chiph

We've all observed it and ostensibly understand the reasoning. However, sometimes it seems a little ridiculous. For example, I'm on a flight on Thursday morning (<2 days from now) that has 14 seats open in F and only 9 people seated in the elite area. Yes, several rows of "OOO-OOO" on the pda site. It's literally wide open.

It seems counter to the whole notion that pplat UGs will start to clear at 6 days. Why not just say the entire thing happens at the 36h mark and is run by status? I don't understand why they bother with the whole 6, 5, 3, and 1 day thing if it rarely works.

This is not a complaint about the likelihood of upgrades -- I have a very high success rate and am completely satisfied. I just don't understand the whole "EUA window" notion when seats are held back for so long now.

TWA Fan 1

It's the old principle of the carrot and the stick. They need something to entice you ("the carrot") and they do this with the lure of "unlimited free space-available upgrades." Of course, then, once they've hooked you, they apply the kibosh ("the stick"). Since the availability of inventory is all basically a fiction, the man behind the green curtain can do whatever he wants to make the most money for himself and the company.

If they were more straightforward about it, the "carrot" part of the game would not be nearly as effective...

grteyes2

From numerous comment's from FT have learned that what you see as "empty seats" in F or C usually does not reflect actual number available. Several times have thought no UG to F, etc only to find out it cleared after midnight but within 6-15 hrs before flight.

TWA Fan 1

Right, but that doesn't change the OP's comment about EUA not clearing at 6 days out, etc.

chiph

I'm looking at:

chiph

I understand trying to monetize the seats and the problem of "unlimited space available." However, when the flight is literally wide open and you have 14 F seats for sale on a Thursday morning flight, you'd be insane to think you're going to sell even half of those within 48 hours.

TWA Fan 1

Of course, but if you're revenue management and you know the potential upgrader isn't going anywhere, why not just hold out till the last second, just in case?

I think at least some of this has to do with the buy-up upgrade program, which most passengers use at the OLCI window.

elll

On my IAH-SEA trip last weekend I received EUA at the 5 day mark - which was quite surprising on that route.

I have gotten several this year at the 5 day mark. But there have also been alot that I've received at the 24:05 hour mark. It doesn't matter to me when they come in, as long as I receive the EUA. And I have only missed 5 or 6 upgrades this year to date. So I won't complain.

radonc1

Many have said this lots of times. If you want assurance of a first class seat, either buy an F sear or an upgradeable Y seat. Have you tried to book a B or M upgrade seat to see if they are available? If they are not, then CO has a high expectation of being able to sell those seats as F seats. This happens to me often, especially on the LAX-CLE red-eye where B seats book into the back of the bus. (They usually still get the EUA eventually, but not at 6,5 or 3 days before the flight).
I have seen many a flight from CLE-LAS have 14 open seats 1 week out to 7 seats 4 days out to 1 seat 2 days out and sold out at flight time. It is CO's job to make money on these seats, and as far as I am concerned, as long as they don't sell them for less than what I would have paid when I booked the reservation, I am satisfied with the system.

Upgrades are bonuses for loyalty, not rights.

chiph

I get the impression you didn't read my post before replying.

I said I was happy with my upgrade rate and the complaint was about the notion that you could upgrade reliably at 6 or 5 days -- why not just change it to 36h if that's the deal.

Also, it's not my first time flying, so I'm familiar with how the number of available seats decreases closer to departure. :-)

Catbert10

The suspicious part of my mind thinks that the holding back of large numbers of seats from EUA occurs when there are large numbers of Gold and Silver elites who have bought high priced fares (H,K, etc) compared to Plats who are on cheap fares. CO has the expectation that the relatively cheap buy-up for the Golds and Silvers will result in CO being able to monetize the upgrade by selling it to the Golds and Silvers, rather than give it away for free to the Plats.

sbm12

Because when I do get the 5-day upgrade I'm happy earlier than when I get the 3-day upgrade. Tonight's trip (SEA-EWR on an S fare) upgraded at 4 days out. I've had a few recently that were 5-days. It happens sometimes. Why take that away?

From NYC

I don't think I'm letting anything in particular out of the bag, since Scott, CO Insider didn't have to tell me this while we were riding buses during last weeks' SMD2. CO does hold a few seats for last-minute purchasers of F seats, who were getting frozen out because of EUA. He only mentioned that they were holding up to 3 seats for this. However, he also told me that about 1/2 of the folks buying the upgrades were Plats. They were a little surprised by this as well.

I'm sure that revenue management watches all this and decides to hold off on EUA's a little longer in certain situations to see who'll bite and buy. I'm not one of those, as I've been lucky/early enough to get an exit row seat, and I'm happy to wait for an unpaid upgrade if I'm there, and I'm at about 80% with it happening at various time frames.

If folks want their EUA's early on, stop buying the upgrades. Othewise, youz takes your chances.

cova

I am guessing this is the case - but at check in time - CO recomputes the delta between your fare and the M-up fare for Platinums only. M-up may not have been available when the ticket was purchased plus CO will/can drop the price of a M fare ticket when people check in.

So I suspect that those Platinums buying the upgrade are at a midlevel fare and the difference to M ( which has now opened up for M-up) is not that high. Plats are taking it to guarantee the upgrade.

chiph

I think that's a very smart idea & no problem with that. Holding back 2 or 3 seats on a popular flight is a good idea.

I just am confused by 14 seats held back at 36h with fewer than a dozen people in elite seating. :-)