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-   -   Continental Pre/Post Merger Speculation Discussion Thread (https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/continental-onepass-pre-merger/813075-continental-pre-post-merger-speculation-discussion-thread.html)

tuolumne Oct 17, 2007 5:46 pm


Originally Posted by entropy (Post 8523760)
Unfortunately, UA comes with the UA flight crews... and lousy old planes, including even Airbii, which CO wouldn't want....

United has one of the youngest fleets of all the legacy carriers, including nearly 50 Boeing 777-200 and 150 A319/A320 jets. Lousy old planes? :rolleyes:


Originally Posted by entropy (Post 8523760)
If I were to "merge" CO with UA, it would go something like this:
CO management takes over the combined operation, which would be kept separate. Schedules would be coordinated, and FFP would be combined.....

United is looking to aquire.


Originally Posted by entropy (Post 8523760)
The UA A320s and 737's get sold off and replaced with CO 737NGs.
763's, 777s, 747s and 757s get refreshed to CO standards. ....

By "refresh to CO standards", do you mean pulling economy plus, the first suite, and cancelling the $185 million IPP rollout?

Can't wait...


:shudders:

J.Edward Oct 17, 2007 5:51 pm

Wirelessly posted (HTCP4350-Mozilla/4.0 (compatible; MSIE 4.01; Windows CE; PPC))


Originally Posted by tuolumne
United is looking to aquire.

No. Tilton is looking to merge; failing that he'll look to sell off parts, even if it means hacking the company to pieces.

tuolumne Oct 17, 2007 5:54 pm


Originally Posted by entropy (Post 8524691)
Interesting, SFOGate, It would be really nice to have a (much) bigger club in SFO (also beyond security, but the AS club is good for that too).


As for CO taking over UA? Look at HP/US. US was bigger than HP but HP took over, and same with US trying to buy DL.

For the Airbii... CO not wanting them has less to do with the Y product and more to do with the fact that CO doesn't want to fly Airbii.


That's not even a relevant comparison. US airways was on the brink of filling for ch. 7 at the time of the takeover. United is sitting on $5.5 billion dollars in cash, has one of the highest operating margins and revenue streams in the industry, not to mention the frequent flyer program worth nearly $8 billion dollars.

And Continental doesn't want to have a big bad airbus in their fleet? Bo Hoo, final decision comes down to which is more effective in fitting in with the business plan. And as already mentioned, the domestic A320 product is much superior to the CO 737 one.

entropy Oct 17, 2007 5:55 pm

United may be looking to acquire but they don't know how to build value in a company other than throwing their debts overboard. Wall Street knows which management team is better, and their address is at Smith Street.

United has 92 very old 737 classics
97 old 757's
and 32 old 763's
in addition to have 20 772As (The oldest with much less range than CO's)

Even their new planes, look at how ratty they are, many of which have paint peeling. its pathetic.

United also has lousy labor relations.

JetSet78 Oct 17, 2007 6:03 pm


Originally Posted by entropy (Post 8577479)
United may be looking to acquire but they don't know how to build value in a company other than throwing their debts overboard. Wall Street knows which management team is better, and their address is at Smith Street.

United has 92 very old 737 classics
97 old 757's
and 32 old 763's
in addition to have 20 772As (The oldest with much less range than CO's)

Even their new planes, look at how ratty they are, many of which have paint peeling. its pathetic.

United also has lousy labor relations.

I'm with ya on that analysis!

entropy Oct 17, 2007 7:24 pm


That's not even a relevant comparison. US airways was on the brink of filling for ch. 7 at the time of the takeover. United is sitting on $5.5 billion dollars in cash, has one of the highest operating margins and revenue streams in the industry, not to mention the frequent flyer program worth nearly $8 billion dollars.
THEY think their FFP is worth $8B, reality is a different story. UA's net profit margin last Q was 5.24%, CO's is over 6.15%. But CO's return on equity is more than double UA's.


And Continental doesn't want to have a big bad airbus in their fleet? Bo Hoo, final decision comes down to which is more effective in fitting in with the business plan. And as already mentioned, the domestic A320 product is much superior to the CO 737 one.
CO's business plan is Working Together: Clean, Safe and Reliable.

more than doubling the number of fleet types doesn't fit in with reliable. UA's employees are not happy, and integrating them with CO's would be a mess. So, no, it doesn't make sense with their business plan. You don't need to take my word for it, Larry and Jeff both have no desire for a merger.

OPFlyer Oct 17, 2007 7:35 pm


Originally Posted by entropy (Post 8577862)
You don't need to take my word for it, Larry and Jeff both have no desire for a merger.

I can almost guarantee that if NW megers with DL, CO will be looking for a merger partner faster than you can say "Work hard, fly right".

puckmank Oct 17, 2007 8:39 pm

all i know is that having been a 1k flyer when i lived in Denver I really don't like the idea of Continental merging with United. If for no other reason than the flight attendants are nicer on Continental.

tuolumne Oct 18, 2007 10:52 am


Originally Posted by entropy (Post 8577479)
United may be looking to acquire but they don't know how to build value in a company other than throwing their debts overboard.


Leave it to you to somehow make the case that paying down $1 billion dollars of debt in Q1 07 was a BAD thing.


Originally Posted by entropy (Post 8577479)
its pathetic..

[

How do you dispute the fact that their fleet is one of the youngest of all the legacy carriers? You're previous generalization of UA having a terrible old fleet of airplanes has already been debunked. Moreover, United has stated that they are investing $4 billion dollars in the next four years to make them into America's premium airline. Before you say it, yes the hard product has to improve (greatly) before any nice seats make it the leader for service.


Originally Posted by entropy (Post 8577479)
United also has lousy labor relations.

Agreed.

This has nothing to do with the cleanliness of their airplanes, as it's contracted out to Swissair! United needs to do a better job with their employee relations, but that certainly doesn't marginalize their prospects for acquiring another airline. Mileage Plus alone, as previously stated is worth many billions of dollars.

All this crap about Continental being more inclined with investment banks simply becuase they are from Texas...Give me a break. United got $3 Billion in exit financing from "investment banks" too.

pbarnette Oct 18, 2007 11:47 am


Originally Posted by J.Edward (Post 8577200)
If scheduling is the major factor for high J customers than CO also seems to be on the right path through offering n/s flights from the US.

I've said it before, and I will say it again. I don't see how CO has a scheduling advantage over other airlines in any markets other than NYC. For the rest of the country, a connection is a connection is a connection. Take CPH-BOS, for example. The following airlines do the route in less time than CO can on at least one leg (and are better or roughly the same on the other): FI, BA, NW, LX, LH, and VS. Similarly, ex-SFO, the outbound flight on CO will be nearly 20 hours, versus roughly 15. I would suspect that the same might be true of many other TATL destinations.

And this doesn't even address the fact that CO doesn't stand a chance at competing on the major city pair routes (BOS/SFO/LAX/IAD/etc-LON/CDG/FRA/AMS).

Now, having a scheduling advantage ex-NYC is clearly a much bigger plus than having it ex-BOS or ex-SFO, but does it make up for all the other traffic?

senatorgirth Oct 18, 2007 11:55 am


Originally Posted by pbarnette (Post 8581822)
I've said it before, and I will say it again. I don't see how CO has a scheduling advantage over other airlines in any markets other than NYC.

CO's position in IAH is strong, too. Though they face TATL competition from AF/KL/BA/LH, CO's strength on domestic routes out of the Bayou City means that CO is the go-to airline for a large part of the oil/gas/oil services businesses. And these folks fill CO's premium cabins at fat J fares.

J.Edward Oct 18, 2007 11:56 am


Originally Posted by tuolumne (Post 8581470)
How do you dispute the fact that their fleet [UA] is one of the youngest of all the legacy carriers?

Perhaps the better question to ask is why one would suspect UA of having "one of the youngest" to which I suspect the answer is either Ignorance® or Delusion® or both.

Continental Fleet Age:
Code:

Boeing 737          110          15.7 years         
Boeing 737N        152        6.9 years       
Boeing 757        58        9.1 years       
Boeing 767        26        6.3 years       
Boeing 777        20        7.4 years       

Average Mainline Fleet Age: 9.9 Years

United Fleet Age:
Code:

Airbus A319          55          7.8 years         
Airbus A320        39        11.5 years       
Boeing 737        90        18 years       
Boeing 747        30        12.3 years       
Boeing 757        97        15.5 years       
Boeing 767        35        12.4 years       
Boeing 777        52        9.2 years

Average Mainline Fleet Age: 13.3 Years


rkkwan Oct 18, 2007 12:21 pm

For fleet age, check out this page:

http://www.airsafe.com/events/airlines/fleetage.htm

Numbers are from April 2006. Note that UA mainline has not gotten any new planes, and has none on order.

They have older fleet than NW, US/HP, CO. And with DL getting new planes while UA not, they may be behind DL soon, if not already.

CO's fleet is also getting newer, with some 733/5s retiring now and 33 737NGs coming in 2008. Then 787s starting to come 2009.

entropy Oct 18, 2007 1:05 pm


Leave it to you to somehow make the case that paying down $1 billion dollars of debt in Q1 07 was a BAD thing.
Tell that to the creditors whose claims were discharged (on the order of $20 BILLION).


How do you dispute the fact that their fleet is one of the youngest of all the legacy carriers?
Compared to what? NW? United hasn't taken delivery of a single new airplane in years. CO's widebody fleet is all <10 years old. The old 733s are dragging them down but those are on the way out, to be replaced by brand new planes.
If united is spending $4B to refurbish its planes that's great. Its about time.

If you think that UA contracting out their cleaning to SwissPort absolves them of responsibility, what planet are you on? If CO's planes were filthy with a contracted crew they'd fix it by getting them to do it right or firing them.

senatorgirth Oct 18, 2007 3:32 pm

Interesting data that J.Edward posts. I'm struck by two things:

1. UA's fleet is approx. 10% larger than CO's. I thought the difference was bigger.

2. The big difference in the percentage of fleet that is widebody aircraft. Only 12.6% of CO's fleet are twin aisle birds versus 29.4% of UA's fleet.


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