EWR-BCN and upgrades
 

I have done some searches on read up on these Continental upgrades and trip to Europe - please excuse me if this is a repeat but didn't see anything about all my questions.
I use Continental occassionally but have no status with them. We are trying to plan a trip and need to get from EWR to BCN. Of course, no rewards avail except the 100,000 per ticket. (this is for end of May/June 2002 travel)
I can buy a coach ticket for $850, or pay $1034 and 80,000 for the waiting list for the two tickets in First Class.
Any guesses by you veterans as to what our chances are of actually getting the upgrades, seeing how we are not elite members? I assume this is a 767 and wondering if it is just better to pay the $850 with another airline for more room in coach for my 6'5" husband. Do we stand a decent shot at First Class?
Thanks!

Checking on ITN, it appears that CO has flights to MAD with connections to BCN using Air Europa. It seems that there are currently lots of available seats for upgrades on some random flights I picked out--but remember you would have to pay the higher upgradeable fare at this time. If you book in April, you may be able to get a lower fare, but then have to pay a $300 or $400 fee on each ticket to upgrade.
Now to your odds of getting those seats....its a question of how many elites get in front of you for those upgradeable seats. Since in any event, you won't know if you've made the upgrade until 30 days or less before your flight.
PS-- if you are elite with any other carrier, you may get comped to a similar elite level by CO which could improve your chances on the upgrade list.

I guess that was part of what I am wondering. Any recent travellers on this flight? Wondering how the loads are since
this Air Europa is a new partner and trying to get this off the ground.

I haven't flown the MAD-BCN segment (but it's short anyway, so coach would probably be plenty tolerable). I did fly EWR-MAD however. This was Thursday outbound and Monday return. In both cases, C load appeared to be a rather pathetic 30%. In the second C cabin, there were no more than 4 people on both flights.

Based on this, you should be able to upgrade without a problem. However, you have two things working against you. First, you're flying closer to summer when loads (at least in Y) should pick up. Second, they are switching this route from a 777 to a 767 (in April). Smaller plane, fewer C seats.

One plus of the plane change is they are going to 7 days a week rather than the current 5. I still think your odds are really good, but it is still a lottery.