BF Upgrade Question.
 

Hey guys,

I'm waitlisted for a BF upgrade on the 17th GVA - EWR. Its a 764.
I was checking today the seat map and it only shows 3 BF seats available... so it doesn't really look like its gonna happen.

Out of curiosity I decided to check the price of those tickets, same flight, date, etc. On the reservations screen it came up with "9 tickets available at this price" (It was around 5k).

My question is, how many seats are available... 9, or 3?

There are 9 tickets available for sale.
There are currently only 3 seats available for pre-assignment.

So today, If I was the only person in the waitlist (yeah... right). My chances would be 9/35?

No, you really can't think about it like that.
They'll probably sell some of those 9 seats in the next two weeks. Others may cancel before then too.

Also, you have no idea where you might be on the waitlist. All higher elites may have already cleared, so you could be #1, or you could be #5 or #10.

Assuming you are #1, your "chances" depend on how many of those 9 seats CO will sell. If they only sell 8 of them, then your upgrade chances are 100% if you're #1 on the waitlist. Unfortunately the # of seats they'll sell is a big unknown. CO has models that try to predict this based on historical trends, but even they aren't 100% accurate.

Yeah I understand that they can sell them, etc. I was just clarifying the number of available seats. Thanks man.

If it makes you feel better my upgrade finally cleared today on a ticket I purchased back in May from CDG-IAH, and am I'm a Silver! However, I don't know how competitive that route is compared to yours.

My upgrade for the same route but onthe 19th just cleared and i can tell you (fly this alot) that Co likes to keep some seats empty for last minute trips, im guessing this is since its Geneva (UN,Banks)

Teh Guardian of Teh Crystal Ball, East Bloc shows your upgrade clearing in the near future!

lets hope teh guardian of teh crystal ball, east bloc is right ^