I'm not doubting you and would like to read more abouut this. Can you reference any articles or websites that state that the airline industry as we know it is not sustainable at $150.+oil. This is getting very scary and from what I am reading the price of cruse is being driven up my speculators.

I'm with you. I used to take very frequent trips. Over 50,000 miles a year leisure travel. With the price hikes, I am down to about 4 trips a year, and I am thankful for that. I am sure that there are many people out there, who would consider that a lot.

By the way, gardening is not so bad. I already have a good head start on it, and have a backyard to die for, but it isn't cheap either. Your money can go just as quickly in a garden center, than it can on travel. Especially, when some of these garden centers have realized that they can take one marigold, put it in an individual pot, and then charge you $9 for it.

Even with a good job, and pay increases, my standard of living is going down rather than up. I simply can't imagine what some less fortunate are doing.

senatorgirth is right.

You should be realistic about this. Keep yourself properly informed and read widely. Then you'll be better prepared for what's coming.

This isn't some ideological war. It's the free market at work with a rapidly-disappearing resource. Your way of life is about to change, if not voluntarily, then through force majeure.

Never mind $150/barrel oil. Most airlines aren't profitable at anything over $100 with their current business models.

You can start here for a small selection of airline analyst's quotes:

http://www.airlines.org/news/May+2008+Quotables.htm

How about this testimony to Aviation Subcommittee Hearing on the DL/NW merger:

"Wall Street currently estimates that, with oil at $110 per barrel, the U.S. airline industry will lose approximately $4.5 billion this year."

http://testimony.ost.dot.gov/test/reynolds2.htm

Is oil at $110 per barrel? No, today it's 26% higher than that. Would your business stay solvent for long if it lost $4.5 billion in one year, never mind a much larger figure? That's a $13million loss per day...at $110/barrel. What is it now, at $139 per barrel? Do you really think oil's rise will stop tomorrow and it will drop to $100/barrel or less and stay there for some significant time? Because that's what would be needed to remove the risk of impending BK for many carriers.

How about Michael O'Leary's view?

"The budget airline, which has claimed that many of its rivals may soon go bust, admitted today that it would only break even this year if oil remains at around $130 a barrel.

Chief executive Michael O'Leary said Ryanair, which cut fares by about 1% last year, would survive and profit in the turbulent airline industry.

"People are getting more price-sensitive, they're trading down and flying with us at a time when the business-only airlines are going bust," said O'Leary, referring to SilverJet's descent into administration on Friday.

He said that if the oil price remained at around $130 a barrel, some airlines would be out of business by November.

FR has by a long way the lowest unit CASM costs in commercial aviation. If they can't make it work at $130/barrel, nobody can.

For instance, "Delta CEO Richard Anderson said airlines need to raise fares by 15 to 20 per cent to break even if oil hits US$120 per barrel."

http://travel.canoe.ca/Travel/News/2...387781-cp.html

But bearing in mind many airlines have some hedging in place, i.e. are currently buying some proportion of their fuel at much less than the spot market rate, "you ain't seen nuthin' yet."

Just wait until the hedging expires.

You can find quotes from most major airline CEO's telling the investors and the market that their current business model can't generate profit at $120/barrel.

Oil is a finite resource. This isn't a simplistic either/or situation. Speculation is happening, but it doesn't account for the ferocity of the recent increase. This ramp-up has long been predicted. Google "Hubbert" and see what you find. We're here now, it's happening fast.

Accept this, and begin your adaptation to a different lifestyle.

A significant percentage of Elite flyers across all airlines on these boards at FT are saying "redeem now." Lock in those awards. I've done it, and many others have. And whether we get to even fly or not is a question, because there's no doubt in my mind some carriers are going Chapter 7 soon. This fall we're going to see the largest and fastest restructuring of commercial aviation in history.

Some people call this panic. I call it a realistic assessment of the situation.

I still call it a panic.

I'm with you

How much oil is left?
 

Sitting in the middle of oil and gas country you would hear a different tune. No one knows how much oil is really out there because so much is off limits to exploration...and price points make once difficult oil now affordable to get to. I agree 100% that we need alternatives, but idiot moves like restricting safe nuclear power, burning our food for fuel, and preventing drilling on a postage stamp sized area of a frozen north wasteland are typical of a society that misses the mark.

But I digress....we've been hit with airfares to cities like DEN/SEA/SFO/BOS etc. at the $800 and above mark for 14d advance purchase for more than 2 months now. I don't see schedule changes yet for SHV as there are still E135's on the schedule several months out along with the usual chorus of SAAB's. I don't see us sustaining 8 flights to IAH much longer.

Time to build train cars if anyone wants to move around.

60% increase on this ticket
 

Another flight I need to take in August is MCI-CLE RT, to help settle my mother's estate. 2 weeks ago I did this trip and paid $220 for the ticket (bought in April). Now when I check for early August, same flights same day of the week it is $357, a 60% increase. I can do the same trip on SW for $260. Is it worth $100 for a non stop. No. How come SW can fly the same route cheaper than CO? I do have to make this trip as an executor/trustee and cannot take care of legal matters over the phone. Otherwise I wouldn't be going. So SW it is.

They were smart with their fuel hedging.

Southwest is pretty famous for having the cash to hedge their fuel costs. Wikipedia says that 65% of their fuel for this year is locked in at a cost of $49/barrel. Not to shabby when it cost $135/barrel. But this won't last forever as WN will have to make serious choices to either hedge oil at the current price or wait it out and hope it goes down. At that pint they'll be like the other carriers.

I thouhgt I read a post here where CO did the same thing :confused:

This been bugging me for two days now - its a 50% increase not 35%

Now I'm even more PO'd at the fare increase. Too bad SW doesn't fly to Europe.
Susie