If we're talking about what is "fair," there are reasonable arguments on both sides. Some Plats who find it inconvenient to call in for upgrades feel that, with EUA, CO is merely rewarding their best customers. Point well taken!

OTOH, Silvers and Golds, certainly not shabby customers when compared to the average flyer, and also responsible for a large part of CO's total revenue, feel that they've been cut out of the upgrade pie, and that their higher than average volume of business is no longer appreciated by CO. Again, another point well taken!

Since both "fairness" arguments have merit, let's look at the business equation. Since upgrades are used by the airlines to instill and maintain loyalty among their best customers, it makes sense to analyze whether EUA gains more business for CO than it loses. I believe that in a year or so, if EUA isn't eliminated, or at least given a major overhaul, it will result in a net loss of business for CO.

First of all, what we are talking about is dividing up a very limited pie. There are only so many premium seats, and they can't be readily expanded without seriously harming the bottom line. Eastern tried that, and we all know what happened to them!

So, any upgrade seats we give to someone, necessarily have to be taken away from someone else. What EUA has done is take some of the BC/FC seats away from highly motivated Silvers and Golds, who wanted the upgrades badly enough to make repeated calls for them, and give them to Plats who either couldn't or wouldn't call in for them previously.

Now let's look at the equation. Jeff, as a Plat who's happy with EUA, will you be giving CO more business next year because of what is for you an "improvement" in perks? Conversely, if CO had maintained the old "call-in" system of upgrading, would you be giving less business to CO next year. I would hazard to guess that your answer would be a resounding "no" in both cases!

The fact is that the vast majority of Plats don't feel that strongly about what is for them a marginal improvement in perks to substantially alter their pattern of business with CO. Furthermore, many of these Plats are "captive flyers"...those who fly out of a CO hub, and would prolly fly CO under any circumstances.

OTOH, let's look at the equation from the Silver/Gold's perspective. First of all, most of CO's lower/middle tier elite flyers fly out of airports other than IAH, EWR, or CLE. These flyers each give 25-74K miles of business to CO, not because they have no choice, but because they clearly prefer CO. And they clearly prefer CO because of the free upgrades, not because of the priority luggage tags or early boarding. Furthermore, the Silver/Golds who made frequent call-ins for upgrades, and have been hurt the most by EUA, were especially highly motivated for the upgrades.

CO may be the nation's #5 airline, but it isn't #1 or #2! For flyers based out of cities other than CO's three hubs, UA and AA have more flights to more places. And their flights are frequently more direct, and occasionally cheaper.

True, CO is superior to either airline in a number of ways...quality of service, attitude of employees, age of aircraft, on-time record, etc. But, for most frequent flyers, the most important motivation they have to fly CO is the free upgrades. Take them away, and you've taken away their main reason for living with a smaller choice of flights, and flights that require a connection in IAH vs. a non-stop.

But, a free upgrade isn't any good if you can't get it. And CO has one of the stingiest coach/economy seat pitch intervals (31") in the industry. If one has to fly Cattle Class, better to have a larger choice of flights, more direct flights, and an extra couple of inches of pitch. Thus, with no significant increase in Platinum business, yet a large drop-off in lower/middle tier elite business, I believe EUA will, over time, hurt CO's bottom line.

At this point, I believe most lower/middle tier CO elites are taking a wait and see attitude. After all, we do prefer CO to most other airlines for all of the above reasons. And we would prefer to stick with CO! So, we'll continue to hope that CO will take notice of this major dissatisfaction, and take some corrective action.

But, I do believe that if by this time next year, lower/middle tier elites find that they are getting no or few upgrades, I think you'll find a large number of them drifting away from CO.

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"An upgrade, an upgrade! My kingdom for an upgrade!"

SemiElite:

Score report? http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/wink.gif

A nice analysis--something few and far between these days. We'll have to see. Not sure I quite agree with the premise about Plats vs. G/Ss being located at Hubs vs. non, thus the Plats having to fly CO, so more inelasticity with Plat. Think it's more evenly distributed, but not entirely. Do think that Plats consider the inconvenience a bit more. Would weigh the trade off as better for Plats, less for silvers, with Golds roughly the same (of course, there is disagreement here). If Plats are more elastic in demand for CO (as i think) then there may have been some inconvenience of sitting in the back despite calling/calling when the silver snagged the upgrade at first dibs. As I've said key is not the calling as much, but the getting passed over with a late release.

But, even if you're right and silvers are impacted more...how much impact is required to switch them to a carrier where upgrades are not complimentary--maybe NW but not sure if the estimated reduction would put below an AA/UA type program; this may be key in your analysis. Yes, 31 inch seat pitch makes one think much about upgrades.

Report (so I can post here) http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/smile.gif
16/16 for EUA.

Jeff, we may be disagree on EUA, but I sure like your analysis. It's intelligent, and well thought out. But I believe, I've addressed your very legitimate concerns.

As far as the Plats being concentrated at hubs, I cannot offer statistal proof, although I'm sure a dedicated researcher could find it.

My hypothesis is based on logic. If you fly out of IAH, you are more than somewhat limited to CO. CO gives you the flights, DL doesn't...grin. So, if you're a road warrior, you fly with the airline that offers the flights...in this case, CO. And, if you're a serious road warrior, travelling over 100K a year, you're going to get pretty much the same benefits flying any carrier...UA, AA, CO, DL, NW, etc. ANY of those airlines will treat you like a king! So, what airline you fly is not determined by the program, but by what airline produces the most flights out of your airport.

As far as the inconvenience, I think that is a high priority for all elites, less so for occasional flyers.

But, I think Plats are far more inelastic! Silvers/Golds are far more elastic...that is my basic premise! EUA is no biggie for most Plats...but the loss of upgrades for many of those 75K Silvers and 25K Golds are a major biggie for them...and they are elastic...and they will take a hike!!!

Now, as to your question as to how much impact is required to switch them? Dunno...it's an individual matter. Varies with each person. But, with me, I guess it would prolly be an upgrade level less than 50-75%.

I will be flying to Sydney, Australia quite often in the next few years (inlaws there), and I can't fly there direct on CO...gotta fly via Cairns, but I can fly direct via UA...so I have a fairly low threshold. But I guess a married couple who flies to SYD twice a year, in addition to vacation flights, would be pretty attractive to most airlines. So, in my case, it wouldn't take much to switch me to UA...pricier domestic upgrades, but more liberal intl. upgrades...and direct flights to Sydney.

But remember, UA, like most airlines, will always be more than happy to comp a CO Gold to UA PremEx!



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"An upgrade, an upgrade! My kingdom for an upgrade!"

Very good points Semielite I agree 100%!

And then there are 100% free unlimited non-upgrades for Silvers (and Golds maybe) because Plats can go from 95 to 99%
Golds maybe from 80% to 70% and Silvers from

25% to 0% !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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Viele Grüße

Oliver

Boomer: Several CO agents have remarked that they're selling (for cash) a lot more BF/FC tickets lately. If so, that would seriously affect how many BF/FC seats will be held back by yield management.

Got no idea why, maybe the UA fiasco from last summer is driving road warriors to CO???

Germanflyer: Actually, I don't think Silvers will go "25% to 0%."

Silvers are generally very aware that they're at the bottom of the Elite pecking order. So those who seriously want the upgrade have known for years that strategy is necessary in order to get it. That means avoiding hub to hub travel, high demand time travel, aircraft with small FC cabins (737s), and agressive phone-in techniques. Using the above techniques, many Silvers have approached 95% to 100% in upgrades.

What EUA has done is to remove a Silver's ability to play strategy in order to overcome his/her low status on the Elite pecking order. I would think that an agressive Silver's upgrade batting average would be reduced from 95% to 20%...a clearly unacceptable percentage, and one that would prompt most Silvers to look for another airline...particularly one that offered more flights, more destinations, more non-stop flights, and more seat pitch in Cattle Class...and even more upgrades, even if they had to buy "coupons" or "stickers."



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"An upgrade, an upgrade! My kingdom for an upgrade!"

A colleague of mine (silver) just remarked to me that he is 1 for 6 since the EUA...Thank god I'll qualify for PLAT next week.

Well, so far as a Silver, I went 6 for 6 pre-EUA, and now 0 for 2 post-EUA. And based upon everything I've been reading here, this is typical for Silvers since EUA.

My guess it that if CO doesn't do something about this situation quickly, it will soon have a reputation as an airline that rewards Plats liberally, but treats Silvers and Golds like Aunt Minnie who flies twice a year...at Thanksgiving and Christmas.

Maybe CO will get the message when they lose the Freddie next year...along with approx. 100,000 former Silvers and Golds!

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"An upgrade, an upgrade! My kingdom for an upgrade!"

aunt_minnie_at_christmas@denycontinentalthefreddie .com

http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/smile.gif

As a Continental Platinum I am 8 for 8 on EUA's. I have even managed to get a travel companion upgraded on 4 segments. My luck cannot hold on much longer. I should make Platinum again for the coming year, so that will help I hope.

I am a Silver Elite who is less than thrilled with this whole new automation. I do a lot of domestic travel and will make Gold this month, but as a Silver the last few months have been rough. I wouldn't mind if I lost my seat to someone with a higher elite class, but more often than not I'm not even in the computer. This has happened to me several times over the last month (and by several I mean five or six). I call at midnight to make sure I'm in the computer. They tell me I'm not. They enter my onepass number and tell my the upgrade will happen automatically. I go to the airport, check-in and not onl;y did I not get the upgrade, but they have no record of my onepass number. I mean this has been a trend. One time I got there and was upgraded at the counter, which was nice, but it was suppossed to be automatic, right?

I just don't trust this system AND my upgrade averag has gone WAY down. It really doesn't pay for me to go out of my way and fly extra legs if I can't upgrade. I might have to go back to flying a straight line! http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/frown.gif

LouCap,

Welcome to flyer talk. Hope you enjoy your time here. You will learn a great deal from the folks who frequent these threads.
Even though my success rate for upgrades under the new system have been good, you are correct that there seem to be some flaws in the system. A friend of mine who works for Continental keeps telling me to be patient and give them time to "get it right". I will be anxious to see what "time" will do. I guess for now, we just have to hang in there. Again, welcome aboard.

just got back from the weekend...

4 for 4

(2 segments were on NW)

AND - I got my companion upgraded on all but the 1st segment (however, I gave my upgrade up on segment #1 to sit with my beloved).

the computer sent emails when it should have... it appears to be working better, possibly?

cpd

I'm Platinum, 20 for 20.

Weird thing is failure to get e-mail on return portion of two trips.

I'm NORTHWEST Silver

5 for 6 on Continental's EUA
6 for 6 on Northwest's EUA

The one I missed out was upgraded at the gate.

Here's a new one for me. My wife and I had traveled to LGA via CLE for the Thanksgiving Holiday. We upgraded for the LONG segment from Tampa to Cleveland using my silver card and a coupon for her. On the next leg I tried to do the same at the counter, since there were only two people in First due to weather delays and late connections. The agent refused to upgrade her for the short flight because the coupon was "non transferable". No mind you, I've used the same type of coupon for her twice before with no problems. Was the agent right? Yes. Was I happy, no. Particularly since I have 46,000 miles now and will be a gold in two weeks. Still, it wouldn't have killed them to do it. http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/mad.gif

On the return trip, I called to upgrade the day of departure, figuring that since my wife and I were together the EUA would have skipped me. I was planning on using miles to upgrade my wife when the elite agent told me that I had been upgraded the night before. I was shocked! This is the first EUA upgrade I've gotten...ever. I asked if we could upgrade my wife. NO. Then could I go back to my seat next to her (we've only been married 11 months, so I still like her http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/wink.gif ) which I booked four months ago? NO. Why? The airport had control of the seats. I hang up, hit redial, speak to another agent. No Problem. Amazing.

THEN, the inbound plane for first leg is late. We will miss our connection. The agent at LGA gets us on a flight out of Newark several hours later. They have us limoed over. Not only does this guy get us on a direct flight from Newark to Tampa, but he upgrades my wife and I just beacuse I asked if there were any seats in first. heck, I was going to use miles for my wife but he did it just to keep us happy. Now that's customer service .

I know they're only people, but the range of service I get from Continental really varies from excellent to insulting.

Just wanted to share the joy.

[This message has been edited by LouCap (edited 11-28-2000).]