Expected '07 Changes to OnePass
 

With Labor Day here and the summer unofficially over, we advance into spring... when changes are decided with the following program year frequent flyer programs. With that being said, what changes do you think will happen to OnePass in '07?

Here's my guesses...

-OnePass reward names will be changed. Cigarman hinted at such at the last mini-do; we'll probably see something like Standard (formerly Easypass) and Restricted Saver (formerly standard.)

-OnePass awards and upgrade mileage will go up. I suspect transoceanic rewards, including flights to Hawaii, will increase ..probably by 10-25k miles.

-As posted in the DL forum, Continental/Delta will swap reciprocal elite upgrades, giving DL passengers the opportunity to fly in F on CO and vice versa.

-Upgrade priorities will change across CO/NW/DL with that metal's carrier clearing all of their Platinum/Gold/Silver before clearing the other carrier's Platinum/Gold/Silver.

-Platinums (or better) will be able to get a confirmed upgrade to BF on any paid Y fare on transoceanic travel, excluding Hawaii. I think this is why you see an new/different R class popping up on such routes starting January 8.

-I think '07 will be the year we see CO unveil a category above Platinum. At the last Do's in Houston, there was a lot of "we're looking into it" being said by the CO folks. I think they're done looking into it and will do something about it next year.

Now lets see if all of my predictions come true... :D

If anything, I see DL/NW going recip on comp. upgrades, but CO/DL retaining the status quo to protect their respective FFer bases.

If the priorities change as suggested here, then not much reason to fly DL or NW if you are a CO Plat and vice versa. Hard for CO Gold and CO Silver to get upgraded - so a DL or NW elite would have no chance at all. So why make the upgrades reciprocal. It should likely be grouped within elite status - then fare.

If a new tier above Plat is added and DL and NW do not add the same - then the best the tier could do would be to have some SWU or other specials. Maybe just call it Plat Plus - and Plat Plus is just ranked within the Plat category for upgrade. NW does have some special benefits for over 75K flyers on high fares - maybe it would be something that that. Say to earn elite above 75k only high fare categories get EQM.

Otherwise what you are going to get - is FT'ers doing lots of mileage runs to get the top tier to get upgrades on cheap tickets over regular Plats on high fares. Now - with the top tier being Plat - the higher fare tickets get the priority. Yes it is just another level - but it the level gets too high so business travelers fall down to regular Plat then the current fare category ranking goes out the door.

Aren't we advancing into fall? ;)

I don't think that we'll see CO and DL roll out reciprocal upgrades.

I don't see any reason to believe that transoceanic rewards will increase in price - CO just increased the price of Hawaii J rewards (2? years ago) and it wasn't until last year that NW raised its rates to make the three US Skyteam carriers almost completely in line with one another. In addition, DL still has a 90k mile BE reward to Europe, out of line with CO/NW.

I don't expect the three US Skyteam carriers to clear all their own elites before the elites of other carriers - I expect that the upgrade priority system will remain the same.

I don't think that CO will roll out a level above Platinum this year, but the possibility certainly exists. I think that CO would be more inclined to introduce additional incentives to Plats who cross certain post-75k milestones, like an SWU at 100k, 125k, etc.

No other grand predictions come to mind at the moment.

the only change posted for '07 onepass changes on the website is this:


Effective January 8, 2007, R* fare class will receive 100% base miles, 150% Elite Qualification Miles and two Elite Qualification Points. Customers flying in J, D, Z, C and A fare classes will continue to earn 150% base miles, 150% Elite Qualification Miles and two Elite Qualification Points.

Learn more about Elite qualificiation requirements.

*Customers flying in R fare class prior to September 20, 2006 were on a mileage upgrade and miles were determined by the Economy class of service. Customers flying in R fare class from September 20, 2006 through January 7, 2007 will receive 150% base miles, 150% Elite Qualification Miles and two Elite Qualification Points.

AeroRepublica Minimum Miles
 

With Avianca having upped their minimum miles to 500 per segment, I hope that OnePass does the same for flights on AeroRepublica. I know that it doesn't mean much for a lot of people in here, but I'm really one for consistency.

I wonder why they would change the names. They've spent many years branding the current names. Is there a reason to change the name?


It wouldn't surprise me; though I think that people would have a legitimate beef if the "price" went up, but the availability remained the same.


I am excited about the prospects for such an arrangement. I have started to look at DL's FF program in more detail. The fact that DL offers a way to get elite-for-life is appealing to me. I could still fly CO, but benefit from DL's better program. DL has SWU's too.


I'd be surprised if CO elects this option. If the intent is to discourage FFer's from NW (and maybe DL), then I can see the carrier select this option.


Interesting idea; I can definitely see this option kick in. I would also like to see CO piggy back on the Z fare: when the Z fares for BF overseas are offered, also offer a coach fare at the same--or even slightly elevated price--but let people automatically upgrade to BF. Many companies do not allow people to buy a J fare, so CO should help its customers out!


Now that would be an interesting idea. We'll all have to stay tuned to see what happens.

Thanks for this interesting post.

I would be suprised if you're correct...DL insiders have said to fellow FT'ers that they are programming their systems to accomplish this very fact and expect it to be ready for both NW & CO in 2007

I don't doubt that they're working towards making it technically feasible - thing is, Delta's intention to make JFK a full-fledged hub is certainly worrying CO and I'd bet the farm that CO is re-examining many of its current and planned cooperative activities with the Widget. It'd make good sense, IMHO, to disallow reciprocal upgrades between the airlines in order to protect the frequent-flyer customer base from poaching, much as AA/BA have mutually disallowed USA-London mileage accrual and redemption to protect their respective premium traffic bases.

Correct me if I'm mistaken, but I think this was a requirement for regulators, both in the EU and US, to approve the AA/BA partner agreement. IIRC, authorities were concerned about monopolistic practices ex. LHR to the US by a partnership between BA/AA and therefore required they give up an significant number of LHR slots (60+?) or reduce the potency of the partnership. Not surprisingly, they opted for the latter over the former and as such diluted FF benefits (as HeathrowGuy sights in his post) were a "weakened" component among others.

At no time has any government authority, on either side of the Atlantic, prohibited AA and BA from engaging in routine receiprocal frequent-flyer activities. The carriers implemented the restriction for commercial reasons - namely, to protect their respective premium traffic flows from poaching by the other airline.

In that case, the best program to have status in would be NW. Get upgrades on all three carriers but not have to compete with DL fliers on CO.

I don't see this happening, though.

Considering that CO's 50% EQM policies effectively discourage using Skyteam (but not AS) partners I would tend to agree. CO is clearly not very interested in making the Skyteam partnership very beneficial for Elite flyers - instead taking measures to make using parters much more of a "last resort" option. Adding DL upgrade reciprocity would just make DL flights more attractive to CO Elites which I doubt CO wants any part of.

Exactly.

The current reciprocal upgrade regime with NWA poses little threat, because the two airlines have very different network strengths and major markets, meaning that there's little chance of NWA stealing a significant number of CO Elites (and vice versa). Delta and CO, OTOH, heavily overlap in the East (and will step on each others' toes even more with the development of the DL JFK hub) - removing a significant disincentive to stick to CO will almost certainly result in some revenue defection to Delta (esp. from NYC-based FFers).

Now, I don't doubt that CO is working towards the technical ability to process upgrades on Delta (perhaps to allow reciprocal mileage upgrades, for instance). But the JFK hub development and DL internatinoal buildup are definitiely causing some hard re-thinking of CO's relationship with Delta.

once CO and UA merge there won't be any more CO in Skyteam anyways ;)