 49
Mar 25, 2020, 11:29 pm
#1658
Join Date: Nov 2018
Posts: 765
Why are so many young people being hospitalized with severe cases of coronavirus?
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/by...=yahoo&ref=yfpPublished: March 25, 2020 at 1:42 p.m. ET
By Elisabeth Buchwald
A teen in Los Angeles could be the first person under 18 to die of the disease in the U.S., and nearly 54% of hospitalized coronavirus patients in New York were between 18 and 49
- quoted portion from https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/18/h...ng-people.html
Mar 25, 2020, 11:32 pm
#1659
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Pacific Northwest
Programs: UA Gold 1MM, AS 75k, AA Plat, Bonvoyed Gold, Honors Dia, Hyatt Explorer, IHG Plat, ...
Posts: 16,840
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/20/u...ton-state.html
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/corona...ry?id=69770794
Mar 25, 2020, 11:51 pm
#1660
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Pacific Northwest
Programs: UA Gold 1MM, AS 75k, AA Plat, Bonvoyed Gold, Honors Dia, Hyatt Explorer, IHG Plat, ...
Posts: 16,840
China: 3287
Spain: 3647
Italy: 7503
Last edited by notquiteaff; Mar 26, 2020 at 12:08 am Reason: Added graph
Mar 26, 2020, 12:09 am
#1661
Join Date: Jan 2019
Location: SAN, BOS
Programs: AS MVPG100K, BAEC Gold, Hilton Diamond, Bonvoy Plat,
Posts: 2,281
Some of you are acting like the amount of people with pre-existing conditions are a small fraction of the population. In America, where the average citizen is more unhealthy than the world, a quarter of people under 18 have a pre-existing condition that would put them at-risk of CV-19, and the percentages only go up with the age bracket. This was as of 2008, and it's fair to assume the amount of children with obesity and asthma has only increased since then.
The percentages jump to 35% for ages 18-24, 46% for ages 25 - 34 - 58% for ages 35 - 44. This was a study based around the ACA and using the more liberal "pre-existing condition" clause by insurance companies because CV-19 is indeed a bigger risk for those with asthma, obesity, high blood pressure, etc.
So what do we do? Continue in a world where a quarter of kids can't go to school? Where a majority of the working class is at risk? Where older generations literally shouldn't go outside? For what? So you can do your mileage run for a status that will almost certainly be extended anyways?
The govt. just passed a 2 trillion dollar package aimed at making sure the entire system doesn't collapse. There will be suffering. There will be pain. But the govt isn't going to let the bottom fall out this isn't the 1920's. But many of you are talking about personal responsibility so let's talk PR.
We (USA) had the opportunity to ACT to PREVENT this exact scenario that was occurring right now, But the politicians we elected were given incentives to NOT to ACT because in the US being responsible and thinking about events down the line doesn't get you elected, Many of you are clamoring for the US Govt to be like S. Korea or Taiwan but when both governments had the opportunity to prepare for this pandemic, one government decided to act swiftly and produced hundreds of thousands of tests while the other for weeks decried CV-19 as a liberal hoax. One government prioritized the ramping up of medical equipment that they have an excess where they donate 100k masks per WEEK to the US while the other's inaction is forcing doctor's and nurses to reuse masks.
We made our bed. It's time to lay in it. Prevention is always cheaper than the cure, but as the old adage goes - Americans will always do the right thing, after they tried everything else.
The percentages jump to 35% for ages 18-24, 46% for ages 25 - 34 - 58% for ages 35 - 44. This was a study based around the ACA and using the more liberal "pre-existing condition" clause by insurance companies because CV-19 is indeed a bigger risk for those with asthma, obesity, high blood pressure, etc.
So what do we do? Continue in a world where a quarter of kids can't go to school? Where a majority of the working class is at risk? Where older generations literally shouldn't go outside? For what? So you can do your mileage run for a status that will almost certainly be extended anyways?
The govt. just passed a 2 trillion dollar package aimed at making sure the entire system doesn't collapse. There will be suffering. There will be pain. But the govt isn't going to let the bottom fall out this isn't the 1920's. But many of you are talking about personal responsibility so let's talk PR.
We (USA) had the opportunity to ACT to PREVENT this exact scenario that was occurring right now, But the politicians we elected were given incentives to NOT to ACT because in the US being responsible and thinking about events down the line doesn't get you elected, Many of you are clamoring for the US Govt to be like S. Korea or Taiwan but when both governments had the opportunity to prepare for this pandemic, one government decided to act swiftly and produced hundreds of thousands of tests while the other for weeks decried CV-19 as a liberal hoax. One government prioritized the ramping up of medical equipment that they have an excess where they donate 100k masks per WEEK to the US while the other's inaction is forcing doctor's and nurses to reuse masks.
We made our bed. It's time to lay in it. Prevention is always cheaper than the cure, but as the old adage goes - Americans will always do the right thing, after they tried everything else.
Mar 26, 2020, 12:21 am
#1662
Join Date: Jan 2011
Posts: 100
Speculation: What Will Traveling After COVID-19 Lockdown Abates Be Like?
It seems most of the country (those in the USA anyway) are hearing talk from our president of life somewhat returning back to normal after Easter... (wishful thinking?)
Has anyone stopped to consider what social etiquette will be on flights going going forward? I flew days up until the shutdown, and even people clearing their throat on my last few flights were looked at like despicable people. People completely doused their seats with Lysol wipes. People just sat in a gaze. It was very strange. With what little my small brain can wrap around this, it seems like the virus is here to stay and dealing with the risk we'll likely all contract it at one point or another seems to be the narrative they're pushing. E.g. Accept the risks, and get on with life.
I am old enough to remember the before and after of what business travel was like before/after 9/11 and wonder what the landscape will look like once people resume travel in earnest after this. Admittedly, I used to look at people in American airports with surgical masks as a bit strange. I suspect those will now be acceptable or even fashionable. I expect to see hand sanitizer ... everywhere. I expect to see a push towards social etiquette on planes or distancing being promoted, when/where possible. I'm sure all lounges will change and no longer do self serve snacks. Or the requirement of masks if you're feeling sick or suffering from allergies? I'm sure we'll see passengers removed from planes at FA discretion if they're coughing "too much?"
Or ...will it be so widely common that it will be no different than someone traveling with a cold. Just part of everyday life. Suck it up and move on?
You have to think AA is already considering what the playbook will be going forward. If nothing else, from an HR perspective.
Imagine if ONE flight attendant is sick. Doesn't tell anyone. And gets on a flight to work with a full cabin. Americans love to sue.
Surely all must be considering what life looks like AFTER this ordeal. Seemingly someone on staff testing positive for the virus after a certain point no longer means shutting down entire said area? Or do we run the risk of every time we travel here on out, potentially getting quarantined if we were exposed to a later known infection?
All random questions I know, but it's prudent to think about how this all unfolds once we resume some kind of normalcy.
Has anyone stopped to consider what social etiquette will be on flights going going forward? I flew days up until the shutdown, and even people clearing their throat on my last few flights were looked at like despicable people. People completely doused their seats with Lysol wipes. People just sat in a gaze. It was very strange. With what little my small brain can wrap around this, it seems like the virus is here to stay and dealing with the risk we'll likely all contract it at one point or another seems to be the narrative they're pushing. E.g. Accept the risks, and get on with life.
I am old enough to remember the before and after of what business travel was like before/after 9/11 and wonder what the landscape will look like once people resume travel in earnest after this. Admittedly, I used to look at people in American airports with surgical masks as a bit strange. I suspect those will now be acceptable or even fashionable. I expect to see hand sanitizer ... everywhere. I expect to see a push towards social etiquette on planes or distancing being promoted, when/where possible. I'm sure all lounges will change and no longer do self serve snacks. Or the requirement of masks if you're feeling sick or suffering from allergies? I'm sure we'll see passengers removed from planes at FA discretion if they're coughing "too much?"
Or ...will it be so widely common that it will be no different than someone traveling with a cold. Just part of everyday life. Suck it up and move on?
You have to think AA is already considering what the playbook will be going forward. If nothing else, from an HR perspective.
Imagine if ONE flight attendant is sick. Doesn't tell anyone. And gets on a flight to work with a full cabin. Americans love to sue.
Surely all must be considering what life looks like AFTER this ordeal. Seemingly someone on staff testing positive for the virus after a certain point no longer means shutting down entire said area? Or do we run the risk of every time we travel here on out, potentially getting quarantined if we were exposed to a later known infection?
All random questions I know, but it's prudent to think about how this all unfolds once we resume some kind of normalcy.
Mar 26, 2020, 12:27 am
#1663
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 4,374
Agree on masks - they will no longer be taboo in America, at least the big cities.
Some other habits should be here to stay, and thank goodness: coughing into one's elbow (not fist); washing hands with soap for a long enough time to actually remove germs. I suspect the "wave hands under the sensor for 1 second" game will have fewer players/
Some other habits should be here to stay, and thank goodness: coughing into one's elbow (not fist); washing hands with soap for a long enough time to actually remove germs. I suspect the "wave hands under the sensor for 1 second" game will have fewer players/
Mar 26, 2020, 12:35 am
#1664
Join Date: May 2017
Posts: 2,279
In addition to having seniors-only shopping hours, some grocery stores are reserving an extra hour (the last hour of opening time) to healthcare workers only, all London Drugs across some Canadian provinces.
https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/lond...bX7-KjF9KVaQBI
Neat. Worried it being at the end just means it's all sold out of things anyway, but will minimize exposure and stress.
https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/lond...bX7-KjF9KVaQBI
Neat. Worried it being at the end just means it's all sold out of things anyway, but will minimize exposure and stress.
Mar 26, 2020, 12:49 am
#1665
Join Date: Nov 2018
Posts: 765
I've recently been trying to add up-to-the-minute data on all-cause mortality to the metrics I'm keeping an eye on, to try to get some perspective on how many additional deaths are being caused by Covid-19.
The UK publishes figures on a weekly basis along with information about whether any statistically significant increase has been detected overall, or in subpopulations by region or age, against the prediction based on previous years. No increase was detected in the latest data. It was published nearly a week ago and it should be noted that there can be a time lag between death and registration of death.
https://www.gov.uk/government/statis...e-2019-to-2020
There is also EURO MOMO (European Mortality Monitoring) which is also published weekly as an aggregate across all of Europe and an aggregate for each country. This also shows no statistically significant increase for Europe or for any individual country, but that should be interpreted with caution. Any potential increase in the all-Europe figure is probably concentrated in Italy/Spain and would thus be diluted out of the aggregate for Europe by the rest of Europe. Any potential increase in Italy or Spain might be concentrated in a region and thus diluted by the rest of the country.
EURO MOMO
These will be interesting to monitor over the coming weeks. If anyone knows of other all-cause mortality monitoring data sources for other countries/regions please post links.
The UK publishes figures on a weekly basis along with information about whether any statistically significant increase has been detected overall, or in subpopulations by region or age, against the prediction based on previous years. No increase was detected in the latest data. It was published nearly a week ago and it should be noted that there can be a time lag between death and registration of death.
https://www.gov.uk/government/statis...e-2019-to-2020
There is also EURO MOMO (European Mortality Monitoring) which is also published weekly as an aggregate across all of Europe and an aggregate for each country. This also shows no statistically significant increase for Europe or for any individual country, but that should be interpreted with caution. Any potential increase in the all-Europe figure is probably concentrated in Italy/Spain and would thus be diluted out of the aggregate for Europe by the rest of Europe. Any potential increase in Italy or Spain might be concentrated in a region and thus diluted by the rest of the country.
EURO MOMO
These will be interesting to monitor over the coming weeks. If anyone knows of other all-cause mortality monitoring data sources for other countries/regions please post links.