Boraxo

I would not cancel Hawaii - it's one place you generally don't have to worry about crowds (unless you are on Wakiki Beach). And not a bad place if you get stuck there for a couple of weeks LOL

In fact on any given day it is probably much safer than Mexico, Washington DC, cruise ships, and a host of other popular vacation spots.

fast passenger

We're supposed to go to Kauai. I've never been and I was looking forward to it. However, the idea of being quarantined in a timeshare room (like Tenerife) doesn't make me excited to travel right now. Hawaii isn't going anywhere!

nock

It might seem that way because of the speed with which news is spreading, but if you add up all the expenditures making driving safer (road engineering/car safety features/drunk driver campaigns/etc) and compare it to coronavirus spending, it's no contest. Literally no public health official is saying the risks of coronavirus exceed the risks of driving. We (I'm a physician) are trying to keep the number of infected down because we know that a certain percentage (however small) will die from this.

DenverBrian

As a physician, surely you know that this is spreading in a way similar to regular flu - that is, via asymptomatic carriers - and so "keeping the number of infected down" is really a lost cause, yes?

nock

There is no doubt that the virus will continue to spread and we will see more cases. Our goal as providers is to slow the spread so that the number of patients remains within our ability to treat appropriately as well as allow us time to find the best treatment and/or vaccine. Keeping the total number of cases down would be ideal, but spreading out the number of infected over a longer period of time is also good. The worst thing would be to have everyone get the disease at the same time as that would rapidly overwhelm hospitals and the fatality rate would skyrocket.

COVID 19 is different than seasonal flu in several important ways. Seasonal flu has numerous varieties (types, subtypes, clades, etc) which sprout up every year and which public health organizations attempt to target by vaccine before it is widespread. Vaccine effectiveness varies depending on how well these groups guessed which variety of flu would predominate. Additionally, seasonal flu is much less fatal (probably reduced by vaccination) and we have four approved antiviral medications we can give if someone does get infected.

COVID 19 is a single virus strain, which as far as we can tell does not have that same ability to alter its antigenicity. This makes it more akin to measles or tetanus which means that an effective vaccine could stop the spread of the virus in its tracks. But we need time to develop and test vaccines. This is all about buying us some time.

TravelingNomads

We have a trip to Spain planned in approximately 6 weeks. We're going to be a group of 8 people coming from different countries/cities. Can someone explain the process if a quarantine is mandated? Are you stuck paying for your own hotels until the quarantine is over? There will be 8 of us and we'd be responsible for the additional bills so I'm trying to gauge what additional costs we might incur and whether I should start trying to find an insurance policy now just in case.

Are there even any insurance companies willing to sell policies like this? The airlines being flow are SAS and RyanAir. I believe we can still add insurance through them but I thought I read somewhere that the airline companies have an exception for viruses like this.

I guess any info that you might have regarding a policy that would cover things would be appreciated. I'm also assuming that we should encourage everyone to use the antibacterial hand stuff before eating. Are there any other guidelines that you can think of?

LapLap

As mentioned, this is a topic I am following. The only example I can follow to a degree is that if the H10 hotel in Tenerife which is currently on lockdown and only releasing guests at a dribble as and when the Authorities allow.
https://www.elplural.com/economia/qu...irus_234164102
The question of who is going to be paying for the extended stay has been asked a few times over the past few days and this is the latest I could find, which is in no way conclusive. Nobody yet knows, but the answer seems to be - not the guests themselves.
I can’t give you the other information you want, and I certainly don’t know where one gets comprehensive, guaranteed insurance to cover everything related to Covid-19.
I do know that a flight company (Jet2) is refusing to fly any of the affected Britons back until they receive a negative test
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavir...leave-11944630
But I don’t know how this would play out - 14 days in isolation (the Spanish Authorities have purposefully avoided using the word “quarantine”) might not be enough to satisfy the airline and, once complete, Spain may not facilitate a Covid-19 test (both Japan and the USA have been reluctant to give them unless they are under strict circumstances), so what do they do then? I know that in the USA a test costs over $3,000, but that is far more than getting a new flight with, perhaps, a different company and even a different route, so I can imagine insurers not paying up for it.
It’s a minefield, but I still see it as being a far less frightening one (sticking solely to economic consequences) than going to the USA.

trueblu

I'm mostly confining my posts to the main Coronavirus thread in the China forum (which is now no longer just to do with China-related issues). But given some of the posts I've read on this thread (only became aware of it today), I thought I would post a link to this excellent article in The Guardian, which is to the point and, from my perspective at least, fairly accurate.

The posts comparing with RTAs really miss the point, as has already been mentioned by some other posters...the aggregate lifetime risk of dieing from a RTA is about 1% globally, with massively skewed risks if one is a young male, or in India etc etc. If this becomes a global pandemic, and I think that's likely, AND if it doesn't dissipate in the Spring, which is a complete unknown, most models predict 10-80% of the global population will get COVID-19 _before_ we get a vaccine in place. If the aggregate risk of death from COVID-19 is ~1%, that would mean, in the next 12 months, similar risk of death as a lifetime of driving or being driven in a car. Of course, younger people will have much lower risks, anyone over 50 higher risks. But it would suggest 5M-50M deaths in the next 12 months if it really is 1% case-fatality rate and that extent of spread.

The question is: how much do you believe these models? The case fatality rate, even if 10x lower (i.e. same as seasonal influenza) but with the same level of pandemic spread, would still cause 500k-5M deaths this year. Similarly, if the case fatality rate IS 1%, but we limit spread to 1% of the population, that would still be 700k deaths this year, and I think that is really the very best case scenario we can hope for (note that 2009 H1N1 probably infected 10-20% of the global population, and that was with a vaccine).

I think the very best we can do now is to flatten the curve of the spread: until we have a vaccine or possibly anti-virals that limit infectivity, we won't be able to stop COVID-19. What China (eventually, after mismanaging the original outbreak) has done is remarkable, but that capability just doesn't exist on a planetary scale, and so we can't hope to completely contain COVID-19. Arguing that only 3k people in China have died has missed the point again: if China didn't engage in the massive lockdown, we would have had millions of cases and tens of thousands of death, and it would just keep going up. It still may, as China starts to import instead of export cases.

I don't want to fear monger. But I think this is a once in a several lifetime event. It's not business as usual. People planning travel for the next month will probably be fine, and after that, travel may be no more or less risky than becoming ill at home. But the question is: if you want to go on vacation, and you haven't had COVID-19 already, do you really want to get it on vacation? If planning on attending a conference, we know those types of events increase risk of getting infected, really a good idea?

Be healthy all!

tb

Travlur

My grandmother was alive during the spanish flu in 1918. That killed 100 million + worldwide. I have seen nothing that suggests anything even close to this yet and seems hard to justify this statement.

trueblu

You are right, the current worst projections suggest 50M deaths, which is proportionately much less than 1918 influenza. But we also live in a far more connected world than 1918...the knock-on effects of 5M deaths, let alone 50M would be proportionately greater. Also, in 1918, older people were relatively spared since they had exposure to a similar flu strain decades back, in this case, everyone is equally susceptible (to infection, not disease).

I'm sharing my understanding of the models...if we assume a) there is no host resistance, so everyone is susceptible, b) it is highly contagious [I think most people would agree with both of these statements], then unless we, as a planet, radically change our behaviours, a VERY LARGE proportion of the planet will get infected. The consequences of that will depend on overall morbidity and mortality rates. But even low-end estimates suggest bad news...but these latter statements are more subject to error.

tb

earthyfool

The wife and I have a trip coming up in 60 hours from India to the LAX via AUH - and the wife is suffering from a bad cold/cough.

What do people here think are the chances of getting pulled aside for a check at any of the 3 airports we touch, conceivably leading to 'isolation/quanrantine'?? Though neither India nor AUH nor the US have any travel advisories touching each other.

Under normal circumstances we wouldn't even think about flying with a cold - except for the dis-comfort of a cold on a long flight - but right now with all the sound and fury surrounding COVID-19, we are more concerned about the risk of outlined above than actually catching the coronavirus. Unfortunately we have very limited options on changing/deferring the flights - because the award tickets are almost at the end of their 1-year validity period!

Some advise, especially from those who have flown in the couple of weeks, would be appreciated. Are airports putting people through systematic or random screening? Should we risk it?
Thanks

84fiero

That's my view as well. I'm not cancelling anything at this point, including a trip to Ecuador next month.

Depends on the policy which can vary between providers and also depending on the insured's residence location. The most recent policy I bought (US resident) includes mandatory quarantine as a covered reason for trip delay and other provisions. Shop around and read the policy carefully before buying. Usually the policies sold on airline sites are actually plans administered by a 3rd party insurance company that may also be sold elsewhere - so definitely compare prices and coverage - googling usually brings up plenty of sources.

altabello

Who pays for testing and quarantine if you're involuntarily contained at port of entry upon returning to the US?

jiejie

Abu Dhabi is on high alert, and two hotels on lockdown. I think chances are very high that with obvious symptoms of illness, she will be identified at AUH and be pulled out for isolation and testing. Probably you as well, being a close contact. To me, this is a no-brainer. Don't fly at this time. Health of her, you, and others outranks concerns over money. Call the airline, explain the situation and request a special dispensation to move the flight out at least a couple of weeks or redeposit the award point equivalent. You didn't mention whether you tried this or not--so I'm guessing that you haven't yet tried this approach. I doubt if airlines really want sick passengers of any type on their craft due to the potential disruption and follow-on work, should the passenger be suspected of COVID-19--might want to point this out if the airline seems reluctant to adjust the rules for Special Circumstances. But if the airline refuses, then eat the award ticket and figure out a way to eventually get back on your own dime. The way things are going, very soon airline tickets aren't going to be in heavy demand or high price.

Also, remember that her flying with just a cold could infect other people....and colds are never pleasant even though most of us get through it. But those other people would then be subject to suspicion of having coronavirus and possibly put through quarantine/testing, etc etc. Is is worth it? All for UNNECESSARY travel organized strictly around preserving an award?

jiejie

A good question, and one which has not been clarified. I suppose that if you refuse to be tested on a voluntary basis, then the public health authorities could compel it to be done, and they would pick up the tab. Same for quarantine. There's simply no way that the vast number of uninsured and underinsured people could pay for testing and quarantine, even that deemed necessary. And particularly not for treatment. This should be one of the items that the requested federal funding and additional future funding requests, should be covering. But I don't make the rules.