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-   -   Being a devil's advocate... (https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/continental-onepass-pre-merger/46516-being-devils-advocate.html)

venk Sep 19, 2003 8:50 pm

Being a devil's advocate...
 
Since the devil is unlikely to come and argue his company's position here, I decided to be an advocate for him.

So here is the view from the other side.

CO is not against its best customers. We value every one of our customers. However, the reality of the airline business has forced us to take some hard decisions.

The airline industry is suffering from over capacity (too many seats chasing too few travelers) which results in a downward pressure on pricing thereby squeezing margins to the minimum. In addition, the economy and events of the last two years has significantly reduced travel from business sector.

The travel experience and benefits that customers get for their tickets and the cost structures of the major airlines were decided/designed in the era when the pricing and margins were much higher.

With the margins decreasing, any reasonable business will first cut its costs and try to match supply to demand. We have done significant work to reduce our costs without demoralizing our team and continuing to provide a safe and clean travel experience. While we continue to reduce supply, the overcapacity in the industry is beyond the control of any one airline and we expect this situation to continue for a number of years to come.

In this situation, the only other thing left for us to do is to match the product and services we provide in line with the prices we can charge for it.

At one extreme, the low fares demanded due to competition with low cost carriers requires us to reduce the services afforded for such tickets to the minimum provided for these carriers - basic and safe transport from point A to point B. At the other extreme, the high fares realizable from our best customers who demand high comfort and levels of service in return deserve the very best we can provide them.

It is with this need to rationalize the product and levels of service with the price that we have instituted both improvements (Elite Access and improved BF) when our customers have paid a high price as well as some reductions in benefits when our customers have taken advantage of our low pricing dictated by the competitive markets.

While we have not held ourselves to some of the statements in the past, one thing I can guarantee going forward is that this philosophy of matching the product and level of service (both immediate and cumulative) to fares paid will continue to be our primary guide and we will be very consistent in making our decisions based on it.

We are not against any particular segment of our OnePass members all of whom are very valuable for our business. When any of our OnePass members purchase a ticket they get benefits as a result of their past relationship with us and they get certain "currency" (miles, bonuses, etc.) that allow them to realize benefits in the future.

While we have tried to maintain the benefits provided to our customers based on past relationship (as reflected by their elite status) as much as we can in the current climate, we have to use our philosophy to match the "currency" we provide for future benefits with the price paid for each ticket.

As a first step, we have instituted changes to reduce the elite qualifying miles for lower fares as this "currency" has the biggest impact on our costs for providing future benefits. Similarly, we have instituted charges on our lower fares on international flights since the benefit of miles upgrades to BF was not commensurate with the lower fares paid. Alternatively, we could have set up a tiered miles table for upgrades based on the fares paid but it is impossible to match the cost of that benefit using just miles.

Hope this explains our position on the matter and lays to rest any doubts that we are against any segment of our customers despite what we may have inadvertantly said earlier.

NJDavid Sep 19, 2003 9:23 pm

Cute!

A few brief comments:

While we have not held ourselves to some of the statements in the past, one thing I can guarantee going forward

'While we are born liars always out to deceive you, we really want you to trust us now as we attempt to clean your clock one more time' Even cleaned up this concept does not cut it. I'm still not sure if our "cockroach pin" should read "Gordo thinks I'm a shmuck" or simply "Fire the Liar"

While we have tried to maintain the benefits provided to our customers based on past relationship (as reflected by their elite status) as much as we can in the current climate, we have to use our philosophy to match the "currency" we provide for future benefits with the price paid for each ticket.

Not gonna cut it. They now overtly attempt to reduce the distribution of their "currency" for lower priced tickets, while all along they've made the extortion of "easy pass" the only option for non Saturday night stay trips, and nearly the only option everywhere else. Their covert tremendous reduction in the value of their "currency" shows that this overt act is merely to coerce flyers into paying more than they have to.

At one extreme, the low fares demanded due to competition with low cost carriers requires us to reduce the services afforded for such tickets to the minimum provided for these carriers - basic and safe transport from point A to point B. At the other extreme, the high fares realizable from our best customers who demand high comfort and levels of service in return deserve the very best we can provide them.



Unfortunately, this again masks the cold truth that there IS NO DIFFERENCE between the services afforded the traveler who purchased seat 8A two months ago at $300 and 8C yesterday at $3000. Until they adopt the new world model of reasonable prices for all fare classes, they will be burdened to lie about additional value that does not exist. Flying the row 8 seat may cost them a bit more than the $300, but it doesn't cost them $3000. That delta ( http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/wink.gif ) is just what Gordo-The-Liar expects his eight figure salary to come from, and it just won't work any more.



channa Sep 19, 2003 9:26 pm

venk, very well written.

However, this is not the view from the other side. The other side did not respect its customers enough to announce the change and clearly explain the rationale as you did. Instead, they tried to play up a good news event, and while that was still in the buzz, they tried to squeeze in the bad news. It was an orchestrated PR move, and it insults the intelligence of the very customers they allegedly want to keep.

Announce the change, explain the rationale as venk did, that's all that people want to hear. They'll empathize or take action accordingly.

tcook052 Sep 19, 2003 9:26 pm

While I appreciate you presenting the company's viewpoint in a straightforward post, I have some troubles with parts of the explained rational behind the changes.

"The travel experience and benefits that customers get for their tickets and the cost structures of the major airlines were decided/designed in the era when the pricing and margins were much higher."

Does this mean it's the pax fault the market has changed and the CO has been unwilling or unable to keep up with the times? Or that pax are expecting way too much from airline's these days and must scale back their expectations?

It sounds much like the identity crisis Air Canada is in the midst of at the moment: trying to compete with the Low Cost Carriers while still providing perks for the pax who are paying much higher fares. I wish CO lots of luck because trying to be all things to all people hasn't been working for AC for some time. Ultimately, the market will decide who flys off into the wild blue yonder and who left on the ground.


Nevsky Sep 20, 2003 12:38 am


<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by venk:
....
CO is not against its best customers. We value every one of our customers. However, the reality of the airline business has forced us to take some hard decisions.
....
In this situation, the only other thing left for us to do is to match the product and services we provide in line with the prices we can charge for it.
...
It is with this need to rationalize the product and levels of service with the price that we have instituted both improvements (Elite Access and improved BF) when our customers have paid a high price as well as some reductions in benefits when our customers have taken advantage of our low pricing dictated by the competitive markets.
</font>
First , I must compliment you for taking the time to write a very well written letter, but it seems to be based on the same myopic thinking that many executives in the airline business have.

They are constantly looking at their perceived value of the product and not looking at what makes some people fly and remain loyal to a certain airline, as well as not focusing on marginal costs and marginal revenue.

Further, even if for the sake of argument, everything you said is correct (which I do not think is the case), some of the same objectives could have been accomplished in a much more customer friendly way that might have had the dual benefit of increasing customer satisfaction (or, as Hippocrates might say, in a way that does no harm (or at least minimizes it) and increases revenue.

I know a lot of thought went into this decision at the top and senior management is willing to take the flack thinking they are right, but they might be wrong. One thing I really do not think they did was talk to frequent flyers and do focus groups to find out how to have a win-win situation or at least not a win-lose (for the customer), which seems to be the goal, but will probably turn out to be lose-lose at the end of the day.

I think the executives went into this thinking solely about increasing revenues (**** the torpedoes) with an inside the beltway (or whatever it is in Houston) mentality that does not understand how the real world lives.

There are some people who travel for business and have to keep to the lowest fare, but maybe their corporate travel policy allows for C class to Asia. Well, that person may only do one flight per year to Asia and the rest at Q/T/S, and that person is probably reasonably profitable for the airline, but if that person does not get elite status under the new rules and the accompanying perks which cost almost nothing incrementally, he/she will have no loyalty to CO and will probably fly Singapore Airlines (or whichever airline) to Asia, as well as a lot more Southwest and JetBlue (love those seats and TV) in the US. Has CO really won here? LOSE-LOSE. Maybe the rules could be tweaked to keep this flyer happy and maybe even gain some revenue.

Now I will just speak briefly about my own patterns, which I know are not the norm, but that is what focus groups are for. I fly 100,000 miles per year—just about all for pleasure (but I too might find I have to take that last minute C trip on business to Asia). I do not need to fly. It is all discretionary and I fly (mostly quick hops across the pond—or long weekends across the dateline) because I hope to have a good time, both over there and on the way there.

Last weekend I took a real short hop to DC and stayed at a Starwood. I paid $200 and was upgraded to a $1,000 suite. Now with your mentality, you might say the hotel could not afford to give me a room worth that much, but if they did not, I probably would have stayed elsewhere (I could have gotten a cheaper room in a top hotel), but I hoped for an upgrade (subject to availability) and got it. The room would have gone empty if I had not stayed there and stayed elsewhere or not even made the trip. But part of the fun of the weekend is getting pampered—incremental revenue at the margin for the hotel. WIN-WIN!

I am planning a long weekend trip to Istanbul the beginning of the year. Starwood does not have a property there so I must admit that I am having fun picking another hotel to stay at (I am partial to Leading Hotels of the World as they treat me well too). There are all these great local properties and some of the world’s great chains, many having great rates. But I must admit if there were a Starwood there I would be there. I mean I must make my 25 stays per year to stay Platinum and I do like being Platinum—WIN-WIN.

In fact why am I going to Istanbul? Well I made my reservation when I thought being Platinum on CO was worth the bother and it was worth racking up the miles. It turns out I was wrong. It turns out that some of the other trips I am contemplating are $500 Q fares to Europe. Well, that just does not satisfy the bean counters in Houston (although it will at continental.com through 2004, subject to change). And an upgrade---I can hear the laughs at CO. Well maybe the value of the seat to a business passenger is $5,000 but if it flies empty or with a NonRev, it is worthless to the airline. Giving it to me on a standby basis would just keep me coming back for more. WIN-WIN.

With the new rules, I may either abandon frequent flyer programs or go for mid-level status on both UA/AA, or just fly less. With OneWorld and Star Alliance, I may not get upgrades either, but I will have many more destinations open to me than the CO/NW/KL/DL route map and can just choose the lowest fare and best schedule or Orbitz. Neutral for me—LOSE for Continental.

I just got an email about a great fare to Moscow and Reykjavik on Icelandair. Before the new rules, I would have ruled out Icelandair, but now I will think about it. In fact, one of the reasons I have never been to Iceland is that it is not on the CO Partner route map. WIN for me—LOSE for CO.

Another thing that does not show up on the CO bean counter radar screen when evaluating my travel patterns is that I have flown friends/family on CO to help them get status or so they could fly with me (and this applies internationally at fares of over $1,000). Now if my loyalty is lost, so is that business—Neutral for me—LOSE for CO.

Now, as they say your mileage might vary, but if CO talked to frequent flyers and did not have this myopic mindset about how much they could “potentially” sell an empty seat for, maybe they would have come up with a WIN-WIN situation.

Frankly there are things CO could have done which might have both made me happy and increased my spend on CO. Instead the way they did it, I am more likely to flee.

It looks like a WN-WN situation. Or maybe I will just stay in NY and enjoy one of our fabulous restaurants—where they recognize loyal customers and treat them very well.

[This message has been edited by Nevsky (edited 09-20-2003).]

Dick Ginkowski Sep 20, 2003 12:52 am

Venk wrote: "As a first step, we have instituted changes to reduce the elite qualifying miles for lower fares as this "currency" has the biggest impact on our costs for providing future benefits."

This comment alone is utterly ridiculous and without support. As I've mentioned many times, at worst elite benefits (in the sense of those now targeted for modification) are revenue neutral and, at best, allow for potential profit.

Priority checkin? Revenue neutral (and more folks are checking in online or at kiosks.)

Priority boarding? Revenue neutral.

Upgrades? As I have mentioned many times, the F seat that went unsold was reallocated to a frequent flyer. Again, essentially revenue neutral EXCEPT that this freed up the seat previously held by that passenger for resale at the last minute to an airline's most profitable passenger: the walk-up.

jimc_usa Sep 20, 2003 4:50 am

I am sitting on the fence reading all the posts and and being amazed that no one has talked about the whole "picture"!
For those of us who read FlyerTalk everyday and realise that every airline probably has someone dedicated to do the same reading, does it not make sense that we who plan MR's just to gain the most mileage for the cheapest price, should not be suprised that it didn't last.

dallasflyer Sep 20, 2003 6:17 am

CO looks at their bottom line and as a for profit company they decide that by changing their FF program that they can increase revenue. In a vacuum this may actually work. However, we are in a competetive environment and when you compare CO's FFP to others in the U.S. they are way behind AA, US, and UA, also NW unless they change also. The consumer will pick the better deal. So unless AA, US, or UA is totally inconvienent for a customer they are going to change. So if you raise the revenue by 10%-20% per customer, but lose 20% of your customers, you are going to get killed. This is just an example and I have no idea what the real effect will be. Personally I don't think they will raise much revenue and I think that they are going to lose a lot of customers.

------------------
dallasflyer

Bonehead Sep 20, 2003 7:00 am


<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by jimc_usa:
...does it not make sense that we who plan MR's just to gain the most mileage for the cheapest price, should not be suprised that it didn't last.</font>
This is a key point that has been missed (or ignored). Put yourself in the place of the CO executive charged with maintaining (or achieving) profitability, and realizing that many (not all, certainly, and most likely not most)of your premium seats are going to those who connive to fly ultracheap segment/mileage runs.


The changes appear to take aim especially at the segment runners, but certainly severly curtail the ability of many of us to do $200 runs for, say, 6500 miles. On the other hand, I note that I can still do a MR to Asia and get 22000 miles for $900-$1000, so my options have not been eliminated (yet...).

These changes may seem a tad draconian at first, but as I strive to see things from the other side, I do see some sense in them. Those of us who already pay a bit extra (and believe me, there have been times that I've paid $100 more to fly CO as opposed to Frontier in order to get my precious FC seat) will likely figure out a way to maintain our status.

I considered going back to AA (former Plat), but on a DEN-IAH trip I would need 6 500-mile upgrades @ $40 per...$240 out of my pocket AND a connection in DFW AND a possible RJ DFW-IAH. No thanks...CO works much better for me.

The people that will be affected the most are those who have no control over which fare they pay...perhaps on some routings (the higher-mile ones?) y'all could do as I have done and pop for the extra $$$$ (if it's kept reasonable, which I've already implored Kellner to do). A ridiculous suggestion to many of you perhaps, but at least an option.

Thanks for your time.

venk Sep 20, 2003 7:37 am

It is not easy being the devil's advocate without resorting to prevarication and market-speak but I will try...


<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by NJDavid:
While we have tried to maintain the benefits provided to our customers based on past relationship (as reflected by their elite status) as much as we can in the current climate, we have to use our philosophy to match the "currency" we provide for future benefits with the price paid for each ticket.

Not gonna cut it. They now overtly attempt to reduce the distribution of their "currency" for lower priced tickets, while all along they've made the extortion of "easy pass" the only option for non Saturday night stay trips, and nearly the only option everywhere else. Their covert tremendous reduction in the value of their "currency" shows that this overt act is merely to coerce flyers into paying more than they have to.
</font>
These are two related issues here. The redeemable value of the "currency" accumulated by you the past in terms of benefits and the amount of "currency" provided to you at each current transaction. Both are parameters that affect our cost structure in a similar way at the end.

One difference is that the latter is also the means by which we provide differentiation in the various categories of fares. It does not make sense for a premium cabin customer to get the same "currency" as a discount coach customer because the margins we realize from them are so different. This is why we have fine-tuned our program to increase the spread in "currency" between various categories of pricing.

We realize that other airlines do it differently but in the end it is the relative spread that matters and whether we are competitive in the value provided for that "currency" within that spread. Some have complained that we could have kept the "currency" the same for low fares and increased it for higher fares. That, in reality, only leads to "currency" inflation since we are not in a position to increase the costs asociated with the program with increased currency float.

This brings us to the value of "currency" provided. Here, all we can say is that we intend to be competitive with the rest of the industry as much as our financial strength allows us but we may not be able to please all the people given the structure of the industry. In a free market, our customers will need to look at the total value provided our airline and compare it against the competition to decide which suits them better.


<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">
At one extreme, the low fares demanded due to competition with low cost carriers requires us to reduce the services afforded for such tickets to the minimum provided for these carriers - basic and safe transport from point A to point B. At the other extreme, the high fares realizable from our best customers who demand high comfort and levels of service in return deserve the very best we can provide them.



Unfortunately, this again masks the cold truth that there IS NO DIFFERENCE between the services afforded the traveler who purchased seat 8A two months ago at $300 and 8C yesterday at $3000.
</font>
That is indeed a problem. While we have to take some responsibility for this pricing model, it is not up to CO alone to change it. The whole industry needs to take a step back and look at it to see what maks sense for our customers. We are not sure how this can happen in the current climate.

It will not be as simple as bringing the high fares down because the margins we operate in does not permit it without leading to bankruptcy. But the current climate of overcapacity does not allow us to increase the lower fares even marginally to compensate. So we have a stalemate in our pricing structure.

Meanwhile, we have to deal with that reality of that situation and the changes we have instituted and future changes we intend to make are indeed designed to differentiate the value provided for that difference in price in terms of immediate benefits for that flight (priority services, seating arrangement, cabin upgrades, etc.) as well as future benefits provided with our OnePass "currency".

NJDavid Sep 20, 2003 7:47 am


<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by venk:
That is indeed a problem. While we have to take some responsibility for this pricing model, it is not up to CO alone to change it. The whole industry needs to take a step back and look at it to see what maks sense for our customers. We are not sure how this can happen in the current climate.</font>

When CO's parter, America West did just that, CO vindictively dumped them (despite losing valuable network destinations and club access) and openly routed for their demise.

Sorry venk, noble effort (to engage the customers in a way that CO steadfastly refuses) but you can't defend the indefensible. Sometimes the answer is just telling the devil to go back to he11.




[This message has been edited by NJDavid (edited 09-20-2003).]

venk Sep 20, 2003 7:49 am


<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by channa:
Announce the change, explain the rationale as venk did, that's all that people want to hear. They'll empathize or take action accordingly.</font>
We will certainly evaluate our marketing techniques and staffing to see why one of our ex-customers can articulate our position better to our customers than we can.

http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/wink.gif

venk Sep 20, 2003 7:53 am


<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by tcook052:
"The travel experience and benefits that customers get for their tickets and the cost structures of the major airlines were decided/designed in the era when the pricing and margins were much higher."

Does this mean it's the pax fault the market has changed and the CO has been unwilling or unable to keep up with the times? Or that pax are expecting way too much from airline's these days and must scale back their expectations?
</font>
It is certainly not our customer's fault that the market has changed. CO has been trying to come to grips with the changing market place but it is a complicated environment. Meanwhile, we believe customers do need to match their expectations with the fares they are paying which in real dollars is much less than what they were paying last decade. Unlike the PC industry, the labor-intensive airline industry cannot decrease prices and increase performance and services at the same time.

venk Sep 20, 2003 8:01 am


<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by Nevsky:
Some of the same objectives could have been accomplished in a much more customer friendly way that might have had the dual benefit of increasing customer satisfaction (or, as Hippocrates might say, in a way that does no harm (or at least minimizes it) and increases revenue.
</font>
If we knew what that silver bullet is, we would have implemented it in a flash. We seriously don't believe there is such a silver bullet in terms of affecting pricing vs. benefits.

There is certainly some validity in the observation that our current method of communication with our customers is counter-productive to deliver our changes good or bad. We have been told over and over again that being straight with our customers and making them our partners in these difficult times rather than trying to manipulate them is a better way to manage this.

You do have to understand that this is a much different way of doing business than we are used to and it takes time for us to learn and adopt it. Not all of our management is comfortable with it as yet but that is one of the challenges we will have to face going forward.

jefro Sep 20, 2003 8:18 am

NEVSKY --- excellent post!
I am planning a business trip to Asia at the end of October ---- I would never have thought of going outside to CO family ---
I found some Asian travel agents in NY that are offering great fares to Asia on a variety of carriers --(Business Class) on Asia -- JAL --- ANA --- NW (is the lowest)
and with the "new" FF plan at CO I leaning toward taking Asiana and enjoying a "new" experience --- great fare / new airline / and is it a loss to CO?

kb1992 Sep 20, 2003 10:03 am

What is the lowest Business class fare on NW to Asia?

I am curious because NW's web site's price is about $6,000 for WBC in December/January which of course I can not afford.



<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by jefro:
NEVSKY --- excellent post!
I am planning a business trip to Asia at the end of October ---- I would never have thought of going outside to CO family ---
I found some Asian travel agents in NY that are offering great fares to Asia on a variety of carriers --(Business Class) on Asia -- JAL --- ANA --- NW (is the lowest)
and with the "new" FF plan at CO I leaning toward taking Asiana and enjoying a "new" experience --- great fare / new airline / and is it a loss to CO?
</font>

Nevsky Sep 20, 2003 2:57 pm


<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by jefro:

...
I found some Asian travel agents in NY that are offering great fares to Asia on a variety of carriers --(Business Class) on Asia -- JAL --- ANA --- NW (is the lowest)
and with the "new" FF plan at CO I leaning toward taking Asiana and enjoying a "new" experience --- great fare / new airline / and is it a loss to CO?
</font>
I must say, I never thought of using a consolidator before (although I have made inquiries), but now I might actually use them.

The fact is the currency is not worth as much anymore (although I have gotten some great things from Continental and other airlines—I will never forget the Concorde) and is being devalued regularly. For me the miles have not been as important as the step or two (or three) below VIP treatment I sometimes get and, of course, upgrades. Upgrades make a weekend trip fun, be it at a hotel or an airline and they encourage me to make discretionary, frequent trips that fill up seats and rooms that would in many cases otherwise be empty.

I have millions of miles "in the bank" and I guess I should just start withdrawing as the miles are like the currency of some third world country. The ironic thing is one of the reasons I have not drawn down my balances in the past is that I was constantly racking up miles to stay Platinum to get the benefits that are being devalued faster than the miles. Now that status is not only harder to achieve, but frankly not that valuable when you get there, I guess I should just try to use up my miles (although I understand that too is a hassle). A WIN (for me)-LOSE (for Continental) situation. Continental would be much better off if I bought a ticket (whether or not I used miles for an upgrade) at any price than used positive space for free.

As I said earlier, I could have suggested ways to make me spend more (but not outrageously more—not going to happen) and still kept me happy WIN-WIN.

I admit my flying patterns may be an exception, but I really do not think the recent CO changes, especially the implementation thereof, will accomplish the intended objectives or at least do so in an efficient way (i.e., increasing revenue without significant damage to customer morale).

I am not sure if Continental is still one of the best places to work, but it is going down the list of best “places” to fly. Customer morale is down (at least for many frequent flyers). Especially important, frequent flyers have more loyalty than the occasional traveler. We stay around for the benefits. Among infrequent flyers I know, domestically JetBlue is all I hear, especially in NY. Many times they do not even look at other airlines for pricing. It is like Wal-Mart, they just assume everyday low pricing, even if not always the case for JetBlue. For me, it has taken a huge difference in price to pull me away from CO to other airlines, but, alas, my marginal revenue is apparently just not important enough for CO now.

The execs in Houston are overly impressed with their “Product” and need a reality check.

Dick Ginkowski Sep 20, 2003 3:45 pm

I have to say that Venk isn't a devil's advocate -- he is the devil's advocate!

SEA_Tigger Sep 20, 2003 5:21 pm

One of the problems with CO's changes - especially now that they are back-tracking on it in terms of allowing full benefits for fares booked on the web (which directly benefits mileage runners and leisure travellers) - is that the mid to high-fare travellers would not have seen large benefits until 2005.

If I was a Silver or Gold and knew I would not be able to renew, I'd fly CO only when I could get in First (and as a Gold, that seems to be a pretty good chance). Afterall, even if WN or B6 is cheaper, neither offers First, so why not continue to take advantage of it where possible (even if you need to spend a little more).

So the high-fare Silvers and non-elites will still not see a First Class seat, so they will question "where's the benefit?" They may not wait until 2005 to reap these "new" benefits (once all the low-fare elites are gone).

Such is the problem with mileage-based elite programs. Intelligent and savvy people will always be able to take advantage of the programs. And the airlines need the incremental revenue low-fare passengers bring in, otherwise they'd move to a revenue-based FF program. Unfortunately, there are not enough high-revenue pax to sustain six large airlines, and maybe not enough to sustain even one (which would attract low-fare flyers only on a flight-by-flight basis, resulting in wildly fluctuating loads per flight).

Nevsky Sep 20, 2003 10:06 pm


<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2"> Unfortunately, there are not enough high-revenue pax to sustain six large airlines....[/B]</font>
Actually there are enough high-revenue passengers to support hundreds of "airlines"--charter airlines and corporate jets. Many times, especially if more than one person is traveling, a charter is reasonably competitive in terms of price and beats all the scheduled airlines in terms of convenience and scheduling. That is another significant source of competition for the scheduled airlines.


venk Sep 21, 2003 4:47 pm


<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by Dick Ginkowski:
I have to say that Venk isn't a devil's advocate -- he is the devil's advocate!</font>
I think a compliment was intended but I am not sure that is something to be proud of. http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/wink.gif

OttoGraham Sep 21, 2003 6:09 pm

Deleted

[This message has been edited by OttoGraham (edited 09-22-2003).]

ClueByFour Sep 21, 2003 7:53 pm


<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by OttoGraham:
CO's Satan that is usually resident on this board is serving a timeout for misbehavior, I am reliably informed.</font>
If that is indeed the case, I'd let it go without inflammatory statements like this one.

Sooner or later, references like this will attract both your friendly local moderator and the board owner, I'm quite sure.

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Don't feed the trolls.

thezipper Sep 21, 2003 9:33 pm

venk I commend you for giving us the "other side" to the equation. Given that Larry, Mark and I'm sure even Gordo know that FT exists... why wouldnt one go to a good test audience (moderators of said forum) and get an idea/consensus of the proposed reforms. I've had conversations with Russ Hinckley, Julia Moore, William Sanders, etc. that have been constructive criticism toward their programs. One of my suggestions made it as a perk, whether it was me or my reinforcement, they listened. Had Continental floated some of the ideas to the moderators of this forum for example, I think they might have realized that yes... changes need to be made to the program, but their initial concept had flaws. Personally I don't see a problem with an EUA being Plat &gt; Y-Fare Pax &gt; Gold &gt; Silver. Hey, might tork off a few Golds, but you have still kept the integrity of the program for your top tier elites and have provided for those who have paid the high walk-up fare. Wow! I just offered a suggestion that might have negated 12 pages of angst had they just asked! CO OP needs to utilize the members of FT. We may not have all the solutions, but can provide an endless number of suggestions.

ironmanjt Sep 22, 2003 7:32 am


<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by Bonehead:
Put yourself in the place of the CO executive charged with maintaining (or achieving) profitability, and realizing that many (not all, certainly, and most likely not most)of your premium seats are going to those who connive to fly ultracheap segment/mileage runs.</font>
I totally disagree with your argument here. There are a few hundred of these folks on flyertalk. If NW/CO have several thousand platinums each, I don't think milage runners are the typical elite flyer....

avek00 Sep 22, 2003 11:14 am

Geez, I take a few days off to study for the LSAT and the rumor mill goes wild!

Anyways, I appreciate venk's elquent arguments explaining why CO has taken the actions that it did. Like DL, CO has developed a new definition of what a "best customer" really is - it's not necessarily the person who FLIES the most, but rather the customer who SPENDS the most that is CO's bread-and-butter.

The text of the Larry Kellner email (I forget who posted it) suggests that unlike DL, CO is projecting a DECREASE in the overall number of Elites due to the changes. This is a good thing, as it means that CO can more consistently offer benefits to its true best customers. The big spenders will have an easier time receiving upgrades and priority treatment because the throng of riff-raff Elites will either drop down in status or otherwise receive benefits commensurate with the revenue that they are giving to the airline.

DL and CO might have been the first US airlines to make wholesale changes to Elite qualification, but they will bertainly NOt be the last. The other major airlines will eventually follow the lead of DL/CO and the other major world airlines by more closely correlating revenue to benefits -- they have no choice, unless they want to get swamped with unprofitable low-yield Elites.

------------------
Continental Airlines - An airline people acutally PAY to fly with...

[This message has been edited by avek00 (edited 09-22-2003).]

NJDavid Sep 22, 2003 11:20 am


<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by avek00:
Geez, I take a few days off to study for the LSAT and the rumor mill goes wild!

</font>
You'll make a good lawyer. You never let facts stand in your way. http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/biggrin.gif

Delta's passenger counts are dropping, and the airline, the nation's third largest, continues to suffer losses of hundreds of millions of dollars each quarter

http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/Forum20/HTML/009089.html


If, as avek00 says:

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">other major airlines will eventually follow the lead of DL/CO </font>
they will also follow them to less passengers, less revenue, and eventually, chapter 7. As AA and UA are getting tons of calls this week from defecting CO elites, I doubt they'll ever pull such a stupid move.

[This message has been edited by NJDavid (edited 09-22-2003).]

OttoGraham Sep 22, 2003 11:43 am

Deleted because it ain't worth it.

[This message has been edited by OttoGraham (edited 09-22-2003).]

ozstamps Sep 22, 2003 11:57 am


<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by avek00:

Geez, I take a few days off to study for the LSAT and the rumor mill goes wild!

</font>

ru·mor ( P ) Pronunciation Key (rmr)
noun.

A piece of unverified information of uncertain origin usually spread by word of mouth.

Unverified information received from another; hearsay.


I do not believe you understand the Dictionary definition of "RUMOR" avek00.

For your possible interest I have typed it here for you above.

Perhaps try looking up the dictionary definition of "FACT".

I am led to believe that concise Facts are what were reported above ... or are you happy to deny that here?



venk Sep 22, 2003 12:02 pm

Continuing with my temporary assignment...


<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by avek00:
Like DL, CO has developed a new definition of what a "best customer" really is - it's not necessarily the person who FLIES the most, but rather the customer who SPENDS the most that is CO's bread-and-butter.
</font>
While we appreciate attempts by individuals to support CO's changes, we cannot allow statements such as the above that misrepresent us go by. It is irresponsible statements such as above that has led to a negative opinion on CO and its management and serve only to incite parts of our customer base.

The phrase "best customer" makes no sense to us or any airline given the large customer base we have and the large variety of customers we have all of whom we need. Within each category of customers such as premium business travelers, leisure travelers, etc., there are certainly some relationships that are more valuable than others but no metric can exist across such categories to compare what is essentially apples and oranges.

Any customer that occupies a seat that would have gone unsold otherwise is a good customer. There is no advantage to labeling customers to our own detriment.

As we have explained above, the philosophy we are using is that the benefits accrued for each transaction are commensurate with the past relationship and the current value of the transaction. The past relationship may happen for a number of reasons including frequency of flying and the types of fares paid.

Just as some of our customers will see an increase in benefits, some will see a decrease in the benefits as a result of our changes as opposed to a rather homegeneous treatment that existed earlier. This has no reflection on the value we place on that relationship but is rather an attempt to rationalize the level of products/service provided to the price incurred for ANY of our customers.

Nevsky Sep 22, 2003 2:23 pm


<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by venk:
... This has no reflection on the value we place on that relationship but is rather an attempt to rationalize the level of products/service provided to the price incurred for ANY of our customers.</font>

That is the whole fallacy with the CO model. If I decide not to fly because I am not satisfied with CO’s program, and a seat that would otherwise be occupied (even an upgraded BusinessFirst seat) goes vacant, CO loses, as long as I would have covered my marginal costs.

More attention needs to be paid to marginal costs and marginal revenues.

If CO entices me on the plane a few more times per year (and the flight is not sold out), CO wins regardless of how inexpensive my fare is and regardless of how valuable in their eyes the seat may be.

I must add though that to consider a $500 Q fare to Europe as worth half the elite credits is the type of thinking that will leave both the BusinessFirst seat and/or the economy seat that I might otherwise occupy, vacant. Make it attractive for me to fly and make me feel good about CO and I will increase your business at the margin. (Of course, this has to be done in such a way that someone else will not trade down and revenue will be lost. It is a balancing act but I do not think CO is playing it well.)

Dick Ginkowski Sep 22, 2003 2:41 pm


<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by venk:
I think a compliment was intended but I am not sure that is something to be proud of. http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/wink.gif</font>

At least I didn't say that you are the devil!

That distinction falls to Gordo himself...who doesn't have the balls and/or integrity to face us.


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