13901

I guess so; but I’m not an expert on tests.

what I find interesting is that it’s the first case of “carpet testing” in Italy and it could give an idea of how widely the virus has spread.

Dublin_rfk

Here is an interesting article from the BBC news site.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-51235105

fransknorge

Interesting report from the CDC with odds ratio from various venues As expected drinking and eating on site presents statistical risks.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/...36a5_w#T1_down

hurnik

So dumb question since I don't know how to interpret this. If the little dots for the two lines are farther apart, (same category) that means it's statistically significant, yes?

fransknorge

The circle represent the odd value, to read on the X axis. The lines terminated by two little vertical marks are the error range. The smaller the line the more confident the value are.

exp

Why are the odds greater for Bar/Coffee Shop versus Restaurant?

Restaurants have bigger spaces and maybe not as much chattering?

the810

Sweden had negative excess mortality during this summer. While testing results can be disputed, I don't think anyone suggests that Sweden is hiding their corpses. There definitely is some positive change happening over there.

fransknorge

They have a strong negative P score from January to March, during flu season. What happened early 2020, they suddenly had better healthcare ? So based on that then this summer they have a positive excess death.

exp

Or maybe they've still curtailed a lot of activities?

While most other countries were partying hard in the summer, the Swedes aren't having big gatherings for weddings, churches, bars, etc.?

jmastron

I'd guess it has to do with the space, waiting in lines, waiting to pick up, etc, even the number of different people that will pass by you if you sit in a coffee shop for an hour vs sitting at a restaurant table for an hour. Similar for bars, especially since you're more likely to find people who, um, care a bit less there.

I haven't read through the whole study yet; I assume the odds are as they are now (e.g. public transit that's likely less crowded, offices WITH rearranged distancing spaces and restrictions on meetings etc), not the odds in those scenarios if we went back to full-crowd "normal" for each.

yvrcnx

Is the fact that hospitalizations and death rates are 'significantly' down compared to Spring being adressed by any countries or are infection rates still the driving force for restrictions and lock downs?
Just looking at France's numbers, as well as almost all other countries) which are higher over the last few days compared to their highest numers in Spring yet hospitalizations are low, I wonder if this might be looked at or maybe still is too early for drawing conclusions at this point.

This is not to criticize what is or isn't being looked at, I am just wondering since I haven't heard much about this particular development so far in the news.

ryman554

Hospitalizations are lagging indicators. ANd increased testing grabs more asymptomatics which don't need hospitals in the first place.

For example: compare to the USA. While we had *many* more cases over the summer than the spring, the hospitalization is about the same and the deaths are lower, but the time lag between case peak, hospitalization peak, and death peak is unchanged. Conclusions?
1. More testing = more cases (this is not a bad thing)
2. Testing capacity allows you to test people that weren't tested previously, which allows you to (presumably) isolate those that are sick and prevent more of the spread.
3. We have advanced treating to improve care/death, so we're learning to prevent the worst outcomes.
4. Increased compliance on social distancing and masking likely contribute to lower proportion of mild to severe cases.

Hospital admissions are probably the best indicator we have about the severity of a certain outbreak.

Loren Pechtel

The horizontal lines are the error bars. What counts is if the bars don't touch the 1. Bars and restaurants.

exp

I think the new infections in Europe are also going to more young people than back in April.

PanAmWT

First UCSF Covid Medical Ground Rounds in a while yesterday. Well worth the 90 minutes.

Review of summer second wave

Super spreading is not because of some person with special anatomy or prolonged carriage of the carrier, more due to accident: timing of the transmission occurred at the peak load time of a typical carrier.

Hot spots in California are all in agriculture areas.

First time all counties in Bay Area have R0 < 1

All US vaccines in Phase 3 trial will need two doses. The Pfizer and Moderna, both mRNA, have extreme cold chain requirement. -70C, will be a problem.

Why mortality rate is decreasing
a) more young patients - No. Decrease is across all ages. Better treatment to all ages
b) more masking - Likely. Masks reduce virus doses in infection
c) increased immunity - Universal masking increases the ratio of asymptomatic patients who develop immunity. Some herd immunity in certain localities.

Lower mortality rate not because of virus mutation.

Why San Francisco has much lower mortality compared to anywhere else.

Research in Aero-Nabs: Nanobody treatment - binding the spike protein of the viruses through aerosol sprays into noses. Potentially the first treatment in early stage of infection. (The science part is easy to understand and very interesting)