EWR-SFO EUA question
 

I know that EWR-SFO route is one of the hardest EUA routes even for Plats but wondering if any regular plats on this route have had better recent EUA / battlefield results. Specifically interested in Sunday afternoon and Friday morning flights.

I have only ever had one EUA on this route in my life (plus a number of B ups but those don't count): I believe it was on a Tuesday early morning flight from SFO-EWR. All other times and directions, I've been 10-20 (and sometimes 30) people deep on the waitlist with F full.

I recently was EUA'd (along with about 15 others) on the 7:30pm-ish EWR-SFO on a Friday as a Platinum on a W fare. All of the earlier flights were full in F a few days out and the list of "cleared" was quite short. I flew somewhat off hours and had no trouble clearing; flying peak times is a whole different story.

I wish EWR-SJC would return to the schedule. Back when I was a regular flyer out of the bay area, I don't think I ever missed an u/g on this route, even as a silver. Then again, back then (2000-2004) SFO wasn't nearly as difficult either.

Ugh, what a disaster this route is.

I did get one EUA on a Weds morning flight back to EWR earlier this year. To be fair, though, I haven't given it much of a chance since I've been B/Y-up'ing or buying full F for most of the last two years on this route due to the rarity of EUAs.

I have to say, though, your chances look pretty slim on those route, IMO. Sunday you get all the folks scrambling to make the last of their weekends and get there for Monday morning. Friday, you have all the folks trying to get back home for the weekend. Can't recall a recent Friday flight, but the Sunday afternoon ones are typically packed.

Good luck!

I've had 18 flights so far this year between EWR and SFO. I offered miles on 8 flights, upgrading 4 of 8 for 50%. I hung tight waiting for the EUA on 10 flights, upgrading 7 of 10 for 70%. My base fares are best available, waiting for sales far in advance, as a Plat.

The 18 flights earned me 92,340 miles as a Plat. I "risked" 120,000 miles by waitlisting miles on 8 flights, but only spent 60,000 miles for the actual upgrades, still earning 32,340 miles net.

If one really cares about the upgrade, one should aim to break even on miles. By watching the waitlists, one get get a feeling for which flights to waitlist, and which flights to hang tight for the EAU. I'm happy with how I've gamed this. This is a zero-sum game, so I'm happy to offer this advice, but I don't wish to divulge the schedule I've settled upon.

Great responses everyone. Thanks. Wasn't really looking for hints at better times. I can figure some of that out. Just wondering what others were seeing at peak times.

I'm flying out tomorrow afternoon and back home Friday morning. So right now it looks like the 7am and 835am flights tomorrow actually have a good chance for an upgrade since there is no one left on the upgrade standby list and co.com still showing seats. I am thinking about maybe changing to one of those flights tomorrow if things are still looking good later this afternoon. I'm on the 4pm on an H fare and currently per co.com 4 seats left with B and higher availability though yesterday it was D and higher availability only.

On the way back on Friday 1115am there is actually an option right now for me to use miles for an upgrade or $208 to buy up to I guess M for an instant upgrade. I'm thinking about doing either of those, $208 isn't bad but I almost want to gamble and see what happens with EUA since I do have my exit row seat. As for burning 15K miles I know it's a good deal and that I'll be getting 10K+ for the flight and all but I'm really close to 145K miles and with not much travel planned losing that extra 5K miles will prolong getting to 145K and my international 1st redemption by at least 1-2 months. :)

I agree with this 100%, and typically play this 'game' with transcon flying. I would say my transcon upgrade rate with this technique has been about 50%, so it comes as a net loss of only 3000 or so RDM per average transcon trip (EWR-LAX = 11043 RDM with Plat and PP bonus, -15000 for 1 segment upgraded each trip).

Don't discount the fact that CO will deeply discount the F seats to encourage people to buy up to F. Last week I watched as 10+ people bought up to F on a IAH-PHL flight while I enjoyed my turkey dog and $4 DirecTV

How certain are you that they got those seats at a discount versus just a two-step transaction that added up to the same amount?

I think it's best to look at EUAs on this route in the same way one looks at international op ups. They are rare and should never be expected, but they are a nice surprise when they do.

Plats can frequently M-up on this route for $1000 r.t., so the seats are usually gone. CO wisely will push it into the M-up bucket before they'll let the seat go as an EUA on a $400 r.t. ticket.

Can't say one way or another. I think it is the two step transaction, but that's just speculation. I can't blame CO for trying to extract every last $ out of an F seat, I'm just giving the OP a heads up that what looks good for an EUA may not always be the case.

But you watched this happening over a few days or so right so it could have been people paying the difference or mile upgrades or something?

Last night there were less than 13 on the upgraded list on Sunday's CO448, don't recall the exact number but want to say ~5 or so. Right now there are 13 people showing on the upgraded list with 15 / 20 booked and no one currently on the upgrade standby list within the 24 hour window. It looks to me like most of those 13 were EUAd at the 13 hour window and there are no more plat/gold/silvers on the flight as they should be on the upgrade standby list. I would imagine that at this point anyone that checks in to this flight will get some sort of offer to F but anyone with status that gets on this flight will be put on the upgrade standby list and will have a good shot to be upgraded sometime before 7am tomorrow. At least that's how I am understanding this.

No, at T-24 there about 10 F seats open and I was #1 on the list. The "customers upgraded into first" number didn't change, and neither did my spot on the list (eventually slipped to 2), but the number of open F seats slowly dwindled. There was 1 battlefield. This is only a hunch, but I suspect that most of where the F seats went between T-24 and T-2 were to "buy up to Fs"