FlyerTalk scoops the world with news report!
May 28, 2006, 3:58 am
#1
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FlyerTalk scoops the world with news report!
Note: The first 24 posts on this thread concern events from May 28. I bumped it today (July 12) when the shooting began again. Discussion of the most recent incidents begin on post # 25.
Early this morning, I was on the "Who will be the next..." thread when Monitor asked me what I was doing up so early. I gave the following reply:
As it turned out, it was actually one side firing. Terrorists in South Lebanon were shooting katuysha rockets into Northern Israel. What I thought were shots being fired from near me were exactly that -- the katuyshas were launched from very close to my home (but on the other side of the border).
They did not pass over me, so I didn't hear the sound of the rockets in air, but landed about 10 kilometers away. The explosions they made on impact were what I thought were shots being made from a distance.
A more complete report can be found in this article in the Jerusalem Post but while the newspaper has full details (including Israel's retaliatory raids on terrorist camps) the first report came to you on Omni.
Perhaps it is time for a new Omni slogan:
We may not get it right, but we get it fast!
Early this morning, I was on the "Who will be the next..." thread when Monitor asked me what I was doing up so early. I gave the following reply:
Originally Posted by Dovster
Actually, I would normally get up at 4:30 but I was awakened by a rather loud exchange of artillery fire.
I don't know if it was an actual fire fight across the border (which would be rather unusual) or if the Israeli Army was engaged in some kind of training (which would be even more unusual at this time of night) but there were at least two sites firing -- one close to me and one a bit further away.
I haven't received an SMS security alert so I presume that it can't be too serious and the firing stopped about 30 minutes ago.
I don't know if it was an actual fire fight across the border (which would be rather unusual) or if the Israeli Army was engaged in some kind of training (which would be even more unusual at this time of night) but there were at least two sites firing -- one close to me and one a bit further away.
I haven't received an SMS security alert so I presume that it can't be too serious and the firing stopped about 30 minutes ago.
They did not pass over me, so I didn't hear the sound of the rockets in air, but landed about 10 kilometers away. The explosions they made on impact were what I thought were shots being made from a distance.
A more complete report can be found in this article in the Jerusalem Post but while the newspaper has full details (including Israel's retaliatory raids on terrorist camps) the first report came to you on Omni.
Perhaps it is time for a new Omni slogan:
We may not get it right, but we get it fast!
Last edited by Dovster; Jul 12, 2006 at 2:47 pm
May 28, 2006, 6:01 am
#2
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Originally Posted by Dovster
....
We may not get it right, but we get it fast!
We may not get it right, but we get it fast!
May 28, 2006, 6:10 am
#3
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Israelis and Palestinians shooting at each other is news?
I would think that a day without them trying to kill each other would be news.
I would think that a day without them trying to kill each other would be news.
May 28, 2006, 6:15 am
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Sounds more like p****d off Lebanese people rather than p****d off Palestinians in this case. The beauty of that part of the world lies in the number of people who are really quite angry.
May 28, 2006, 6:18 am
#5
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Lebanese are not Palestinians.
Moreover, the situation is potentially much more dangerous -- for the entire region -- than the Palestinian intifada.
Hizbollah, which has been the only group to fire into Israel, is a proxy agent of Syria (to a great degree) and Israel has long said that it holds Syria responsible for Hizbollah's actions.
Attacks such as these could easily lead to a war.
Moreover, the situation is potentially much more dangerous -- for the entire region -- than the Palestinian intifada.
Hizbollah, which has been the only group to fire into Israel, is a proxy agent of Syria (to a great degree) and Israel has long said that it holds Syria responsible for Hizbollah's actions.
Attacks such as these could easily lead to a war.
May 28, 2006, 6:26 am
#6
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It seems like the violence never ends. Israel can continue to appease its enemies forever but I doubt there will ever be peace until one side completely kills off the other side. I think Israel should have kept every square inch of land it occupied. The world does not understand that there will be no peace until every Jew is dead. Even then, the Muslims will fight amongst themselves like they have since the beginning of Islam.
Must be frustrating but I hope Lebanon does not end up at war with Israel again. I really want to visit Beruit someday.
Glad you are safe this morning, Dovster.
Must be frustrating but I hope Lebanon does not end up at war with Israel again. I really want to visit Beruit someday.
Glad you are safe this morning, Dovster.
May 28, 2006, 6:43 am
#7
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Actually, it is afternoon here now -- almost 12 hours exactly since this morning's shootings.
I just posted the following in the "Who will be the next..." thread.
"All of northern Israel is now on the highest possible alert. If Monitor is reading this post, he will remember the "Northern Road" which we drove on when he came to my kibbutz after the TLV Meet in November. That road is closed to all traffic except military vehicles.
(snip)
PS: While I was writing the above there was a second series of shots and this time I can hear both the launchings and the impact -- and both of them are quite a bit closer. I expect to get an SMS message any moment warning me to stay in my house's shelter. As I don't have a computer cable in there, I think I will pass on it."
As I wrote that last paragraph, I did get the SMS message, but it is not quite as strong as I had expected: "Area on high alert -- remain in your houses".
I just posted the following in the "Who will be the next..." thread.
"All of northern Israel is now on the highest possible alert. If Monitor is reading this post, he will remember the "Northern Road" which we drove on when he came to my kibbutz after the TLV Meet in November. That road is closed to all traffic except military vehicles.
(snip)
PS: While I was writing the above there was a second series of shots and this time I can hear both the launchings and the impact -- and both of them are quite a bit closer. I expect to get an SMS message any moment warning me to stay in my house's shelter. As I don't have a computer cable in there, I think I will pass on it."
As I wrote that last paragraph, I did get the SMS message, but it is not quite as strong as I had expected: "Area on high alert -- remain in your houses".
May 28, 2006, 7:09 am
#8
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Okay, now things have really gotten out of hand!
The shooting is continuing and my ex, who doesn't have a bomb shelter in her house, just showed up at my front door to stay in mine.
There is a limit to what one can be expected to endure even in times of crisis and having Dementia (and her German Shepherd) stay in my house goes beyond that limit!
The shooting is continuing and my ex, who doesn't have a bomb shelter in her house, just showed up at my front door to stay in mine.
There is a limit to what one can be expected to endure even in times of crisis and having Dementia (and her German Shepherd) stay in my house goes beyond that limit!
May 28, 2006, 7:23 am
#9
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Originally Posted by Dovster
There is a limit to what one can be expected to endure even in times of crisis and having Dementia (and her German Shepherd) stay in my house goes beyond that limit!
over this statement. Stay safe and let us know how the situation plays out.
May 28, 2006, 7:32 am
#10
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Originally Posted by Cholula
Dov, I know this isn’t a humorous situation but I couldn’t help a over this statement.
over this statement.Apparently, our local, friendly, terrorists were aiming closer to our kibbutz. I say "were" because about five minutes ago the sounds of the firing changed completely and we received SMS messages telling us that the "IDF is firing at Hizbollah sites."
In the meantime, Dementia is huddled on the floor of the shelter (the bed is covered with a million things belonging to my kids -- like my son's bar bells) and I am about to take a quick walk to the kibbutz shop (less than 1 minute by foot) to see if they are open and, if so, to get some chocolate ice cream.
May 28, 2006, 7:49 am
#12
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Originally Posted by Kibison
That article refers to the earlier strikes mentioned in the article I linked to in the OP.
Right now, there are literally 10's of booms every minute. Most of them, I believe, are IDF bombing of Hizbollah but every so often there is what is clearly a katyusha flying overhead followed by a rather loud explosion.
My regular telephone does not work in the shelter (the walls block its reception) so Dementia is busying running up my mobile phone bill by calling everybody in her family to let them know how scared she is.
I am certain that they find this very comforting.
May 28, 2006, 7:53 am
#13
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My biggest fear is that the rockets' red glare, the bombs bursting in air, will give proof through the night that Dementia is still there!
May 28, 2006, 9:27 am
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And Analise was fretting over a few alligators in Florida!
Stay safe, Dov (from the danger outside and in).
Stay safe, Dov (from the danger outside and in).
May 28, 2006, 9:31 am
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Originally Posted by pbiflyer
And Analise was fretting over a few alligators in Florida!
Stay safe, Dov (from the danger outside and in).
Stay safe, Dov (from the danger outside and in).
We are still, however, being told to stay in our homes.
May 28, 2006, 11:52 am
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According to the beeb, the UN has brokered a cease fire:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/mid...st/5024482.stm
I wonder how long that will last?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/mid...st/5024482.stm
I wonder how long that will last?
May 28, 2006, 12:08 pm
#17
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I wouldn't be surprised if it lasted several months. This is not the first time there has been an exchange of fire like this, although it has been several years since it was on such a widespread scale.
I am finding it interesting how the various news media are reporting it.
The BBC reported it with about two sentences which made it seem like only military targets were hit by either side.
CNN had a slightly longer report and on its website is saying "Around 3 p.m. (8 a.m. ET), Hezbollah fighters began firing Katyusha rockets, mortars and machine guns into several Israeli towns and villages."
(That timing coincides with when I started this thread.)
The Jerusalem Post did not name the areas which were hit but Israel's Channel 2 television listed them, and included my kibbutz (Yiron) and our neighbors of Avivim and Dovev.
It is true that Yiron was hit but not in any populated area -- only in our apple fields.
I am finding it interesting how the various news media are reporting it.
The BBC reported it with about two sentences which made it seem like only military targets were hit by either side.
CNN had a slightly longer report and on its website is saying "Around 3 p.m. (8 a.m. ET), Hezbollah fighters began firing Katyusha rockets, mortars and machine guns into several Israeli towns and villages."
(That timing coincides with when I started this thread.)
The Jerusalem Post did not name the areas which were hit but Israel's Channel 2 television listed them, and included my kibbutz (Yiron) and our neighbors of Avivim and Dovev.
It is true that Yiron was hit but not in any populated area -- only in our apple fields.
May 28, 2006, 12:24 pm
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Stay safe Dov.
(Complete nonsequiter, but one you might find amusing...I just sent an email to family and friends announcing the birth of our son this morning. Within 3 minutes I then called family in Gedera that I know doesn't have email, and they answered the phone Mazal Tov (congratulations) because someone else in Israel had already called them....at which time I realized, if I don't start calling people over here in the US immediately, the Israeli phone tree is going to spill the beans before I have a chance.)
(Complete nonsequiter, but one you might find amusing...I just sent an email to family and friends announcing the birth of our son this morning. Within 3 minutes I then called family in Gedera that I know doesn't have email, and they answered the phone Mazal Tov (congratulations) because someone else in Israel had already called them....at which time I realized, if I don't start calling people over here in the US immediately, the Israeli phone tree is going to spill the beans before I have a chance.)
May 28, 2006, 12:32 pm
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Mazel Tov Jakebeth. Congrats on the birth of your son. Hope mom and babe are doing well
May 28, 2006, 6:56 pm
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Congrats, Jakebeth. Of course, this is not the first I had heard of your son's birth.
My daughter called me to tell me...she heard it from the guy who runs the felafel stand in Kiryat Gat.
Dov
My daughter called me to tell me...she heard it from the guy who runs the felafel stand in Kiryat Gat.
Dov
May 28, 2006, 9:31 pm
#21
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Originally Posted by Dovster
It appears now to be over. There has been no shooting for a while, the television news announced that there has been a ceasefire, and Dementia has returned to her house.
We are still, however, being told to stay in our homes.
We are still, however, being told to stay in our homes.
May 28, 2006, 11:23 pm
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Originally Posted by Dovster
Congrats, Jakebeth. Of course, this is not the first I had heard of your son's birth.
My daughter called me to tell me...she heard it from the guy who runs the felafel stand in Kiryat Gat.
Dov
My daughter called me to tell me...she heard it from the guy who runs the felafel stand in Kiryat Gat.
Dov
That's all the funnier given that I know the Gedera folks through a wonderful family from where else?....Kiryat Gat. They, of course, were the last to know about baby Jakebeth, as they're currenty vacationing in...Chicago.
May 29, 2006, 12:40 am
#23
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Originally Posted by GoldFlyer
So you get custody of the dog?
May 29, 2006, 3:57 am
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Originally Posted by Jakebeth
Stay safe Dov.
(Complete nonsequiter, but one you might find amusing...I just sent an email to family and friends announcing the birth of our son this morning. Within 3 minutes I then called family in Gedera that I know doesn't have email, and they answered the phone Mazal Tov (congratulations) because someone else in Israel had already called them....at which time I realized, if I don't start calling people over here in the US immediately, the Israeli phone tree is going to spill the beans before I have a chance.)
(Complete nonsequiter, but one you might find amusing...I just sent an email to family and friends announcing the birth of our son this morning. Within 3 minutes I then called family in Gedera that I know doesn't have email, and they answered the phone Mazal Tov (congratulations) because someone else in Israel had already called them....at which time I realized, if I don't start calling people over here in the US immediately, the Israeli phone tree is going to spill the beans before I have a chance.)
Jul 12, 2006, 12:53 am
#25
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Same story today:
Within the last few minutes eight Katuysha rockets were shot in my general direction (they sounded like they were very close).
I have a feeling that you are going to be seeing more about this (and Israel's inevitable reaction) on the news very soon.
Earlier this week, I was very happy to bring my daughter back to the kibbutz. She had just finished college near the Gaza Strip and there had been a number of Kassam rockets being fired in her area.
Now, she is experiencing Katuyshas being shot from Lebanon.
(The Army just sent us SMSs telling us to go to our bomb shelters. It was followed by a second SMS telling us that they are now shooting at Hizbollah outposts.)
No news as to whether my ex and her dog will be coming to my house.
Within the last few minutes eight Katuysha rockets were shot in my general direction (they sounded like they were very close).
I have a feeling that you are going to be seeing more about this (and Israel's inevitable reaction) on the news very soon.
Earlier this week, I was very happy to bring my daughter back to the kibbutz. She had just finished college near the Gaza Strip and there had been a number of Kassam rockets being fired in her area.
Now, she is experiencing Katuyshas being shot from Lebanon.
(The Army just sent us SMSs telling us to go to our bomb shelters. It was followed by a second SMS telling us that they are now shooting at Hizbollah outposts.)
No news as to whether my ex and her dog will be coming to my house.
Jul 12, 2006, 1:20 am
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Stay safe!
What's Hizbollah's excuse for firing rockets this time? As if there has to be one
What's Hizbollah's excuse for firing rockets this time? As if there has to be one
Jul 12, 2006, 1:25 am
#27
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Originally Posted by nfc
Stay safe!
What's Hizbollah's excuse for firing rockets this time? As if there has to be one
What's Hizbollah's excuse for firing rockets this time? As if there has to be one
I got back from Italy on July 4 and put a big American flag in front of my house to celebrate Independence Day. It is still up there and we are close enough to the Lebanese border that it can be seen by Hizbollah with a decent pair of binoculars.
I hope they are not using it as an aiming point!
Jul 12, 2006, 1:47 am
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Sounds like you are living quite a dangerous life out there in your Kibbutz, Dovster. I hope the attacks won't get you hurt, or any of your family and friends. I wonder if/how/when this will ever come to an end.
Merci for your reports mon cher ! Stay safe.
Merci for your reports mon cher ! Stay safe.
Jul 12, 2006, 1:51 am
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I can think of a few things in Arabic that I'd love to put on a sign for Hizbollah to see
Oh! and I look forward to reading the UN condemnation of this attack on Israel
Oh! and I look forward to reading the UN condemnation of this attack on Israel
Originally Posted by Dovster
It's too early for any reason to be given. Right now, they are too busy trying to avoid Israeli return fire.
I got back from Italy on July 4 and put a big American flag in front of my house to celebrate Independence Day. It is still up there and we are close enough to the Lebanese border that it can be seen by Hizbollah with a decent pair of binoculars.
I hope they are not using it as an aiming point!
I got back from Italy on July 4 and put a big American flag in front of my house to celebrate Independence Day. It is still up there and we are close enough to the Lebanese border that it can be seen by Hizbollah with a decent pair of binoculars.
I hope they are not using it as an aiming point!
Jul 12, 2006, 2:16 am
#30
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Apparently, Hizbollah launched the attacks all along the border (I could only hear what was happening near my own home) usings both mortars and rockets.
Its purpose was to serve as a diversion during which time it entered Israel and kidnapped two Israeli soldiers serving on the border.
Israel is now involved in a number of retaliatory actions (as far as I know, they involve shelling and air attacks but no ground forces).
Given the situation in Gaza after the rocket attacks on Israel and the kidnapping of one soldier by Hamas, it is very possible that South Lebanon will soon be facing a similar situation.
This would be tragic for the people living there, most of whom have no desire for a war with Israel, but on the other hand Israel can not allow its citizens to come under rocket fire and its soldiers to be kidnapped.
Moreover, as Hizbollah operates only with the cooperation/permission of Syria the potential for a much wider-spread conflict can't be ignored.
BEYFlyer and I have a long-standing agreement to meet for drinks somewhere along the border as soon as our respective countries make that possible. Sadly, it seems like today's events have pushed back that meeting even further.
Its purpose was to serve as a diversion during which time it entered Israel and kidnapped two Israeli soldiers serving on the border.
Israel is now involved in a number of retaliatory actions (as far as I know, they involve shelling and air attacks but no ground forces).
Given the situation in Gaza after the rocket attacks on Israel and the kidnapping of one soldier by Hamas, it is very possible that South Lebanon will soon be facing a similar situation.
This would be tragic for the people living there, most of whom have no desire for a war with Israel, but on the other hand Israel can not allow its citizens to come under rocket fire and its soldiers to be kidnapped.
Moreover, as Hizbollah operates only with the cooperation/permission of Syria the potential for a much wider-spread conflict can't be ignored.
BEYFlyer and I have a long-standing agreement to meet for drinks somewhere along the border as soon as our respective countries make that possible. Sadly, it seems like today's events have pushed back that meeting even further.
Jul 12, 2006, 2:30 am
#31
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Take care and stay safe. Sorry to hear of more violence over there, but that just seems to come with being in that part of the world, I guess. Please keep us posted so we know you're OK.
Jul 12, 2006, 3:06 am
#32
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I just love CNN's accuracy.
It is reporting that Hizbollah fired 2 rockets into Israel. I heard at least 8 in my area alone.
It is also reporting that the cross-border attacks are continuing right now. That is not true either. They stopped at least an hour ago.
At 7 pm, the Israeli government is going to hold a special meeting to determine what steps, if any, it will take.
It is reporting that Hizbollah fired 2 rockets into Israel. I heard at least 8 in my area alone.
It is also reporting that the cross-border attacks are continuing right now. That is not true either. They stopped at least an hour ago.
At 7 pm, the Israeli government is going to hold a special meeting to determine what steps, if any, it will take.
Jul 12, 2006, 3:25 am
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Originally Posted by Dovster
I just love CNN's accuracy.
It is reporting that Hizbollah fired 2 rockets into Israel. I heard at least 8 in my area alone.
It is also reporting that the cross-border attacks are continuing right now. That is not true either. They stopped at least an hour ago.
At 7 pm, the Israeli government is going to hold a special meeting to determine what steps, if any, it will take.
It is reporting that Hizbollah fired 2 rockets into Israel. I heard at least 8 in my area alone.
It is also reporting that the cross-border attacks are continuing right now. That is not true either. They stopped at least an hour ago.
At 7 pm, the Israeli government is going to hold a special meeting to determine what steps, if any, it will take.
Jul 12, 2006, 4:25 am
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Originally Posted by Dovster
Apparently, Hizbollah launched the attacks all along the border (I could only hear what was happening near my own home) usings both mortars and rockets.
Its purpose was to serve as a diversion during which time it entered Israel and kidnapped two Israeli soldiers serving on the border.
Israel is now involved in a number of retaliatory actions (as far as I know, they involve shelling and air attacks but no ground forces).
Given the situation in Gaza after the rocket attacks on Israel and the kidnapping of one soldier by Hamas, it is very possible that South Lebanon will soon be facing a similar situation.
This would be tragic for the people living there, most of whom have no desire for a war with Israel, but on the other hand Israel can not allow its citizens to come under rocket fire and its soldiers to be kidnapped.
Moreover, as Hizbollah operates only with the cooperation/permission of Syria the potential for a much wider-spread conflict can't be ignored.
BEYFlyer and I have a long-standing agreement to meet for drinks somewhere along the border as soon as our respective countries make that possible. Sadly, it seems like today's events have pushed back that meeting even further.
Its purpose was to serve as a diversion during which time it entered Israel and kidnapped two Israeli soldiers serving on the border.
Israel is now involved in a number of retaliatory actions (as far as I know, they involve shelling and air attacks but no ground forces).
Given the situation in Gaza after the rocket attacks on Israel and the kidnapping of one soldier by Hamas, it is very possible that South Lebanon will soon be facing a similar situation.
This would be tragic for the people living there, most of whom have no desire for a war with Israel, but on the other hand Israel can not allow its citizens to come under rocket fire and its soldiers to be kidnapped.
Moreover, as Hizbollah operates only with the cooperation/permission of Syria the potential for a much wider-spread conflict can't be ignored.
BEYFlyer and I have a long-standing agreement to meet for drinks somewhere along the border as soon as our respective countries make that possible. Sadly, it seems like today's events have pushed back that meeting even further.
Sad day for all of us... This just sickens me 
... Don't know what else to say... Stay safe Dovster and hope your ex doesn't make a return visit . God help us all. Excuse me while I go prepare for the wrath of the IDF...
Jul 12, 2006, 6:34 am
#35
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BEYFlyer, I certainly hope that your preparations prove not to be necessary and that Beirut is spared any military retaliation from Israel but I am not overly optimistic about that.
I am going to attempt to write the rest of this post as objectively as my journalistic experience allows me and try to put aside any personal feelings I might have as a resident of an area which came under fire this morning.
As I am writing this, I can hear constant firing. It all, however, sounds like outgoing artillery and bombs being dropped by the IDF north of my home (in Southern Lebanon).
According to Israeli television, IDF ground troops have moved into Lebanon in an attempt to find the two soldiers. The odds of them being successful, however, are small.
Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has declared the attacks an "act of war" and says he holds the government of Lebanon responsible for them.
Israeli Army reserve units have been put on alert for call up and a Government meeting is scheduled for 7 pm to determine what action to take.
Under international law, Lebanon is, indeed, responsible for Hizbollah's actions. It would not be had it taken all possible steps to keep Hizbollah from launching any attacks from within its borders, but it has taken no such steps at all. Indeed, Lebanon has repeatedly said that it is not the guarantor of Israel's safety.
On the other hand, it is very doubtful that the Lebanese government could take any effective steps even if it wanted to. The Lebanese military is very weak and I don't know what action it would be able to undertake against Hizbollah -- which certainly is stronger in the southern part of the country.
Moreover, if the Lebanese military were to attack Hizbollah, it would risk having Syria enter on Hizbollah's side. It would also risk re-igniting the tragic civil war the country endured for so long.
The worst possible scenario that Lebanon faces is Israel reacting with unrestrained attacks against the entire South and Beirut. The best that it can hope for is Israel restricting itself solely to Hizbollah targets in the South.
The probability is that Israel will do something in between. It will most likely concentrate on the South, and keep any ground troops in that area, but may well go after Lebanese infrastructure (such as electrical plants) in other parts of the country. This could easily result in widespread problems in Lebanon.
From an economic point of view, the situation is ripe with danger to both countries. The attacks came in the beginning of the tourist season and even the most restrained fighting, in a very restricted area, is liable to frighten off tourism to both Israel and Lebanon. As tourism is a major industry in both countries (albeit more important to the Lebanese economy than to Israel's) the impact is certain to be major.
Okay, that was my objective view. Now for my FlyerTalker view:
With a lot of luck, Israel will find the two soldiers quickly (and alive) and stop all further actions. Hizbollah will have gotten a good scare and not attack again. In the meantime, all the tourists going into Israel and Lebanon will be scared off, cancel their reservations, and you and I will be able to get airline tickets anywhere for pennies.
I am going to attempt to write the rest of this post as objectively as my journalistic experience allows me and try to put aside any personal feelings I might have as a resident of an area which came under fire this morning.
As I am writing this, I can hear constant firing. It all, however, sounds like outgoing artillery and bombs being dropped by the IDF north of my home (in Southern Lebanon).
According to Israeli television, IDF ground troops have moved into Lebanon in an attempt to find the two soldiers. The odds of them being successful, however, are small.
Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has declared the attacks an "act of war" and says he holds the government of Lebanon responsible for them.
Israeli Army reserve units have been put on alert for call up and a Government meeting is scheduled for 7 pm to determine what action to take.
Under international law, Lebanon is, indeed, responsible for Hizbollah's actions. It would not be had it taken all possible steps to keep Hizbollah from launching any attacks from within its borders, but it has taken no such steps at all. Indeed, Lebanon has repeatedly said that it is not the guarantor of Israel's safety.
On the other hand, it is very doubtful that the Lebanese government could take any effective steps even if it wanted to. The Lebanese military is very weak and I don't know what action it would be able to undertake against Hizbollah -- which certainly is stronger in the southern part of the country.
Moreover, if the Lebanese military were to attack Hizbollah, it would risk having Syria enter on Hizbollah's side. It would also risk re-igniting the tragic civil war the country endured for so long.
The worst possible scenario that Lebanon faces is Israel reacting with unrestrained attacks against the entire South and Beirut. The best that it can hope for is Israel restricting itself solely to Hizbollah targets in the South.
The probability is that Israel will do something in between. It will most likely concentrate on the South, and keep any ground troops in that area, but may well go after Lebanese infrastructure (such as electrical plants) in other parts of the country. This could easily result in widespread problems in Lebanon.
From an economic point of view, the situation is ripe with danger to both countries. The attacks came in the beginning of the tourist season and even the most restrained fighting, in a very restricted area, is liable to frighten off tourism to both Israel and Lebanon. As tourism is a major industry in both countries (albeit more important to the Lebanese economy than to Israel's) the impact is certain to be major.
Okay, that was my objective view. Now for my FlyerTalker view:
With a lot of luck, Israel will find the two soldiers quickly (and alive) and stop all further actions. Hizbollah will have gotten a good scare and not attack again. In the meantime, all the tourists going into Israel and Lebanon will be scared off, cancel their reservations, and you and I will be able to get airline tickets anywhere for pennies.
Jul 12, 2006, 8:59 am
#36
FlyerTalk Evangelist
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Wow, we have 2 OMNIers giving us instant updates from Lebanon and Israel. Stay safe and keep us posted.
And, Dovster, thanks for your objective view above.
And, Dovster, thanks for your objective view above.
Jul 12, 2006, 9:32 am
#37
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Just another note to say 'stay safe'.
And I for one will not be contributing to the lowering of ticket prices. I'm hoping to get over there in the next couple of months, missiles be damned.
And I for one will not be contributing to the lowering of ticket prices. I'm hoping to get over there in the next couple of months, missiles be damned.
Jul 12, 2006, 1:52 pm
#38
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I had hoped against hope that neither BEYFlyer or I would have any further news to contribute to this thread but apparently that is not to be the case.
We have two kinds of shelters on my kibbutz. The first are reinforced rooms attached to most houses and they are used when the situation appears to be somewhat dangerous. (My ex does not have one which is why she came to my house last time.)
The other kind are large, communal, shelters dug deeply into the ground. These are only used when the situation is considered extremely dangerous.
A few minutes ago we received SMS notification that "The Army is about to attack Lebanon. Everybody must go down to the shelters."
As the Army has been active all day in Lebanon -- since the Hizbollah rockets I first posted about -- I can only assume that this means a much serious IDF attack is about to happen (indeed, may already be underway) and that the army expects Hizbollah to return fire with everything it has.
I won't be going down to the shelter but I will sleep tonight in the reinforced room at my house -- the first time I have ever done so.
I very much hope that BEYFlyer's further contributions to this thread (if any) concern only things that he has heard about -- and not experienced first hand.
We have two kinds of shelters on my kibbutz. The first are reinforced rooms attached to most houses and they are used when the situation appears to be somewhat dangerous. (My ex does not have one which is why she came to my house last time.)
The other kind are large, communal, shelters dug deeply into the ground. These are only used when the situation is considered extremely dangerous.
A few minutes ago we received SMS notification that "The Army is about to attack Lebanon. Everybody must go down to the shelters."
As the Army has been active all day in Lebanon -- since the Hizbollah rockets I first posted about -- I can only assume that this means a much serious IDF attack is about to happen (indeed, may already be underway) and that the army expects Hizbollah to return fire with everything it has.
I won't be going down to the shelter but I will sleep tonight in the reinforced room at my house -- the first time I have ever done so.
I very much hope that BEYFlyer's further contributions to this thread (if any) concern only things that he has heard about -- and not experienced first hand.
Jul 12, 2006, 2:00 pm
#39
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Alameda, CA, USA
Posts: 4,906
All the best, Dovster, and to everyone caught up in this.
Jul 12, 2006, 2:27 pm
#40
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Dovster, Mrs. Cholula and I have been watching this all day on FOX News and I just had her read this thread a few minutes ago so she could come up to speed with your first person reports.
Thanks for keeping us updated and watch your butt.
Thanks for keeping us updated and watch your butt.