MSPeconomist

I've known of some USA schools that have closed temporarily in response to particularly bad absence rates during flu epidemics. It wouldn't surprise me if a few places have done something similar for measles. Part of the SOP seems to be that the school is thoroughly cleaned while it's closed.

ADDED in response to the comment a couple posts above regarding the lack of media coverage in the USA: I've been finding that the financial news networks tend to have the most and most consistent coverage, including updated statistics, although with an emphasis on the impact on financial markets (not surprisingly).

CNBC in the USA has been broadcasting a half-hour special program on the WuFlu (not what they call it) early every weekday evening. It tends to be a mixture of numbers, interviews with health officials and other experts, and "human interest" stories of people, generally Americans, caught in Wuhan/China, on the Wuhan Princess, or in quarantine.

narvik

There's a general lack of attention to this, because it's all happening "over there somewhere" [at the moment].
Once it hits closer to home, they'll pounce on it like crazy.

Just look at this thread; although lively, it's more-or-less only visited by the same two dozen FT members.

MSPeconomist

I've been finding generally more awareness of the situation here in the USA than I would have expected, despite national network news and cable news tending to focus on impeachment proceedings and now the Democtratic primary elections almost exclusively.

However, I was shocked when a professor of pediatric infectious diseases tried to tell me very recently that WuFlu has a lower mortality rate than the regular flu, which is 20% he insisted. Maybe this is someone who never understood decimals, but anyone associated with a med school should know better.

GetSetJetSet

I certainly hope we're being insane and overly paranoid, but I don't think we are.

nk15

My guess is that next week this will change, radically, especially after the Italy news. I would also expect a pandemic declaration by Friday, if anything to perhaps assist with funding allocation to the problem, as this may be a relevant prerequisite?.

trueblu

I'm trying to post a bit less often, since obsessively checking FT is probably not the healthiest type of behaviour!

Fauci has come out and said we are on the brink of a pandemic, and I think that now, no matter what extreme measures Korea and Italy engage in, or how head in the sand Japan may be, we're going to be heading that way regardless. Iran must have many hundreds or possibly thousands of cases, and I suspect they "did a Wuhan" and suppressed information flow until the elections yesterday.

Until the CDC notice alluded to above, I was extremely concerned that US also has its head in the sand: that the administration was really worried about the 13 or whatever cases imported from DP made me think they have no idea what's around the corner. Luckily, it seems that the actual professionals are appropriately concerned. I still think the lack of centralised infrastructure for healthcare in the US is a vulnerability, and the typical "keep alive at all costs" approach to individual-centric healthcare delivery -- when resources are not stretched to the limit, and extremely limiting, there may be some argument for it, but I think we are going to have to make some hard choices if the Spring weather isn't on our side soon. I say this despite having elderly and vulnerable relatives in the US who have benefitted enormously from US-style medicine.

In terms of what we can do: I've stocked up on hand sanitizer! In reality, if we enter a full-blown pandemic, and by that I mean (arbitrarily for this point only) >1% of global population infected, it will be really, really hard to avoid getting infected unless one is one of those wood cabin survivalists. For the majority of people, that won't be a major threat, from what we know. But it's clear that although the elderly and those with co-morbidities are most at risk, it isn't the full picture. The single best preparedness on a governmental basis is to try to reduce onward transmission, acknowledging it won't be able to contain or eliminate, but in the hope that infrastructure doesn't get overwhelmed. Having 10-20% of the population infected in total will have very different consequences if 90% of those are infected within 1 month, or over a 4 month period.

In terms of minimising risk in e.g. high-rise buildings, I'm not an engineer, and jiejie has made some sensible suggestions. I think avoiding the lift if possible, or at the very least avoiding touching lift buttons with one's hand may be of some minor benefit. Avoid crowded public transport is another strategy: these suggestions aren't that easy to implement in real life.

Re: the question about those who are asymptomatic: not clearing the virus. I don't agree. From what we know, everyone either clears the virus or dies. However, for asymptomatic people, we have no idea how long viral shedding will last, and to what degree. I would still be surprised if it's more than 1-2 weeks, but we just don't know enough from the data I've seen.

And I do think we'll have to get used to working/ learning etc in a modified way over the next 6-12 months. If anyone wants to go to the cinema, now is the time: may not be a good idea in a couple of weeks. Same probably goes for the gym etc. In the rich North/ West our lives just haven't been disrupted to any significant degree in 75 years. I don't think this will be armageddon, but I think it will be an uncomfortable time.

Last thought: I'm still shocked that the travel advisories in place world-wide have not been revised. Israel just stated a large group of Korean tourists have been confirmed with COVID-19 upon return to Korea. Iran/Italy/ Korea/ Japan now all pose much, much greater threats than non-Hubei China (30 cases last 24hrs vs. 200) and with a fraction of the population of China.

tb

notquiteaff

“A federal court blocked efforts Friday night to transfer dozens of patients who tested positive for the coronavirus from Travis Air Force Base in Northern California to an empty building in Southern California.”

Dozens? How many do they have at Travis? I thought the positive cases from the DP evacuation had been sent to Nebraska and various NorCal hospitals, and the US overall only has 35 cases according to Worldometers.info ....

Perhaps they should lease a Motel 6 somewhere in the boonies of Northern California. Sounds like that would be more comfortable for the patients, easier to transport people to, and they don’t have shared HVAC

Only downside: no central entrances.

rdchen

Should US start to inspect all those rural hospitals that were closed in recent years to prepare for the possible outbreak?

jiejie

Key excerpts from the msn.com article linked above (my bolding):

"City officials said they were made aware of plans Thursday evening by regional representatives from state and local health agencies to transfer 30 to 50 patients to a building there. The patients would have arrived as early as Sunday, according to the court filing."

"An email to Travis Air Force Base was not immediately returned. Representatives from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the California Governor's Office of Emergency Services said they were not aware of the temporary injunction nor of plans to transfer patients from Northern to Southern California this weekend."

Dept of HHS/ CDC has jurisdiction over these evacuees. Not sure why state/local health agencies would think they have the power to shift people around. Not sure if this is poor reporting or some sort of attempted power grab going on. If so: Rule of Thumb is Feds always win, but California is often slow to realize this.

I'm also confused by the "dozens testing positive comment." Have a bunch more test results come back in the last 12-18 hours that show this? The CDC teleconference statement was straightforward--about 18 confirmed positives (5 of which are at Travis) and 10 more positives from Japan testing (pending additional US testing, and location of these people wasn't specified)--as was the comment that they expected to see more positives.

Or did CDC not come clean on the actual number of positives? The teleconference was Friday, the plan was supposedly got wind of on Thursday night per this site:
https://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/20...ents-transfer/

nk15

If things get bad, I start thinking preventative precautions within an apartment building will be relatively difficult, if not futile, and as good as the whole building and residents themselves, which will be uncontrollable. A country house (or a house) with supplies may be the best option, for those who have this option, but this will be unrealistic and/or very burdensome for most people, especially on such a short notice (and in general). So then, for most people the solution will be reasonable precautions, for whatever they are worth, acceptance (so you don't drive yourself mad), and reliance on your immune system as your best defense.

Hoyaheel

Well, looking at the Wiki - there are a LOT of COVID-19 threads that have been started in any of the potentially appropriate fora here. I appreciate that some people are still coming and posting here - this is the only thread on the topic I'm following right now. (I'm following other sources of news, too)

rdchen

Fairview Developmental Center is a state owned facility.

jiejie

Ultimately, I think the only way they can get some semblance of control over this is for everyone to stop traveling. Starting with international travel and possibly extending to intercity travel in certain countries. Unfortunately, nobody wants to be making the call and causing massive economic disruption.

GetSetJetSet

Assuming I have a house with a well on the property that's a short drive from my city, reasonable to stock some food and meds there and plan on riding it out?

notquiteaff

Are they anything but a dusty shell? Or were they mothballed for future (perhaps emergency) re-activation?