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Coronavirus / COVID-19 : general fact-based reporting

Old Jan 27, 2020, 9:09 am
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Coronavirus / COVID-19 : general fact-based reporting

 
Old Feb 16, 2021, 7:06 pm
  #7441  
 
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63,000 cases today, a MASSIVE drop from last Tuesday's 96,000. Deaths down almost 50% from last Tues; 1,787 deaths today, down from 3,471.

Cases over Tuesdays:

1/12 230,000
1/19 176,000
1/26 153,000
2/2 116,000
2/9 96,000
2/16 63,000
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Old Feb 16, 2021, 8:45 pm
  #7442  
 
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[mod edit]

Originally Posted by VCURamFan
63,000 cases today, a MASSIVE drop from last Tuesday's 96,000. Deaths down almost 50% from last Tues; 1,787 deaths today, down from 3,471.

Cases over Tuesdays:

1/12 230,000
1/19 176,000
1/26 153,000
2/2 116,000
2/9 96,000
2/16 63,000
Appreciate that you continue to post the good news. Not enough of that lately. Let's hope it continues!
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Last edited by NewbieRunner; Feb 17, 2021 at 12:10 pm Reason: Redacted reference to a post which has been deleted by the mod team
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Old Feb 18, 2021, 4:26 am
  #7443  
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World's first coronavirus Human Challenge study receives ethics approval in the UK
(UK government press release)

The UK will be the first country in the world to run a Covid-19 human challenge study, following approval from the UKs clinical trials ethics body.

- First Covid-19 human challenge study will begin within a month, after receiving ethics approval in the same week the UK hits target of offering first dose to 15 million people
- Researchers call on healthy young people to volunteer for the study, which will play a key role in developing effective Covid-19 vaccines and treatments
- Up to 90 volunteers aged 18 - 30 years will be exposed to Covid-19 in a safe and controlled environment to increase understanding of how the virus affects people

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/w...oval-in-the-uk
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Old Feb 18, 2021, 5:08 am
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Originally Posted by NewbieRunner
World's first coronavirus Human Challenge study receives ethics approval in the UK
(UK government press release)

The UK will be the first country in the world to run a Covid-19 human challenge study, following approval from the UKs clinical trials ethics body.

- First Covid-19 human challenge study will begin within a month, after receiving ethics approval in the same week the UK hits target of offering first dose to 15 million people
- Researchers call on healthy young people to volunteer for the study, which will play a key role in developing effective Covid-19 vaccines and treatments
- Up to 90 volunteers aged 18 - 30 years will be exposed to Covid-19 in a safe and controlled environment to increase understanding of how the virus affects people

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/w...oval-in-the-uk
The newspapers are reporting that each participant will be paid 4,500. Across the 90 people that comes to 405,000. The UK Government is spending 33.6 million on this project, so I hope they are doing a lot more than just this!
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Old Feb 18, 2021, 1:21 pm
  #7445  
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Harvard study of B1.1.7 variant infections indicates that it doesn't produce a higher load than other variants.

But it does have longer duration, both in the proliferation and clearance phases:


To test whether acute infection with B.1.1.7 is associated with higher or more sustained nasopharyngeal viral concentrations, we assessed longitudinal PCR tests performed in a cohort of 65 individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2 undergoing daily surveillance testing, including seven in fected with B.1.1.7. For individuals infected with B.1.1.7, the mean duration of the proliferation phase was 5.3 days (90% credible interval [2.7, 7.8]), the mean duration of the clearance phase was 8.0 days [6.1, 9.9], and the mean overall duration of infection (proliferation plus clearance) was 13.3 days [10.1, 16.5]. These compare to a mean proliferation phase of 2.0 days [0.7, 3.3], a mean clearance phase of 6.2 days [5.1, 7.1], and a mean duration of infection of 8.2 days [6.5, 9.7] for non-B.1.1.7 virus. The peak viral concentration for B.1.1.7 was 19.0 Ct [15.8, 22.0] compared to 20.2 Ct [19.0, 21.4] for non-B.1.1.7. This converts to 8.5 log10 RNA copies/ml [7.6, 9.4] for B.1.1.7 and 8.2 log10 RNA copies/ml [7.8, 8.5] for non-B.1.1.7. These data offer evidence that SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.1.7 may cause longer infections with similar peak viral concentration compared to non-B.1.1.7 SARS-CoV-2. This extended duration may contribute to B.1.1.7 SARS CoV-2’s increased transmissibility.
https://dash.harvard.edu/handle/1/37366884

If the B1.1.7 proliferation phase is over double that of other variants, shouldn't there be greater viral load, that is it's replicating for longer in the body before the immune system is able to fight it off?
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Old Feb 18, 2021, 7:54 pm
  #7446  
 
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One of the biggest week to week drops on record, from 98,000 cases last Thursday, to 68,000 cases today. Cases are falling fast. In addition, positivity rate in the US has fallen to a 7 day moving avg of 5.2%, a steady fall from a winter peak of 13.6% last month.

Cases over Thursdays

1/7 279,000
1/14 234,000
1/21 195,000
1/28 166,000
2/3 114,000
2/10 98,000
2/17 68,000

I think this is largely due to seroprevalence, but the vaccine is also definitely playing a major part.
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Old Feb 18, 2021, 8:10 pm
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Originally Posted by VCURamFan
One of the biggest week to week drops on record, from 98,000 cases last Thursday, to 68,000 cases today. Cases are falling fast. In addition, positivity rate in the US has fallen to a 7 day moving avg of 5.2%, a steady fall from a winter peak of 13.6% last month.

Cases over Thursdays

1/7 279,000
1/14 234,000
1/21 195,000
1/28 166,000
2/3 114,000
2/10 98,000
2/17 68,000

I think this is largely due to seroprevalence, but the vaccine is also definitely playing a major part.
I assume vaccinations in nursing homes have covered a large portion of residents and staff. I wonder if there is a study on how much of the drops are due to the drop in the nursing homes. Of course I will be very happy if the drops are large both inside and outside nursing homes.
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Old Feb 18, 2021, 8:20 pm
  #7448  
 
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Very interesting WSJ article here from Johns Hopkins Dr. Makary; https://www.wsj.com/articles/well-ha...il-11613669731

We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April
Covid cases have dropped 77% in six weeks. Experts should level with the public about the good news.

Last edited by NewbieRunner; Feb 19, 2021 at 7:42 am Reason: Added summary to comply with FT rule 7
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Old Feb 18, 2021, 9:32 pm
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Originally Posted by VCURamFan
Very interesting WSJ article here from Johns Hopkins Dr. Makary; https://www.wsj.com/articles/well-ha...il-11613669731
[mod edit]

According to the WSJ article, some two-thirds of the exposed population has already been infected, with a sizeable fraction vaccinated thus far. Most will have had experienced at most mild symptoms, while mutually developing natural population immunity consistent with a flu-like infected fatality rate of 0.23% or so.

I would like to believe it, Gottlieb's estimate that Warp Speed will have seen to 150 million inoculations by March makes it easier.
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Last edited by NewbieRunner; Feb 19, 2021 at 6:19 am Reason: Redacted quoted post which has been deleted by mod team
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Old Feb 19, 2021, 5:51 am
  #7450  
 
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An article from El Pas about an infection cluster in a 16-story apartment building in Bilbao: 33 cases identified and 6 deaths (thus it's reasonable to say there were likely more cases not identified). The virus spread is attributed to shared elevator use.

https://english.elpais.com/society/2...ronavirus.html

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Old Feb 19, 2021, 6:45 am
  #7451  
 
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Israel again with the good news (from the BBC):
The Pfizer vaccine is 85% effective at preventing people from developing Covid-19 symptoms after the first dose, according a new study from Israel.

The findings, published in the journal Lancet, appear to bolster the UK government's decision to delay the second dose of the Pfizer vaccine - in order to allow more people to receive the jab.

Scientists also found that all infections, including those without symptoms, were reduced by 75% after the first dose.

More than 7,000 healthcare workers at the Sheba Medical Centre in Israel - the country's largest hospital - were involved in the study.

Deborah Dunn-Walters, chairwoman of the British Society for Immunology Covid-19 and Immunology Taskforce, said the findings "should provide reassurance around the UK's decision to offer the two doses of the vaccine 12 weeks apart".

She said the data from Israel offered "the first signs of how effective Covid-19 vaccines are outside of a clinical trial setting and how dosing schedule plays into this".

But she added: "It should be noted that this study was carried out on people of working age, so it will be informative to see a similar study in older people after one dose."

Dr Peter English, a consultant in communicable disease control, described the findings as "good news" but added that available data was "quite limited".
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...448-7/fulltext
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Last edited by DaveS; Feb 19, 2021 at 6:52 am Reason: Add link
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Old Feb 19, 2021, 12:03 pm
  #7452  
 
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More good news from Pfizer; they are applying for FDA permission for storage of their vax at normal refrigeration temps. Could be a game changer for distribution.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/19/covi...peratures.html
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Old Feb 19, 2021, 8:38 pm
  #7453  
 
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"But the consistent and rapid decline in daily cases since Jan. 8 can be explained only by natural immunity. Behavior didn’t suddenly improve over the holidays; Americans traveled more over Christmas than they had since March. Vaccines also don’t explain the steep decline in January. Vaccination rates were low and they take weeks to kick in.

My prediction that Covid-19 will be mostly gone by April is based on laboratory data, mathematical data, published literature and conversations with experts. But it’s also based on direct observation of how hard testing has been to get, especially for the poor. If you live in a wealthy community where worried people are vigilant about getting tested, you might think that most infections are captured by testing. But if you have seen the many barriers to testing for low-income Americans, you might think that very few infections have been captured at testing centers. Keep in mind that most infections are asymptomatic, which still triggers natural immunity."

https://www.wsj.com/articles/well-ha...il-11613669731
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Old Feb 20, 2021, 1:40 am
  #7454  
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This is an opinion article. The WSJ already published an opinion article about COVID, by Mike Pence, about how it will disappear very soon (spoiler: it did not). This one is as much fantasy as the one from Mike Pence. Tor reach 250 m vaccinated end of march, considering there are 16 millions people vaccinated today, means you need to make 11.7 millions dose per day every day starting today. Currently they do 1.5 millions dose per day.
The 15% vaccinated is not correct, currently 4.83% of the US population is vaccinated.
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Old Feb 20, 2021, 4:45 am
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The study by Angulo estimated that only about 1 in 4 COVID cases were confirmed (https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...rticle/2774584). If we assume that ratio is accurate today then, based on the 48M official cases, we could estimate that about 112M in the U.S. have been infected (about 34%).

According to the CDC, 42M people have received at least one dose (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations), which is about 13% of the U.S. population. Obviously, the percent "protected" is less because some of that 13% were only recently vaccinated and many have not received their second dose, and the WSJ opinion piece doesn't mention that. Then again, the new data cited above in this thread suggest that one dose provides good protection after a few weeks. The effective rate might be a bit higher if the people being vaccinated tend to be those most likely to transmit COVID; my understanding is that kids are less likely to get and transmit COVID (e.g., https://www.nationalgeographic.com/s...ad-coronavirus).

Of course, you can't just add these two numbers, because they include some of the same people. If you assume independence, and a U.S. population of 328M, then the about 43% of the population has some protection, and rising. It makes sense that COVID transmission is dropping fast. Elimination by April an back-to-normal seems overly optimistic, though.

Notes: a lot of assumptions in there, so the confidence intervals are pretty wide. Also, the U.S. is obviously not just one homogenous blob. Trusting the 43% estimate, you would presumably have regions with 70% infected where COVID is nearly stamped out, and regions with 10% infected where it can still be easily transmitted.
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