EUA Odds: EWR-SFO
 

I will be flying on Sunday, June 14. I am flexible with my time. All flights are 738 metal, except for #348 (5:30PM), which is a 753 (I am holding seat 8C on that flight). I decided on #348 since there is a larger FC cabin, thinking I'd have a better shot at an EUA, although a larger bird means it's a more popular flight, so that logic may be flawed.

Given that I am flexible with time, is there another flight that offers a better shot at an EUA, or am I better off sticking with 8C on the current flight and hope for the best?

(I am a Plat on CO).

The very early Sunday morning flight might be a better shot, but I think your chance for an EUA on this route is extraordinarily low all around. I routinely find it difficult to even buy a full fare F ticket on this route. What fare class are you booking?

The FAQ touches on that and includes a little bit of info about F to Y seat ratios.

AMF in NJ: thanks for the helpful link.

rjque: it's an H fare

H will give you a decent shot if there are any F seats left by the day of departure. Have you looked at the price difference between B and H? It might be worth it to pay that to get immediately confirmed into F. Otherwise, I would make sure I had a good Y seat and expect to fly Y. Non-full-Y/B upgrades are very uncommon on this route, even as a plat in a high fare class.

the old H is the new B = same fare

as for EUAs I would book a flight that meets my time schedule as if an UP will occur it most likely will be a battlefield.

SFO gets alot of people paying for FC not asa Y/BUP so if you NEED FC its best to pay for it in this mkt

I guess I assumed the OP was talking about new H, not old H.

Thanks for the advice. Just checked and B is $998 R/T vs. $398 I am paying in H. 8C is a pretty good Y seat, so I'll just be happy with that. 8C isn't as good as 1B, but it's better than 41B. :)

I knew I wouldn't have a good chance at an upgrade on this route, but I was wondering if some flights had a better shot than others.

my my I forgot the old N is the new H

Santa Anita
 

About the same chance as the #7 horse in the 5th race

Let me guess Santa Anita only runs 4 races max or allows 6 horses max per race

I fly EWR-SFO-EWR quite a bit and have yet to get an upgrade either way even when I have purchased the old H fares and flown at less popular times/days.

OUCH but you did get a turkey sandwhich and 50% eqm bonus

I suggest 448 or 548 for the EUA and probability of being on time. I fly this route quite a bit and have had a pretty good EUA when not full fare % and even scored several companion upgrades. Most recently EUAd both ways several days out on a W fare. It's difficult but it does happen.

Never Been
 

I've never been to Santa Anita

But you get the jist

I have done many trans cons to SFO

Even as an Infinite I most recently

used award ups to be sure