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Coronavirus / COVID-19 : general fact-based reporting

Old Jan 27, 2020, 9:09 am
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Coronavirus / COVID-19 : general fact-based reporting

 
Old Mar 29, 2020, 10:38 am
  #4276  
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There are some indications that the BCG vaccine for tuberculosis may help fight off COVID-19.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020...ew-coronavirus

Vaccines generally raise immune responses specific to a targeted pathogen, such as antibodies that bind and neutralize one type of virus but not others. But BCG may also increase the ability of the immune system to fight off pathogens other than the TB bacterium, according to clinical and observational studies published over several decades by Danish researchers Peter Aaby and Christine Stabell Benn, who live and work in Guinea-Bissau. They concluded the vaccine prevents about 30% of infections with any known pathogen, including viruses, in the first year after it’s given. The studies published in this field have been criticized for their methodology, however; a 2014 review ordered by the World Health Organization concluded that BCG appeared to lower overall mortality in children, but rated confidence in the findings as “very low.” A 2016 review was a bit more positive about BCG’s potential benefits but said randomized trials were needed.

Since then, the clinical evidence has strengthened and several groups have made important steps investigating how BCG may generally boost the immune system. Mihai Netea, an infectious disease specialist at Radboud University Medical Center, discovered that the vaccine may defy textbook knowledge of how immunity works.
Trials are starting up, including 1000 health care workers in the Netherlands.
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Old Mar 29, 2020, 1:09 pm
  #4277  
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TED Talk on COVID-19, including interview with Bill Gates:

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Old Mar 29, 2020, 2:57 pm
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Originally Posted by username
Domestic Travel Advisory for NY/NJ/CT issued by the CDC: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...in-the-us.html
Not sure why they bothered, we've essentially been told not to go outside of our homes unless it's to get essential supplies already.
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Old Mar 29, 2020, 4:08 pm
  #4279  
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Originally Posted by Dublin_rfk
We apparently inhabit different worlds.
Actually YOU seem to be missing the point.
The 1% number I posted is of the number tested positive not the total population of the United States. Positive test are @ 25% of all tests. and those are of those people in and around possible infection areas.
Using today's numbers 103,200 Positive tests 1670 deaths for @ 1.6% 1.6% of 103,200 not 330,000,000.
And I still looking for what was racist about the original post!
As stated before. No one is immune to the wuhan virus and everyone's resistance is different.
Not everyone will be exposed to the virus.
Not everyone exposed will test positive.
Not everyone who tests positive will need treatment.
Not everyone who requires treatment will require hospitalization.
Not everyone who requires hospitalization will end up in the ICU.
Not everyone in the ICU will die.
As of today out of 330,000,000 people there are less than 2000 deaths.
2000 wuhan virus deaths to date in the US and that is too many.
US Influenza deaths.for 2019 23,000
The number of deaths as of today is completely irrelevant (although your number is certainly low--people are dying without ever having been tested.) Nothing we can do will change that, what matters is the number of deaths going forward--and we are less than three doublings from exceeding the flu. That's likely the second week in April.
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Old Mar 29, 2020, 4:17 pm
  #4280  
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Originally Posted by lupine
Rather awful death rates in critical care units for COVID-19 patients: https://www.theguardian.com/society/...-survival-rate

The mortality rate for patients put in intensive care after being infected with Covid-19 is running at close to 50%, a report has revealed.

Data from the Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre (ICNARC) showed that of 165 patients treated in critical care in England, Wales and Northern Ireland since the end of February, 79 died, while 86 survived and were discharged. The figures were taken from an audit of 775 people who have been or are in critical care with the disease, across 285 intensive care units. The remaining 610 patients continue to receive intensive care.


The article includes a comment from a doctor who questions if ventilators are futile.
A 50% save rate isn't futile.
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Old Mar 29, 2020, 4:33 pm
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Originally Posted by wco81
There are some indications that the BCG vaccine for tuberculosis may help fight off COVID-19.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020...ew-coronavirus



Trials are starting up, including 1000 health care workers in the Netherlands.
This seems to be a total shot in the dark with no evidence to suggest that it will help with COVID-19.
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Old Mar 29, 2020, 4:36 pm
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That's why they're doing trials.

May be a measure of desperation, to throw all existing drugs at it.
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Old Mar 29, 2020, 4:37 pm
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Originally Posted by Loren Pechtel
A 50% save rate isn't futile.
Totally agree.

However, Penn's CHIME model estimates the percentage of COVID-19 patients who need ICU treatment as 2%, and the percentage who need vents as 1%. https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/16/...hat-to-expect/
China's percentages appear to be higher. And, the results for patients needing vents weren't great, though the numbers cited are small: The most recent report showed that, among the 22 ICU patients who were intubated, 19 (86%) of them died.3 Although most frontline physicians believe the decision of intubation in some critically ill patients with COVID-19 had been adversely delayed, we do not know at this time if early intubation could save more lives. We do know, based on the work performed 30 yr ago by Shoemaker et al., that there is a close association between the oxygen debt accumulated over 48 h and the chance of survival in patients undergoing high-risk surgery and ICU admission afterward. 10 Shoemaker et al.’s work highlights the importance of timely stopping an enlarging oxygen debt using effective oxygenation and ventilation therapies. https://anesthesiology.pubs.asahq.or...icleid=2763453

As vent needs outstrip vent supplies, it seems likely that patients needing vents who don't get them in a very timely manner are likely to have poor outcomes. Needing a vent at all seems to be associated with poorer outcomes. Finding effective interventions before patients get to that point would be greatly helpful all the way around.
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Old Mar 29, 2020, 7:34 pm
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Does anyone know where I can find data on deaths in Wuhan/Hubei vs outside Wuhan/Hubei by day?
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Old Mar 29, 2020, 8:16 pm
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Originally Posted by Loren Pechtel
The number of deaths as of today is completely irrelevant (although your number is certainly low--people are dying without ever having been tested.) Nothing we can do will change that, what matters is the number of deaths going forward--and we are less than three doublings from exceeding the flu. That's likely the second week in April.
Lets start with 'people are dying without being tested' Yep every day and one or two may actually test positive for the [Moderator edit: Covid-19] virus. The numbers I posted were last year's which was one of the lower (recent year) fatality number and rate. I'll keep my positive attitude, preparedness, outlook and stick with my sources and projections and leave the drama to hollywood.

Last edited by Ocn Vw 1K; Mar 29, 2020 at 8:22 pm Reason: See note above. To use accepted identifier.
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Old Mar 29, 2020, 8:26 pm
  #4286  
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60 Minutes tonight:

Scott Pelley reports from hospitals in New York City, the new epicenter for COVID-19. Doctors describe how some patients with the disease can deteriorate suddenly and require lifesaving intensive care.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/new-yor...es-2020-03-29/
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Old Mar 29, 2020, 8:28 pm
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The World Health Organization and U.S. CDC agree the virus is “the coronavirus” or covid-19. Posters who insist on using other terms that may be racist, offensive or are used to present a political agenda may be disciplined.

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Old Mar 29, 2020, 10:52 pm
  #4288  
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Originally Posted by Kilian Zoll
Does anyone know where I can find data on deaths in Wuhan/Hubei vs outside Wuhan/Hubei by day?
There's some data on GitHub here, but not sure how complete they are.
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Old Mar 29, 2020, 11:18 pm
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Originally Posted by username
60 Minutes tonight:

Scott Pelley reports from hospitals in New York City, the new epicenter for COVID-19. Doctors describe how some patients with the disease can deteriorate suddenly and require lifesaving intensive care.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/new-yor...es-2020-03-29/
That's the problem and the scary part, according to various reports, there is no predictable pattern or path, it is very random, it may feel like you have no symptoms or improving and a few hours later you are in the ICU. And if land there it is a 50/50 chance at best, it seems.
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Old Mar 29, 2020, 11:39 pm
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To clarify:

Update: ‘A bit chaotic.’ Christening of new coronavirus and its disease name create confusion
- COVID-19 is a name for the disease, not for the virus that causes it, which until now had a temporary moniker, 2019-nCoV, signifying it was a novel coronavirus that emerged last year. But the pathogen also got a new designation, which arrived before Tedros had even finished his press conference, by way of a preprint posted on bioRxiv by the body charged with classifying and naming viruses. The Coronavirus Study Group (CSG) of the International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses, the paper noted, had decided that the virus is a variant of the coronavirus that caused an outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in 2002–03. So, it named the new pathogen severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus 2, or SARS-CoV-2.

But that’s not a name WHO is happy with, and the agency isn’t planning on adopting it. “From a risk communications perspective, using the name SARS can have unintended consequences in terms of creating unnecessary fear for some populations, especially in Asia which was worst affected by the SARS outbreak in 2003,” a WHO spokesperson wrote in an email to Science. “For that reason and others, in public communications WHO will refer to 'the virus responsible for COVID-19' or 'the COVID-19 virus,' but neither of these designations is intended as replacements for the official name of the virus" that the study group has picked. -

- It wouldn’t be the first time a virus and a disease have different names: the variola virus causes smallpox, for instance, and AIDS is caused by HIV.


Ziebuhr says WHO has informed him that the name doesn’t sit well with China, which has resisted any comparisons between the current crisis and traumatic SARS epidemic, which also emerged first in that country—if only because the new virus appears to have a lower mortality rate and far more often causes mild disease. “It’s important to make clear that this name is not a reference to the disease this virus causes. There is no link between the name and the disease SARS. That’s the difficulty that WHO is facing,” Ziebuhr says. He points out that hundreds of other viruses found in bats and other animals—many by Chinese researchers—all carry the same species name as well. -
There are complications due to Chinese politicization of the issue, but public health communications take precedence when governments need to get the word out.
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