EWR-SNA
 

I want to fly from EWR to SNA on April 15 and back on the 19th. What is the chance of upgrades to first class as a Plat member on this route (I understand that I will know it 5 days before departure...). Is it a route on which many people actually buy their first class tickets or should I buy a regular ticket and hope for an upgrade?
Do they upgrade 5 days before if there is seats in first or do they need to have specific fares class available?

I believe as a platinum you will know 5 days in advance

its a heavy business route which means that usually the F cabin is bought and there are many Elites in the upgrade list.

I would at least look at purchasing a Y, B, M, H fare to move you higher on the upgrade list. (The Y and B will get you the upgrade regularly)

Good luck.

I believe this is unlikely to be definitive. ;)

As a platinum you have a chance for an upgrade at 5 days out. It might come through later, too. But that route is paid F (or Y/B/M-Up) heavy and EUAs are not particularly common. This issue is exacerbated by the fact that the route is mostly served by 73Gs with the smaller F cabin.

Chances of an upgrade out of SNA, particularly to EWR, are slim as a Plat. Maybe one or two last minute upgrades - but better to be on a higher fare. And as pointed out Y/B/M will give it to you - but this route may restrict B/M ups.

Last time I flew out of SNA last Oct to IAH - four of us got gate upgrades, sat in our F seats, and ordered our drinks. The agent can down and kicked us back to coach. A late arriving family of 4 (two young daughters) that had reservations arrived at the last minute and claimed their seats.

I find this route can be full of young children in F. On the reference flight there was another family of 4 (with two young daughters in F).

With $30M houses not uncommon in Orange County/Newport Beach/Laguna Beach - families buy F.

If you really want F, I would buy it with a M or B fare and use the elite to get an automatic upgrade at ticketing. Being that this transcon flight is on the 737-700 with only 3 rows, 12 seats in F is most likely to be full with little or no upgrades. IMO