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Coronavirus / COVID-19 : general fact-based reporting

 
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Old Oct 9, 2021, 2:23 pm
  #9646  
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Originally Posted by shorthauldad
So we don't know...
...but one paragraph later, we do?

Sorry, but this is public health policy getting the better of actual science. Again!

There are countries ignoring the infected-and-recovered, and there countries where a confirmed Covid infection-and-recovery puts you on the exact same footing as being fully vaccinated. Including the one I'm currently in.

Are those places really seen as suffering from some kind of madness affecting government and policymakers? Governments who are deaf to 99% of immunologists, as it were?
I really don't think I need to explain the difference between "not knowing" and "a consensus of informed scientists". But just in case, given we don't know certain details, and yet have to come up with a way forward, then those who have background in this area come up with their best recommendation based on their understanding of the science. I can think of many politicians and indeed anti-vaxxers who think natural infection is great policy. I can't point to a single respected scientist working actively in this field who goes along with it. Indeed every single one of my colleagues - without needing a mandate - has been vaccinated, regardless of previous infection status. That speaks for itself - it is science led. Where past infection gives a Covid pass then it may come with a time day limit (e.g. Switzerland).

But in a sense it hardly matters - most countries I can think of in Europe have high levels of vaccination and have relatively few restrictions for those vaccinated. Public health policy is going to focus on the 90% plus of adults vaccinated rather than the ramshackle minority of those who have niche agendas.
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Old Oct 9, 2021, 2:39 pm
  #9647  
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Originally Posted by bambinomartino
You're grasping at straws.

If natural immunity to other coronaviruses like SARS CoV1 fizzled out, then you may have a point in there somewhere. But the exact opposite is actually the case.

By the way, the article you linked yesterday is such a bad faith effort. The author neglected to mention any of the many studies supporting the natural immunity proposition (and no, it's not just "some" that merely "seem" to), especially the biggest and probably best one out of Israel. It would be laughable if she wasn't so offensively dishonest while purporting to be balanced.

It may well be that natural immunity is hard to reliably measure or quantify and that there is variation among those who have had it (true for vaccine recipients to some extent by the way). The pertinent question is are those even on the lower range of (only) natural immunity protection better or worse off than the average (only) vaxxed? Data suggests the former. Why are they being made second-class citizens across the supposedly free Western world is another question to which I am yet to see a good answer.

The only fair point she made is that natural infection plus vaccination is better. Well duh. So bike helmet AND bubble wrap for my kid then. Genius!
Why because the information didn't conform to your opinion?

Reality is so inconvenient to some people.
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Old Oct 9, 2021, 3:46 pm
  #9648  
 
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Why do things have to be so polarizing? I'm pro vaccine, vaccinated myself. At the same time, why not seriously consider whether cheap, available medications such as Ivermectin can help, or whether natural immunity confers good protection? You don't have to be an anti-vaxxer to take a measured, nuanced view of what might help bring us out of this situation.
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Old Oct 9, 2021, 4:46 pm
  #9649  
 
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Me!

Originally Posted by shorthauldad
Flu survivors still immune after 90 years
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/s...after-90-years

and how many people do you know who've had chicken pox more than once?
Had chicken pox at 6 and again at 12.
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Old Oct 9, 2021, 6:50 pm
  #9650  
 
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Originally Posted by JNelson113
Why do things have to be so polarizing? I'm pro vaccine, vaccinated myself. At the same time, why not seriously consider whether cheap, available medications such as Ivermectin can help, or whether natural immunity confers good protection? You don't have to be an anti-vaxxer to take a measured, nuanced view of what might help bring us out of this situation.

One doesn't. If you read what CWS posts - one of the people posting here who has actual work experience and professional knowledge regarding COVID - he basically says (and I'm oversimplifying, probably) that one should get the vaccine, take additional precautions in high risk situations (like indoor gatherings with poor ventilation)....and otherwise trust the vaccines, get on with your life. CWS, if I've misrepresented your views, please correct me.

The rest of what you're hearing is a vocal minority who insists that if you don't do exactly what they do, you're an "anti-vaxxer" or "anti-science"....even if you've been vaccinated, lol. It's a false binary - "if you don't agree with me, then you're anti....whatever." The people who think everyone should bleach their groceries and wear masks in an outdoor swimming pool just because they do are....ugh. To those people, I say - I'm not anti-vax, not anti-science, I'm "anti-YOU".
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Old Oct 9, 2021, 11:48 pm
  #9651  
 
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Originally Posted by nk15
These data is being collected right now, you are in the hope (your natural immunity is enough against other variants) group, vs. the better safe than sorry group (hope plus vaccination group).
The data is in and the reporting is more than hopeful. Studies on cellular response and clinical outcomes have been confirming the lasting richness of natural immunity.
Natural Immunity To COVID-19 May Last More Than A Year After Infection, New Studies Show
- A paper published in Nature on Monday by researchers from the Washington University School of Medicine in St. Louis found that cells in the bone marrow of people who had COVID-19 about one year earlier maintained a memory of the virus, allowing them to generate antibodies in case of reinfection. Another new paper, still under peer-review for publishing in Nature, found that these memory cells continue to mature and strengthen for as many as 12 months post-infection. The evolution of those memory cells means they can tackle more and more variants of the virus over time.

Previous research has shown that recovery from COVID-19 grants a fairly strong level of natural immunity, particularly in younger people, but it remained unclear exactly how strong that immunity is and how long it lasts. Other SARS viruses tend to see natural immunity wane within a few months post-infection, according to the Washington University researchers.

Despite the immunity lasting longer, it can still be weakened against variants of the virus. “The reason we get infected with common coronaviruses repetitively throughout life might have much more to do with variation of these viruses rather than immunity,” Dr. Scott Hensley of the University of Pennsylvania told The New York Times. –

[moderator edit]

Last edited by l etoile; Oct 11, 2021 at 4:39 am
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Old Oct 9, 2021, 11:53 pm
  #9652  
 
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Originally Posted by FlitBen
The data is in and the reporting is more than hopeful. Studies on cellular response and clinical outcomes have been confirming the lasting richness of natural immunity.


.
is it "if not better" or "at most equivalent"?

Last edited by l etoile; Oct 11, 2021 at 4:38 am
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Old Oct 9, 2021, 11:57 pm
  #9653  
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Originally Posted by JNelson113
Why do things have to be so polarizing? I'm pro vaccine, vaccinated myself. At the same time, why not seriously consider whether cheap, available medications such as Ivermectin can help, or whether natural immunity confers good protection? You don't have to be an anti-vaxxer to take a measured, nuanced view of what might help bring us out of this situation.
Ivermectin is part of a couple of trials, so it is taken seriously to see if it can help. However there are currently no evidence whatsoever it helps, the trials are not done yet. So claiming it does work is false. For natural immunity there are research by scientist to know its strenght, lenght, cells and cytokines involved, etc .... So it is taken seriously. But it is in research. No professionals in the field will look at you and say "Natural immunity is better, do not get vaccine". We have suspicions but no proof ranked Strong on the GRADE scale of evidence. Until then, the advice is to do what you can rely on to have minimal risk: get vaccinated.

Every people that brings ivermectin or natural immunity usually have an agenda behind, so far. Both are classic anti vaxxer props, they present them as certainty instead of possibility with no clear evidence (yet) and use them as arguments for not getting the vaccines and other NPIs. Sometimes their agenda is another.
Case in point the post from FlitBen above me, who is linking to a neo-nazi and white supremacist website under the disguise of providing facts, since this piece is heavily biased by the anti-vaxx view of the White Supremacist owning the biased website.

Sometimes the agenda is that natural immunity is not recognized. It usually involves a US poster who thinks US is the world. In most if not all of Europe, a green pass (or COVID passport, or whatever name used) is usually proof of vaccination or proof of recovery. It is taken into account, better than a test actually since in Germany for example some places are moving to a system where you must be vaccinated or must had COVID; negative tests are not valud anymore.
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Old Oct 10, 2021, 12:52 am
  #9654  
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Good point about the natural immunity recognized in the Green pass in Europe, although many countries say "had positive test within the last 6 months", so there is a 6 month limit. I think it reflects the ongoing research uncertainty in the field, and some of these timelines are under revision (same for vaccines).

Both the CDC and the WHO clearly advocate vaccination for those infected, and rationales explained:

Frequently Asked Questions about COVID-19 Vaccination | CDC

Episode #50 - Do I still need the vaccine if I have COVID-19? (who.int)

Covid vaccine: The Who's Roger Daltrey sets an example for his generation and the rest – Scotsman comment | The Scotsman

Most European countries also support it, I believe.

Here is a good summary article on the issue in the Atlantic.

Should You Get a Vaccine If You Had COVID-19? - The Atlantic

Last edited by nk15; Oct 10, 2021 at 9:52 am
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Old Oct 10, 2021, 1:52 am
  #9655  
 
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Originally Posted by freed0m
is it "if not better" or "at most equivalent"?
To be clear, more protective in Israel and likely worldwide.
Past Infection May Better Protect Against Delta Than Vaccine, but …
- Those who received both doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine in January or February of this year had a 13.06-fold increased risk (95% CI 8.08-21.11) of SARS-CoV-2 infection with the Delta variant compared to those who had COVID-19 during the same time period, reported Sivan Gazit, MD, MA, of Maccabi Healthcare Services in Tel Aviv, and colleagues. Vaccine-induced immunity was also associated with a 27-fold increased risk for symptomatic infection (95% CI 12.7-57.5) compared with symptomatic reinfection (P<0.001), the researchers wrote in a paper published on the preprint server medRxiv, which has not undergone peer-review.

Among people with prior infection, a single dose of the vaccine conferred more protection against reinfection compared with no vaccination at all (OR 0.53, 95% CI 0.3-0.92). But experts cautioned that these results shouldn't encourage people to go out and get infected. Robert Schooley, MD, of the University of California San Diego, told MedPage Today that waiting around to get infected with the hopes of gaining natural immunity puts people at risk of infection without a baseline level of protection. –

- Natural immunity appeared more protective against hospitalization, with eight hospitalizations in the vaccine immunity cohort, and one in the natural immunity cohort. In a separate analysis that compared vaccine and natural immunity regardless of the time of infection, fully vaccinated patients had a higher risk of infection (OR 5.96, 95% CI 4.85-7.33) and symptomatic disease (OR 7.13, 95% CI 5.51-9.21). There were no COVID-related deaths reported in any of the cohorts. –

This is a long-emerging trend which the brain trusts at various PHA and university research centers as well as vaccine firms accept as worthy of consideration.
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Old Oct 10, 2021, 1:59 am
  #9656  
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Originally Posted by Diplomatico
One doesn't. If you read what CWS posts - one of the people posting here who has actual work experience and professional knowledge regarding COVID - he basically says (and I'm oversimplifying, probably) that one should get the vaccine, take additional precautions in high risk situations (like indoor gatherings with poor ventilation)....and otherwise trust the vaccines, get on with your life. CWS, if I've misrepresented your views, please correct me.
You have put it very well, probably better than I could have done, it sometimes needs an external view to cut to the point. And yes I do want people who have had both vaccines to go out and enjoy the planet. I've shocked some of my colleagues by making a number of trips to Portugal and a short weekend break to Montréal in recent months - but I too want my life back, hence my activties with the vaccine rollout in the UK.

Originally Posted by JNelson113
Why do things have to be so polarizing?
But this too is a good point, and it would be wise to keep that in mind. It can be very toxic, which isn't something I enjoy. So I don't support mandates (with a few exceptions - I think it odd that I'm not required to be vaccinated against COVID but I am required to vaccinated against Hepatitis). What I greatly prefer is putting the evidence to the public - namely that vaccines are safe, effective and the best barrier we know of against COVID - in the hope that any fair minded individual would do their bit for themselves, their family, their community and their healthcare professionals, and get the vaccine. We need to keep an open mind about other areas, and dexamethasone is an example of a cheap and fairly effective steroid treatment which came through research and has saved a huge number of lives. I think there will be a few others like that, plus the more expensive monoclonal options being worked on at top speed at the moment. But nothing yet as good as vaccines, the numbers in the USA speak for themselves, where there is a clear and avoidable division between those vaccinated and those not vaccinated.

The underlying and somewhat unspoken aspect to this particular debate is that travel restrictions on those unvaccinated are closing in. So for the UK, for example, if you are vaccinated then you can enter the UK without tests now, no self isolation, you do have to take a test on or before day 2 but that's basically it - very few restrictions are in place now. I think JNelson113 has first hand experience of this. If unvaccinated you have to do a minimum of 2 and maybe 4 sets of test, and self isolate for between 5 and 10 days. If you are previously infected and therefore elected not to get the vaccine then is that fair or right? I would say - on balance - yes, since while there are some impediments it isn't a block on travel, and after 5 days you're able to get on with most activities. Moreover we know that those who didn't get PCRs often get their previous exposure to COVID hopelessly wrong, plus we know of some unvaccinated people getting both Alpha and Delta. It's not unreasonable to encourage people to get vaccinated, but it is unreasonable not to get the vaccine, particularly if travelling, given the current state of evidence. If the evidence changes, I reserve the right to change my mind.
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Old Oct 10, 2021, 2:51 am
  #9657  
 
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Originally Posted by JNelson113
Why do things have to be so polarizing? I'm pro vaccine, vaccinated myself.
The same.

What I see, including in this forum from people claiming from the standpoint/argument of 'science' that basically 'there are only two opinions in the the world - mine and wrong'.

Anything opposite/different opinion is automatically labeled as xxx/yyy/zzz meaning 'I don't need to read/listen to this'.

Well, let me tell you - I was born in the country which had such stance as an official ideology. This did not end well for that country...

What this pandemic has shown to world is how many people are around who are willing to put others in jail so they 'can feel safe'.
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Last edited by invisible; Oct 10, 2021 at 3:06 am
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Old Oct 10, 2021, 5:53 am
  #9658  
 
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Originally Posted by JNelson113
to take a measured, nuanced view
Nuance seems to have left the building long ago, and at an abstract level, I mind that quite a lot. Further down that path lie torches and pitchforks.

Back to Covid - policymaking is being done along the lines of letting the librarian decide to keep a school library permanently locked to make sure none of the books get damaged, stolen, or out of order on the shelves. Immunologists and those on the front line want to see more medical interventions? Great, but perhaps it's a case of "if all you have is a syringe, everything looks like an arm" ?

Remember all those doom-laden articles about Sweden because Anders Tegnell didn't follow the herd? ( https://www.newyorker.com/news/dispa...mic-experiment )

I miss the nuance that would let politicians and public health officials be honest about policy choices in the grey areas. Some of these areas appear really quite grey when people are allowed to speak freely (see https://www.bbc.com/news/health-58438669 "The UK's vaccine advisory body has refused to give the green light to vaccinating healthy children aged 12-15 years on health grounds alone") yet that stuff gets quickly "corrected" as it was obviously off-message and is deemed to muddy the waters when policymakers want a clear, consistent message. Sometimes data isn't clear or consistent, we need to grow up and deal with that.

I was in a meeting last week where four of us sat in a small room with no ventilation for a couple of hours, I happened to have done a negative PCR test but that was for travel not because of the meeting, no-one else was tested. No masks were worn, no hand sanitizer was used, hands were shaken at the start of the meeting(!) That last bit did surprise me.

At one point a fifth person joined us by video call even though they were sitting in an office approximately one minute's walk away. Fully vaxxed, but wears a mask in the workplace and tries quite hard to avoid groups. On the other hand, rides a motorbike to work (despite also owning a car) and previously used to work as a fast-jet fighter pilot.

Everyone's entitled to make their own choices, but I'm not sure I understand what appear to be extremely inconsistent attitudes to risk. This stuff is starting to divide more and more - what's the plan for removing the divides? Insulting the other side and dismissing lines of questioning as "tropes" or mentioning "Darwin" fixing the problem appear to be a poor way to address that.

Originally Posted by nk15
... although many countries say "had positive test within the last 6 months", so there is a 6 month limit.
I think the jury is still out on how just long the vaccinated will have after their most recent vaccine jab to be considered "fully vaccinated", at least in some jurisdictions (see https://www.reuters.com/world/middle...ss-2021-10-03/ )

As an aside, I have a friend who has now had four vaccine shots this year, and is going to have his fifth (booster) in the next month or so. He's one of those frequent travellers who moves between jurisdictions, and currently two of the jurisdictions he moves between aren't (or weren't) able to recognise the other's vaccination protocols. He ended up going the path of least resistance and simply did his vaccinations twice over.
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Old Oct 10, 2021, 11:34 am
  #9659  
 
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Originally Posted by fransknorge
Ivermectin is part of a couple of trials, so it is taken seriously to see if it can help. However there are currently no evidence whatsoever it helps, the trials are not done yet. So claiming it does work is false. For natural immunity there are research by scientist to know its <strength>, <length>, cells and cytokines involved, etc.... So it is taken seriously. But it is in research. No professionals in the field will look at you and say "Natural immunity is better, do not get vaccine". We have suspicions but no proof ranked Strong on the GRADE scale of evidence. Until then, the advice is to do what you can rely on to have minimal risk: get vaccinated. –
You frame it as the eligible seeking initial immunity via naïve exposure in place of safer vaccination. No one here relies on such fringe scenario much except you, it seems. Experts in the field would not consider the swap as involving comparable courses of benefit.

Here is one the papers cited to which you are seemingly immune, that you neglect its content for lesser context in what could have been your ‘general fact-based’ reply.
Vaccination boosts naturally enhanced neutralizing breadth to SARS-CoV-2 one year after infection
- Vaccination increases all components of the humoral response, and as expected, results in serum neutralizing activities against variants of concern that are comparable to or greater than neutralizing activity against the original Wuhan Hu-1 achieved by vaccination of naïve individuals2,5–8. The mechanism underlying these broad-based responses involves ongoing antibody somatic mutation, memory B cell clonal turnover, and development of monoclonal antibodies that are exceptionally resistant to SARS-CoV-2 RBD mutations, including those found in variants of concern4,9.

In addition, B cell clones expressing broad and potent antibodies are selectively retained in the repertoire over time and expand dramatically after vaccination. The data suggest that immunity in convalescent individuals will be very long lasting and that convalescent individuals who receive available mRNA vaccines will produce antibodies and memory B cells that should be protective against circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants. Should memory responses evolve in a similar manner in vaccinated individuals, additional appropriately timed boosting with available vaccines could cover most circulating variants of concern. –

Much research supports the consensus forming on the rich immunity which develops from prior infection, especially that among young adults recovered from severe Covid.


Originally Posted by fransknorge
- Every people that brings ivermectin or natural immunity usually have an agenda behind, so far. Both are classic anti vaxxer props, they present them as certainty instead of possibility with no clear evidence (yet) and use them as arguments for not getting the vaccines and other NPIs. Sometimes their agenda is another. –
Your “every people” who you see as bringing “Ivermectin or natural immunity agendas” to their hard work and clear evidence.
Why does COVID-19 strike some and not others? Fauci sees an answer in new study
- “One of the things that I don’t think has been emphasized very much at all during the attempt to address, scientifically, the COVID-19 outbreak, and vaccine development and testing, is that we’ve been focusing very exclusively on the antibody test,” Fauci told McClatchy in a recent interview. “There’s another equally important component of the immune system.” The study, funded by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases which Fauci heads, is one of the first to identify T cell “cross reactivity” in individuals who have previously been exposed to one of the four endemic coronavirus strains, SARS or MERS. Cells known as “T cells,” which originate in the thymus, serve as a secondary line of defense in the immune system once antibodies have failed or faded away. –

- Dr. Shane Crotty, a virologist at the La Jolla Institute for Immunology and senior author on the Science study, said in an interview that the findings could mean that individuals with T cell memory from common colds are having less severe responses to COVID-19 exposure, with their immune systems responding to the new infection more quickly. “At least part of that immune memory is from people’s immune systems seeing common cold coronaviruses before,” Crotty said. “Most people have had those four common cold coronaviruses some time in their life, and about half of people have immune memory that cross-reacts between those common cold coronaviruses and this new coronavirus.”

The initial findings on T cell memory are already helping global leaders in public health better understand why some regions of the world have been hit harder by the COVID-19 pandemic than others. Bill Gates, co-founder of Microsoft and of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, told CNN over the weekend that “related coronavirus exposure” has begun to explain the regional discrepancies. –

Perhaps to you it is mainly about “classic anti vaxxer props”, or “arguments for not getting vaccines” (which are not NPIs). I think the topic and its varied concerns is much bigger than what you construe of it in angst.
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Old Oct 10, 2021, 12:30 pm
  #9660  
 
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Originally Posted by fransknorge
- Case in point the post from FlitBen above me, who is linking to a neo-Nazi and white supremacist website under the disguise of providing facts, since this piece is heavily biased by the anti-vaxx view of the White Supremacist owning the biased website. -
Your alleged “X Nazi Y supremacist” target is cited by other major press as a key partner in the industry's IFCN screening coalition.
Poynter Accepts The Daily Caller’s ‘Check Your Fact’ Site To International Fact-Checking Network
The Daily Caller’s new site “Check Your Fact” has joined the small circle of Poynter-approved fact check organizations in the United States. The International Fact-Checking Network (IFCN), operated by The Poynter Institute, is a fact-checking resource used to combat fake news, to verify facts used by influencers and to stop the promulgation of misinformation.

“We’re pleased to be approved by Poynter as a fact check site,” said Neil Patel, co-founder and Publisher of The Daily Caller. “Giant platforms like Google and Facebook are increasingly deciding what news and information people see in America. To the extent that these platforms rely on help from outside fact checkers, it’s important that those fact checkers are balanced, non-partisan and representative of a variety of viewpoints. Anything less is dangerous.” –
I would not let personal bias or partisan exercise prompt a resort to pejorative in the guise of factual discussion.


Originally Posted by fransknorge
- Sometimes the agenda is that natural immunity is not recognized. It usually involves a US poster who thinks US is the world. In most if not all of Europe, a green pass (or COVID passport, or whatever name used) is usually proof of vaccination or proof of recovery. It is taken into account, better than a test actually since in Germany for example some places are moving to a system where you must be vaccinated or must had COVID; negative tests are not <valid> anymore.
Any agenda-driven presumption on that “US is world“ thing you might tag me with would soon run into my take on pandemic planet. Including this cite portion hived off from the relevant private post:
Originally Posted by FlitBen
- Recovered immunity is robust, richer, and thus potentially superior for such applications, whether or not socialized demotion by mere vaccination status is deemed lawful for protecting the protected.

As an interim measure towards civilized normalcy, many modern nations (some with apartheid or fascist history) accede to broader inclusive scope in less despotic approaches.
Living, partying and travelling with COVID. Aussie expats shed light on their summer of freedom Posted Sun 26 Sep 2021
- European member states are allowing travellers to enter with a digital EU COVID Certificate, which serves as proof that a person has been vaccinated, recently received a negative COVID test, or is protected against the virus after being recently infected. –

- The 3Gs strategy – Geimpft, Genesen oder Getestet (vaccinated, recovered or tested) — is also the model Germany has relied on for bars and restaurants to reopen, and gigs and festivals to go ahead over summer. While masks were still mandatory in most situations, testing had become equally prolific, with pop-up sites on street corners, shopfronts and at venue doors, Ms Stevens said. Rapid antigen testing, which returns a result in under 30 minutes, has been enough for most venues to allow entry. –

- However, the rules around testing continue to shift as Chancellor Angela Merkel pushes to increase vaccination rates to provide "protection for everyone". Around 66 per cent of the German population has received one vaccine dose and 62 per cent are fully vaccinated. Ms Stevens learned first-hand last week that there are new privileges for fully-vaccinated clubbers to get a more authentic experience. "People who were unvaccinated could be there if they had a negative test, but they had to stay outside in a separate area. –

So, how much do immunity mechanisms differ in description before and after effective vaccines were developed at Warp Speed?
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Last edited by FlitBen; Oct 10, 2021 at 9:00 pm
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