Would CO/UAL consider LAX-GUM service

 
Old May 3, 2010, 8:12 pm
  #16  
 
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But Guam is going to have an additional 70,000 people once the military, their families, and businesses needed to support them move from Okinawa, as is currently happening.
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Old May 3, 2010, 8:51 pm
  #17  
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Originally Posted by pacific832
Actually, the Philippines Air flights go first to Manila, then to LAX. http://www.philippineairlines.com/fl.../route_map.jsp. Odd that flightaware doesn't note that.

I'm pretty certain there are no current direct flights between GUM and LAX.
I did a mock booking and it said 1 stop GUM. I don't understand this either.
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Old May 3, 2010, 9:22 pm
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From my knowledge PR makes a technical stop in Guam only if needed (heavy) (ie most the time) and sometimes also in HNL and notifies you prior to take off. Sometimes it can go direct but rarely.

Return flights MNL to LAX are direct no stop over.

You are not booking LAX to GUM... you are just stopping for Fuel... You're not getting out unless you are technical and have to layover.

(flew this one time, LAX to MNL to BKK and return)
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Old May 3, 2010, 9:47 pm
  #19  
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Originally Posted by KosraeTV
From my knowledge PR makes a technical stop in Guam only if needed (heavy) (ie most the time) and sometimes also in HNL and notifies you prior to take off. Sometimes it can go direct but rarely.

Return flights MNL to LAX are direct no stop over.

You are not booking LAX to GUM... you are just stopping for Fuel... You're not getting out unless you are technical and have to layover.

(flew this one time, LAX to MNL to BKK and return)
What strange is it was a few hour layover. I can't figure this out. I wonder if its a cargo run.
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Old May 4, 2010, 7:09 pm
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Originally Posted by Euteanzoic7216
But Guam is going to have an additional 70,000 people once the military, their families, and businesses needed to support them move from Okinawa, as is currently happening.
Good point. Currently, Guam gets 1-1.3 million tourist visits a year (I'm not sure how many more ppl travel to Guam for business, or how many locals leave Guam on business/vacation trips). At it's peak, the buildup will bring 70,000 contract workers to island. However, they will almost all be coming from the Philippines; so, I would estimate that there may be short term increases in Manila-Guam flights.

The transfer of 8,000 Marines and their 16,000 dependents from Okinawa will happen over a course of 5 years, so I don't see that having much of an impact (particularly since they get free flights through military hops).

But, it should be noted that the estimate of 70,000 temporary contract workers is likely too high. The Draft Environmental Impact Study associated with the buildup was an utter disaster (receiving the Federal EPA's lowest possible grade), so it's quite likely that the timeline of the buildup will be spread out over an extra few years in order to lower the peak number of temporary contract workers. It's more likely that we'll see 30-40,000 temporary contract workers at the peak (just my guess, but I've heard similar numbers from both GovGuam and JGPO/DoD people), in order to reduce the strain on the local infrastructure.

Also, there will be an increase in private contractors flying b/w Guam and the States, but I don't think that this number will be significant enough to warrant additional flights.

Lastly, most everyone realizes the buildup is being pushed back a couple years. And, there's the final word coming from the Japanese government this month regarding the definitive plans for the Okinawa move (with the new President, there's been some tensions regarding whether Japan will follow through on the previous troop transfer agreement).

This was probably a bit more info than most people are interested in, but I figured it couldn't hurt to share. :-) FYI, I'm not military; just a concerned local citizen with some connections to info (but who doesn't have mucho connections on this tiny island, lol).

Last edited by pacific832; May 4, 2010 at 7:13 pm Reason: edited for grammar
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Old May 4, 2010, 7:35 pm
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I should clarify that the 70,000 aren't long-term support people, but rather, temporary Filipino workers who will build the base housing prior to the move of the military and their families. So, the 70,000 will be off-island by the time the families start moving in.

There is unlikely to be significant long-term support jobs associated with the presence of these 8,000 Marines. The numbers I've seen estimate the creation of 200 total new jobs on-base. There will probably be a small increase in off-base business (mostly bars, night clubs, etc), but I doubt it'll result in a huge influx of off-islanders looking for jobs... hell, there's plenty of unemployed people on-island right now looking for work.

However, while the influx of military wont directly necessitate an increase in flights, the raw materials needed for the buildup may (though most stuff will come through our Port).

Additionally, the GAA (Guam Airport Authority) is currently executing a long-planned expansion of the runway in an effort to attract more tourists/business. I've heard chat of hopefully attracting an EWR-GUM direct flight. The military buildup is cited as one reason why this runway expansion is needed, but the airport construction would have still happened with or without this buildup.
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Old May 4, 2010, 7:39 pm
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Originally Posted by pacific832
Good point. Currently, Guam gets 1-1.3 million tourist visits a year (I'm not sure how many more ppl travel to Guam for business, or how many locals leave Guam on business/vacation trips). At it's peak, the buildup will bring 70,000 contract workers to island. However, they will almost all be coming from the Philippines; so, I would estimate that there may be short term increases in Manila-Guam flights. .........
Your sources come from where?

70,000 is the expected overall population increase over the entire build up not at one time. New Employment for the build up only (temporary) is estimated at 30,000 with majority (20,000) being temporary construction jobs (for over the entire island, port, roads, electrical, everything not just base housing) and yes most would be Filipino. By changing the H-2 workers ruling Guam stands to lose a lot but these are only temporary workers.

Now granted for an island of 180,000 population adding 70,000 is going to put a big strain on everything from water, medical, land management etc... The military already owns about 1/3 of the island (controls it atleast) but they will only provide for those living on base. Gov Guam will have to feel the strain of the education / medical / welfare / police etc... But this is over time. Not at one shot.

Understand that citizens of Palau, FSM, RMI can enter / live / work in Guam freely. And Guam has already complained for years and years that they can't cope with these citizens. How Gov. Guam will handle this onslaught will be laughable. Majority of homeless in Guam are Chukese (part of the FSM). So there are big big issues for Gov Guam to deal with.

Now since this is an airline site... think what Won Pat will do... I've just been in a disagreement with Mary Torres who is sister of the governor and married to the chief justice and a political stooge who is "employed" by the Airport Authority. They can not even manage to get airport security to man the transit doors when planes land. This is one of the worst managed airports in the world, I can't imagine what they will do when a few more planes land.

After the recent go around with them my last trips through the transit doors were opened and manned which is a miracle after years of these issues. Due to the change in transit rules everyone must go through immigration even if you are sitting there for only 1 hour transit. The security and partitions they put up are just beautiful.

Last edited by KosraeTV; May 4, 2010 at 8:01 pm
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Old May 4, 2010, 7:47 pm
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Originally Posted by pacific832
but I doubt it'll result in a huge influx of off-islanders looking for jobs... hell, there's plenty of unemployed people on-island right now looking for work.
You are joking right? Every flight from Palau, FSM and RMI there are islanders coming in already waiting for this build up, have been going up there, and will continue to go up there. Anyone who can get the airfare is going up there now.

Let alone islanders, you don't think every filipino and their mother's second cousin aunties favorite adopted neighbor is trying to get into Guam right now? What is the population of Filipino or people from filipino heritage up there now? 30% or greater my last report.

Not trying to make offense to anyone, I employ islanders and filipino's. But you have a mad scramble to get into Guam for a few years of work, hopefully citizenship for those that need it, then off to the mainland USA. And I don't blame anyone. If I was living in a squatters camp in Quezon City with training in something I'd do whatever I could to get to Guam or USA or Dubai or other place also. The #1 export from PI is workers. And with the economy in the Pacific Islands I'd get off island also most likely...

But your comment about not having a huge influx of off island workers is totally off base and incorrect.
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Old May 4, 2010, 8:27 pm
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Yikes! You're right! I spoke poorly. I really appreciate your insights Kosrae TV, and I definitely didn't mean to offend.

I should have worded my response more carefully. When I said off-islanders, I was referring to State-siders. I was busy thinking of the impact of the buildup on LAx-GUM flights, and highlighting that most workers will be coming from the Asia/Pacific region. Basically, I was trying to say that while Manila-Guam flights will likely increase, I would be surprised to see LAX-GUM routes be created (or LAX-HNL-GUM routes be increased significantly).

I completely agree that there will be a significant influx of people from the Pacific and the Philippines. I just don't see enough State-siders coming to impact flights in that direction (the DEIS estimates total long-term Civilian Military Workers to be 1836, and their dependents to be 1,745). There will certainly be an increase in off-island labor positions, but again, that'll attract regional workers more than Statesiders (who don't even know where our island is located).

In fact, I agree with nearly every word you wrote. I'd only add two small points:
  • Recently, it was decided that temporary workers will be housed off-base. This is hugely impactful, and GovGuam will feel the strain on utilities, medical, and welfare almost immediately following the influx of temporary workers. A 70k increase will impact a local hospital that's already lacking enough beds to meet current needs, not to mention the impact on an currently strained water, power, wastewater system.
  • I'm glad I'm not the only one aware of (and offended by) the rampant corruption up at Won Pat International. Don't get me started on the Airport Police.

Regarding my sources, I've read much of the DEIS (which was NOT fun), and sat in on a bunch of high-level GovGuam, JGPO, NAVFACPAC, NAVFACMAR, utilities, port, airport, contractors association, and local chamber of commerce meetings. This, actually, is probably a bad thing... lol... with all the contradictory info/estimates flying around, it's likely that the more meetings a person is privy to, the worse the information.

Again, I'm sorry if I offended you KosraeTV, and I definitely agree with your points (I should have been more precise with my wording). I'm new on these forums, and I'm very excited to be part of the community. :-)
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Old May 4, 2010, 8:32 pm
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Guam Build Up

Had to add this to our talks to provide some laughter.

If I was from 4th District of Georgia and was represented by Hank Johnson I'd be embarrassed. Heck any American should be embarrassed that they let someone like him hold office. Just a fine example of US Govt at work.

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/wash...son-guam-.html

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_1...67-503544.html

http://washingtonscene.thehill.com/i...er-and-capsize

But give the Military credit for holding it together and responding without dying laughing at the Congressman.
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Old May 4, 2010, 8:42 pm
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Originally Posted by pacific832
Yikes! You're right! I spoke poorly. I really appreciate your insights Kosrae TV, and I definitely didn't mean to offend.

I should have worded my response more carefully. When I said off-islanders, I was referring to State-siders. I was busy thinking of the impact of the buildup on LAx-GUM flights, and highlighting that most workers will be coming from the Asia/Pacific region. Basically, I was trying to say that while Manila-Guam flights will likely increase, I would be surprised to see LAX-GUM routes be created (or LAX-HNL-GUM routes be increased significantly).

I completely agree that there will be a significant influx of people from the Pacific and the Philippines. I just don't see enough State-siders coming to impact flights in that direction (the DEIS estimates total long-term Civilian Military Workers to be 1836, and their dependents to be 1,745). There will certainly be an increase in off-island labor positions, but again, that'll attract regional workers more than Statesiders (who don't even know where our island is located).

In fact, I agree with nearly every word you wrote. I'd only add two small points:
  • Recently, it was decided that temporary workers will be housed off-base. This is hugely impactful, and GovGuam will feel the strain on utilities, medical, and welfare almost immediately following the influx of temporary workers. A 70k increase will impact a local hospital that's already lacking enough beds to meet current needs, not to mention the impact on an currently strained water, power, wastewater system.
  • I'm glad I'm not the only one aware of (and offended by) the rampant corruption up at Won Pat International. Don't get me started on the Airport Police.

Regarding my sources, I've read much of the DEIS (which was NOT fun), and sat in on a bunch of high-level GovGuam, JGPO, NAVFACPAC, NAVFACMAR, utilities, port, airport, contractors association, and local chamber of commerce meetings. This, actually, is probably a bad thing... lol... with all the contradictory info/estimates flying around, it's likely that the more meetings a person is privy to, the worse the information.

Again, I'm sorry if I offended you KosraeTV, and I definitely agree with your points (I should have been more precise with my wording). I'm new on these forums, and I'm very excited to be part of the community. :-)
Didn't offend me at all, just trying to get the facts together as where I sit, from the side of a place that is shipping / training etc.. folks to go INTO Guam my meetings are a lot different. I've got meetings on just about the same places and more but from different folks most likely

I know the off base housing will happen and the Military will only be responsible for on base items. As such Gov Guam has huge issues. If it was not for the shipping lines getting the Gantry together the port would be in shambles and still might be. I still can't see the port handling the cargo. And the Airport Authority we can agree is a total mess.

Workers can come from state side but the contractors want to get the awarded contracts and want to use imported cheaper labor obviously not Unionized or US mainland labor. BUT... when the economy tanked many folks were looking to see what the build up was doing if anything as many folks were out of jobs. If the economy does not turn around you could see folks head out from the mainland for work.

The LAX GUM route was never meant for the temporary workers, but with the military there will be an increase in operations supporting the military coming from the USA mainland and it would / could feed into the Co Mike route system. So the LAX GUM flight was discussed when the order for the DreamLiner was placed.

Way back when... Co Mike requested Smith Street to look at using a direct to GUM flight from the mainland and it was determined that LAX would be the good position to depart from (way back when).

This route really did not have anything to do with the workers but more of the overall build up and then feed into the system.
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Old Oct 5, 2010, 6:30 am
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Plain and Simple

I will believe it when I see it.

The talks about GUM-LAX have been in effect for several years. While it is true that runway length was an issue, GAA have fixed it. This particular topic has been an overkill in CS. The biggest fear about opening GUM-LAX is that should this route open up, HNL's volume will drop. And to this very day, that is the response that CS management is replying with the same as it was several, several years ago, when we were flying 74's.

Also since someone else brought in the idea of an EWR flight, statistics show that there is not much incoming/outgoing traffic for EWR area. Most traffic into GUM is from the midwest and west coast USA. That route will be less than likely Only because NRT has both IAH and EWR flights. At one point it was an idea in our MGMT meetings with CS (FYI, former mgmt here) but when the numbers were pulled, it showed that an GUM-EWR would not benefit the company .CS's focus is on volume for the obvious reasons.
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Old Oct 5, 2010, 6:49 am
  #28  
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Originally Posted by xenon24
I will believe it when I see it.
Welcome to FlyerTalk!

Thanks for sharing a bit of the inside view on the topic.
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Old Oct 5, 2010, 9:19 am
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Any word on the re-branding of CO Mike? Will it be United Micronesia? Or, will it revert back to Air Micronesia? :-:
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Old Oct 5, 2010, 9:25 am
  #30  
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Originally Posted by theblakefish
Any word on the re-branding of CO Mike? Will it be United Micronesia? Or, will it revert back to Air Micronesia? :-:
I bet it just becomes United. They are already planning on rolling the operating certificate into CO's before combining the CO and UA certificates so that makes the most sense IMO.
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