Do I have a chance at EUA?
 

Dear FT,

I am flying wed 8-12 EWR-LAS at 1 PM. Does this flight fill up with Plats or do i have a good chance at EUA at 3 days out? (I am CO Gold)

Thanks,

Your chance of an EUA 3 days out is 1.4%. Your chance of an upgrade at all is 15.6%.

What are his/her chances of a companion upgrade? :D

Seriously, we have no idea if you will clear. There might be a convention in LAS with alot of elites traveling; there might be a full cabin of paid F. There are too many variables in the equation. No one can really answer the question

Keep an eye on http://pda.continental.com/info to check how that flight is doing.

I got EUAd as a silver on a Sunday night back in June going EWR - LAS. I don't fly as much as most people on FT but would think that a Wed 1pm flight to Vegas would probably be the least elite heavy time of the week.

Y is sold out on that flight and 13 out of 20 F seats are already filled with a week to go. But you're not without hope. There are still quite a few premium seats open in Y, especially in the exit rows, which suggests a lower % of elites than might be typical for a flight out of EWR. I'd say the 1.4% for EUA and 15.6% for ultimately sitting in F is about right. (I'm sure ijgordon employed a rigorous scientific method to get these numbers.) Hopefully you already snagged an exit row or bulkhead seat.

You have a good chance at EUA at 3 days out.

Probably better than 15%...
 

My better half (Gold) has been upgraded more than half the time in/out of LV this year. LV flights are headed to/from a leisure deestination and normally don't carry a high percentage of gold/platinum elites except for a few conventions (CES comes to mind), plus even the conventions are whittled back due to the current economic climate.

If it doesn't occur 3 days out, don't assume you're not getting it. Half of her upgrades didn't come in at the 3-day mark. Good luck...

Just to put in my two cents...(don't know how similar the Elite loads are to EWR, but anyway..)

I fly to Vegas two or three times/yr. out of IAH. Almost always leave on a Tuesday afternoon and come back on Saturday afternoon/evening. I've never been upgraded on the Tuesday afternoon flight, but always get the EUA 24 hrs. out on the Saturday return. As a friend of mine says, "Who the heck leaves Vegas on a Saturday??" That's probably why I never have a problem getting the EUA. :)

IMHO, the closer you get to the weekend, the harder it is to get an upgrade, so Wednesday afternoons would be even tougher than Tuesdays. I've been upgraded every time I take the first flight out in the morning on a Tuesday, but the afternoon flights allow for connecting passengers (including a lot of Elites who outrank me) to fill up the FC cabin. As a Silver, I'm fairly pleased with my EUA % overall on my Vegas trips. Golds should obviously do even better...... and I'll be Gold next month, so we'll see ! :)

I think there is a very big difference between Gold and Silver in terms of elite upgrade chances.

Well, I wouldn't say "a few conventions", there are a LOT more conventions and meetings in Las Vegas than just the well-publicized biggies. Throughout much of 2008 I was going to Las Vegas practically monthly for meetings, in paid F due to company policy (> 5 hours). On many flights there were few to no upgrades, per the PDA website. And many of those upgrades were elite Y-UPs. Things have changed for sure: my (former) employer no longer pays for F domestically and of course the meeting & convention business is down, but so is capacity.

In any event, I think upgrades to LAS can be just as much a crapshoot as...well...a crap shoot.

The OP is Gold, hence better than 15% chance in my opinion for a mid-week flight.

And there are a lot of conventions in LV (I think LV and Chigago are the two biggies in the US if I'm not mistaken), but that doesn't necessarily mean an inordinate amount of elite fliers. There are a lot of conventions attended by people who really don't do too much flying as a part of their job. I would guess most convention attendees have lowest-tier or no status. I referred to the CES because it is a large one and it would probably draw a larger # of elite flyers by sheer size, although attendance has dipped recently.

It is an M fare for the EWR-LAS leg. Also, how do you all place those "quotes" or previous statements from others in your replies? And how do you place two separate ones in the reply? Please help me. Yes, i did look at the FAQs and I was a bit confused...

Thanks in advance

Wirelessly posted (BlackBerry9630/4.7.1.40 Profile/MIDP-2.0 Configuration/CLDC-1.1 VendorID/104)

Assuming you're not accessing with a PDA from the mobile site, you can use the multiquote feature by clicking the + sign below posts you would like to quote.

An M gold fare. Who's ahead of you, possibly:

Any Elite with a Y fare.
A Platinum or Gold with a B fare
A Platinum with an M fare.

All three would be upgraded at booking, though, if there was space in the right fare category. I'd say with an M fare, and everyone ahead of you on the list with a 'right' to a FC ticket at booking, your chances are relatively good.

At the 3 day window, does the system usually do it at midnight or the time of departure in IAH time or in the dept city time OR it is totally random?

72 hours before departure time. Should happen at 1 PM on 8/9