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Old Jan 27, 2020, 9:09 am
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Coronavirus / COVID-19 : general fact-based reporting

 
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Old May 22, 2020, 1:24 pm
  #5281  
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Originally Posted by wco81
Just saw an alert which quotes Fauci as saying "now is the time" to reopen the economy.

Other expert ideas I've encountered in the past day or two. One guy said in podcast interview that 50% of the fatalities in the Northeast were in rest homes. So they should have mainly quarantined rest homes, aggressively test there. Though I think in March and April, there was still insufficient testing capacity in NY and other NE states.

Another article I just briefly scanned proposed just banning "super spreader events" such as sporting events, large gatherings such as at churches. But open up most of everything else.

Some things, like packed subway trains in NYC, may be a difficult problem to work around, because so many people depend on public transit in that city and in some other places. Also would probably make long flights still a problem.
I think that 50% in nursing homes is quite high, at least in the NYC area. I think it is closer to 25% to 30%. The current total is about 5800 in care facilities out of 23,195 total as of today which is just about 25%

This is a page, updated frequently, of deaths in care facilities in NYS. It has a breakdown by county and by individual facility.

https://www.health.ny.gov/statistics...g_home_acf.pdf
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Old May 22, 2020, 1:25 pm
  #5282  
 
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Originally Posted by wco81
Lancet published the results of a large study on CHQ. Long and short, doesn't help, can harm.

Should finally put it to bed.
Efficacy is still to be determined clinically, although HCQ is said to have a decent safety profile in current applications. We have to await the results of well-controlled randomized studies. I would hope that broad-based HCQ use turns out to be helpful in reducing admittances and/or care durations.
Coronavirus: Hydroxychloroquine trial begins in the UK
- One of the study's leaders, Prof Nicholas White at the University of Oxford said: "We really do not know if chloroquine or hydroxychloroquine are beneficial or harmful against Covid-19."

But, he said, a randomised controlled trial such as this one, where neither the participant nor the researchers know who has been given the drug or a placebo, was the best way to find out.

"A widely available, safe and effective vaccine may be a long way off," said Prof Martin Llewelyn from Brighton and Sussex Medical School, who is also leading the study. "If drugs as well-tolerated as chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine could reduce the chances of catching Covid-19, this would be incredibly valuable." -
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Old May 22, 2020, 1:32 pm
  #5283  
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Originally Posted by FlyBitcoin
Still not scientific at all. It's already happened, like it or not.
He's behind the curve again as he was in January.
Still, back then some experts in the US thought this would spread like SARS and MERS and burn out before getting to the USA.
If we never had SARS and MERS, I think the US response would have been better.
Love him, but jeez, get ahead of the curve for once.
As a scientist, I don't blame him for not wanting to be "ahead of the curve" on re-opening, because I don't see many doctors/scientists doing that - it's the economists who are. He likely has bigger concerns than the economy and is just focusing on minimizing the loss of lives.
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Old May 22, 2020, 1:35 pm
  #5284  
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Originally Posted by GadgetFreak
I think that 50% in nursing homes is quite high, at least in the NYC area. I think it is closer to 25% to 30%. The current total is about 5800 in care facilities out of 23,195 total as of today which is just about 25%

This is a page, updated frequently, of deaths in care facilities in NYS. It has a breakdown by county and by individual facility.

https://www.health.ny.gov/statistics...g_home_acf.pdf

Yeah it didn't sound right to me.

But I've seen some criticism that Cuomo made some fateful decision to force patients who tested positive back to nursing homes. Don't know if that's true or not but what's being implied is that he sent those people to certain deaths.
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Old May 22, 2020, 3:02 pm
  #5285  
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Originally Posted by wco81
Yeah it didn't sound right to me.

But I've seen some criticism that Cuomo made some fateful decision to force patients who tested positive back to nursing homes. Don't know if that's true or not but what's being implied is that he sent those people to certain deaths.
As I understand it they were thought to be recovered patients but the thought by some is that they might have still been contagious. At least that’s how I understand it. I could be wrong on that.
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Old May 22, 2020, 4:30 pm
  #5286  
 
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Originally Posted by GadgetFreak
As I understand it they were thought to be recovered patients but the thought by some is that they might have still been contagious. At least that’s how I understand it. I could be wrong on that.
I believe the directive was that assisted care facilities couldn't require a negative test prior to accepting (maybe it was reaccepting) a discharged patient. The obvious rationale was in the expectation of overwhelmed hospitals, to make sure that patients went to the appropriate level of care facility rather than warehousing in hospitals.

My suspicion is that most care facility outbreaks were by staff (and lesser extent visitors before those were restricted) bringing it in, especially once community spread was at NY levels. The less than perfect infection control in far too many places allowed it to spread inside once established.

Last edited by rustykettel; May 22, 2020 at 5:15 pm
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Old May 22, 2020, 5:11 pm
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Originally Posted by Smiley90
As a scientist, I don't blame him for not wanting to be "ahead of the curve" on re-opening, because I don't see many doctors/scientists doing that - it's the economists who are. He likely has bigger concerns than the economy and is just focusing on minimizing the loss of lives.
Being ahead of the curve means recognizing that there is co-mingling happening under constraints and rules, and commenting on those rules as they exist going forward and using the indicators to tell us what else we need to do to minimize morbidity and mortality going forward.

Simply ignoring that this is already happening and offering that this co-mingling can happen soon in some areas is being behind the curve.
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Old May 23, 2020, 9:34 am
  #5288  
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Originally Posted by wco81
Some skepticism about Moderna's press release:
Moderna Execs Dumped Stock After Hyping Vaccine Results

“Moderna’s stock price skyrocketed as much as 30% on Monday after the biotech company announced promising early results for its coronavirus vaccine. As ordinary investors piled in, two insiders were quietly heading for the exits,” CNN reports.

“Moderna’s chief financial officer and chief medical officer executed options and sold nearly $30 million of shares combined on Monday and Tuesday.”

Last edited by NewbieRunner; May 23, 2020 at 4:05 pm Reason: Font size
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Old May 23, 2020, 10:20 am
  #5289  
 
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Originally Posted by dergon darkhelm

Moderna Execs Dumped Stock After Hyping Vaccine Results





“Moderna’s stock price skyrocketed as much as 30% on Monday after the biotech company announced promising early results for its coronavirus vaccine. As ordinary investors piled in, two insiders were quietly heading for the exits,” CNN reports.

“Moderna’s chief financial officer and chief medical officer executed options and sold nearly $30 million of shares combined on Monday and Tuesday.”
Again.....
When we read the headline, our head's explode thinking that those SOBs just took us to the cleaners and made off like thieves. Here is the headline.

"Moderna unveiled encouraging coronavirus vaccine results. Then top execs dumped nearly $30 million of stock"

But, when you dig down into the story, this is what you find

"Moderna said the sales were executed under 10b5-1 trading plans that were established in advance. "These transactions are executing automatically pursuant to these trading plans," the company said.
Although the fortuitous timing of the transactions may raise eyebrows, Charles Whitehead, professor at Cornell Law School, said the stock sales did not appear to raise any legal red flags.
"On its face, there is nothing wrong with these trades," Whitehead said. "It's what a 10b5-1 plan is intended for, assuming the requirements are met."
These plans regulate when and how many shares company insiders, including directors and executives, are allowed to sell. The transactions are typically executed automatically, without the insiders taking any action. "


[conjecture removed by moderator]
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Last edited by l etoile; May 23, 2020 at 12:35 pm Reason: Fact-based thread - conjecture removed
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Old May 23, 2020, 1:58 pm
  #5290  
 
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Originally Posted by radonc1
Again.....
When we read the headline, our head's explode thinking that those SOBs just took us to the cleaners and made off like thieves. Here is the headline.

"Moderna unveiled encouraging coronavirus vaccine results. Then top execs dumped nearly $30 million of stock"

But, when you dig down into the story, this is what you find

"Moderna said the sales were executed under 10b5-1 trading plans that were established in advance. "These transactions are executing automatically pursuant to these trading plans," the company said.
Although the fortuitous timing of the transactions may raise eyebrows, Charles Whitehead, professor at Cornell Law School, said the stock sales did not appear to raise any legal red flags.
"On its face, there is nothing wrong with these trades," Whitehead said. "It's what a 10b5-1 plan is intended for, assuming the requirements are met."
These plans regulate when and how many shares company insiders, including directors and executives, are allowed to sell. The transactions are typically executed automatically, without the insiders taking any action. "


[conjecture removed by moderator]
Of course, since the execs know when these automatic trades are going to occur (even though they can't change them), there wouldn't be any incentive to time announcements of "breakthroughs" accordingly (which they do have control over), would there? I don't mean to make an accusation there, just something that's hopefully being looked into broadly (not just here). The problem with all of these announcements seems to be that people in the industry know what "promising early results" means (a slightly increased chance that this may be one possible vaccine in a year or so), while others of us want to read it as "it's solved! we can all go get a quick shot tomorrow morning and everything can go back to exaclty the way it was tomorrow afternoon!" It's great to know progress is being made on many fronts though, however agonizingly slow it will be.
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Old May 23, 2020, 2:08 pm
  #5291  
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Originally Posted by radonc1
Again.....
When we read the headline, our head's explode thinking that those SOBs just took us to the cleaners and made off like thieves. Here is the headline.

"Moderna unveiled encouraging coronavirus vaccine results. Then top execs dumped nearly $30 million of stock"

But, when you dig down into the story, this is what you find

"Moderna said the sales were executed under 10b5-1 trading plans that were established in advance. "These transactions are executing automatically pursuant to these trading plans," the company said.
Although the fortuitous timing of the transactions may raise eyebrows, Charles Whitehead, professor at Cornell Law School, said the stock sales did not appear to raise any legal red flags.
"On its face, there is nothing wrong with these trades," Whitehead said. "It's what a 10b5-1 plan is intended for, assuming the requirements are met."
These plans regulate when and how many shares company insiders, including directors and executives, are allowed to sell. The transactions are typically executed automatically, without the insiders taking any action. "


[conjecture removed by moderator]
The fact that there was a pre-determined plan to buy and sell stock with some parameters set, it doesn't mean that the system cannot be or is not manipulated. For example, they may have set an automatic trading plan to sell when the shares reach a certain high price, so all they have to do is manipulate/ release the good news to drive the share price up, and the system will do the rest, giving them a cover from the appearance of any impropriety.
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Old May 23, 2020, 2:10 pm
  #5292  
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Originally Posted by nk15
The fact that there was a pre-determined plan to buy and sell stock with some parameters set, it doesn't mean that the system cannot be or is not manipulated. For example, they may have set an automatic trading plan to sell when the shares reach a certain high price, so all they have to do is manipulate/ release the good news to drive the share price up, and the system will do the rest, given them a cover from the appearance of any impropriety.
I think it would be more concerning if the stocks were to be sold at a certain time.
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Old May 23, 2020, 3:27 pm
  #5293  
 
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Please remember that these are publicly traded companies and therefore are under the scrutiny of the SEC, who can make life miserable for insiders who release information that will influence stock prices for their benefit.

I suspect the whole purpose of a 10b5-1 plan is to make it more difficult for such things to occur, but I am not a stock broker, securities lawyer or a member of the SEC.

However, I am a reader and the headline published in CNN business did not match the information in the body of the text. That is all
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Old May 23, 2020, 3:39 pm
  #5294  
 
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Originally Posted by radonc1
Please remember that these are publicly traded companies and therefore are under the scrutiny of the SEC, who can make life miserable for insiders who release information that will influence stock prices for their benefit.

I suspect the whole purpose of a 10b5-1 plan is to make it more difficult for such things to occur, but I am not a stock broker, securities lawyer or a member of the SEC.

However, I am a reader and the headline published in CNN business did not match the information in the body of the text. That is all
I was curious what is your take, from my understanding the stock popped and they decide to go to the markets at record prices. Nothing illegal, you claim with best "intent" you have a possible treatments and then want to raise cash, lots of suckers, not your problem, LOL
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Old May 23, 2020, 3:59 pm
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Originally Posted by chipmaster
I was curious what is your take, from my understanding the stock popped and they decide to go to the markets at record prices. Nothing illegal, you claim with best "intent" you have a possible treatments and then want to raise cash, lots of suckers, not your problem, LOL
So I went and looked at what 10b5-1 plans are all about. You can find all the information here but I will use a small part of the FAQs answer to address your questions above.

"What are the benefits of a Rule 10b5‐1 plan? Rule 10b5‐1 plans provide the following benefits:  An affirmative defense to insider trading allegations for persons trading pursuant to the plan;  Greater certainty to insiders in planning securities transactions;  Potentially more opportunities for insiders to sell their shares, especially if the issuer’s trading policy permits trading under a plan during a trading or earnings blackout period;  Potentially less negative publicity associated with insider sales;....."

I will leave it to you to peruse the entire document but I suspect that this ground and the questions you raise have been plowed numerous times by those who make their living out of this. I don't so i will call it a day, and say that, as the CNN article said.........
"Although the fortuitous timing of the transactions may raise eyebrows, Charles Whitehead, professor at Cornell Law School, said the stock sales did not appear to raise any legal red flags."
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