Global321

Sure, anything is possible. Maybe the EU will ban FF programs and make them illegal. Maybe Delta tomorrow will make a coach ticket cost 100,000,000,000,000 miles.
But nothing in aviation history suggests FF miles will be zero'd out or even reduced by some crazy amount if one airline takes over another. It simply has not happened.

The original premise that AA will zero out miles is simply something that is not realistic. That was really my only point.

rover4618

What kind of fool world do you live in ? If AA goes under and several different airlines pickup some of their routes there is no take over Johnny. Take a deep breath, sit down, have a cup of hot coco. I know this has got to be hard for you.

The game has changed and somebody has to get squeezed out so the others can survive and I know who its gonna be ...

craz

i dont disagree, only that as I said even if DL does a 1 to 1 should they takeover AA or even just the FF part, it takes alot more DL miles (usually) to get somewhere then it does/did AA miles IMO 1 AA mile is worth more then 1 DL mile, so a 1 to 1 still leaves AAers with less in the pocket, although the other side of the coin is something is better then nothing. And if anyone takes AA over whos to say we wont see exactly what Marriott did to SPG where SPGers ended up with a very short end of the stick

then a big $$ part of the biz is selling miles to the banks, most carriers are already in bed with a bank doubt they would be able to keep Barclay/Citi and I doubt the Banks would want to shell out Billions in todays mkt for untold Billions of AA miles, when they have more then they can handle of the other Carriers. Pre-Corona maybe something could have been worked out, Post-Corona everyones looking to hold onto as much $$$ as they can, I just dont see anyone going after AA, theres nothing AA or any other carrier has what to offer even under a tremendous fire sale price

rover4618

Is Chapter 11 Inevitable?

Calhoun also made the financial headlines by predicting that by the end of 2020, a major airline will “most likely” have gone out of business. This bleak outlook, coming from the chief of Boeing, should send shivers down the spine of AAL stockholders.

While it’s true that Calhoun didn’t mention American Airlines by name, it’s hard not to think of that particular company. As InvestorPlace contributor Thomas Niel suggests, American Airlines’ rate of cash burn is staggering:

“This airline alone anticipates losing $70 million a day through June. In other words, over $2 billion a month, or $6 billion a quarter. Losses are expected to come down this summer, but will still be in the billions per month.”
Niel recommends a wait-and-see approach with AAL stock, but not everyone is willing to be patient with this embattled company. Berenberg analyst Adrian Yanoshik concisely explains the trading community’s main issue with American Airlines, saying, “I could give you other reasons, but when you peel the onion back on those sub-reasons, they tend to end up with: They have more debt.”

That’s $34 billion worth of debt, to be specific. It’s more debt than any of the other major American airline companies have. And, it’s causing a certain group of financial traders to wager that American Airlines will, indeed, go bankrupt.Traders of credit default swaps, if you can believe it, have placed the likelihood of American Airlines defaulting at almost 100%. Within a span of three months, the price of five-year credit default swaps on American Airlines have increased by over 4,000%.


UH OH !!

MaxVO

If that happens, any predictions for subsequent course of events?
My bet would be for AS taking over, immediately changing the livery for something understated and classy, and adopting AA as the name of the combined entity. The current junta will be allowed to escape with the loot by deploying their golden parachutes.

Global321

You have not made a single articulate argument for your position that accounts will be zero'd out.

And what else did the article say?

"Things sound bleak for American Airlines. Yet, with the share price falling below $10 per share, the stock could be bottoming out."
"Nevertheless, don’t see this to mean, “American stock is heading to zero.” Granted, air travel could remain depressed for several years."

And not a single reference to the mileage program folding, which is what you have been suggesting..

And what was the author's advice...
"Bottom line: wait for American Airlines shares to head lower before entering a position. At prices far in the single-digits, the potential price appreciation could more than make up for the risk."

So the author says if the stock gets to the low single digits, buy. Doesn't sound like they think bankruptcy is on the horizon.

mia

This thread will be closed again, and posting privileges suspended, if there is further taunting. Learn to write about ideas without personal overtones.

Adelphos

Looking at the situation now, several months later, AA offers several cards from two different banks - current rules and promotions suggest that AA seems currently OK with cardholders that got or get sign-up bonuses from multiple card products (Platinum, Executive, Mileup, Business cards, Barclays Cards, etc). These cards now all have 48 month language for each individual cards, clearing the way for applicants to get these cards without targeted mailers and within published rules. Looking back, it seems that almost all of the account shutdown were associated with multiple bonuses on the same card, not multiple bonuses across different cards, checking accounts or other products. Personally, I am looking to resume signing up for Citi and Barclays AA cards under the current rules.

sdsearch

It's not clear whether everyone they went after applied for the same card. Most did, but not necessarily all.

What they didn't go after was 2 Citi cards in 2 calendar years, only 3 or more Citi AA cards in 2 calendar years. (They never considered Barclays cards.) AA assumed that those had to be gotten through mailers, rather than actually finding out whether they were gotten from mailers. So there were a few people who got caught up in it because tricky timing allowed them to get 3+ Citi AA cards in 2 years without mailers, which AA didn't think was possible. Ie, AA didn't investigate all the ways that were possible to get Citi AA cards, they just heard about mailers and made a bunch of (not completely correct) assumptions.

So be wary of staying in AA's good grace by knowing what's possible without mailers, given that AA didn't care what was really possible without mailers, they just assumed what was impossible without mailers.

And so I would say that you still may want to get no more than 2 AA cards from each bank in any 2 calendar years. Given the 48 months on each card, with only 4 AA cards at Citi, you can't do more long run than an average of one a year anyway. So why rush it initially if that might increase the risk?

radonc1

For me, the question is pretty straightforward. Is getting a single additional SUB worth the potential loss of my elite account as well as any miles in it? And should I lose sleep worrying about a possible consequence of obtaining said SUB

The answer is obvious (for me). No.

If I am desperate for points, I can always buy them, and if I do the point purchase in conjunction with buying an AA ticket with my AA credit card, I earn bonus miles on the entire purchase (ticket cost plus miles cost) as well. While it might cost more money than angling for a SUB, it saves me office fees from my physician due to his seeing me for insomnia

rover4618

Risk firm: 'American is most at risk' of coronavirus default among US airlines

,.A score below 40 places a firm at risk of failing. Gellert said RapidRatings has more than a decade of proven results, “Over 90% of companies that failed have been rated 40 and below on our scales.”

After the coronavirus shock, both ratings fell below 40 to a post-shock (FHR) 29 and post-shock (CHS) of 27.

Uh Oh !

https://www.yahoo.com/news/ratings-f...210110806.html

sdsearch

That means very little. It's backwardly phrased to promote the company making that statement.

What would matter what % of companies that have been rated 40 and below on their scale have actually failed, and within what amount of time. That could be anything between 0.1% and 99.9%, and anything from 1 week to a century, but this statement doesn't shed any light on what that value is.

And while AA is shown the lowest in two categories (short term and longer term), UA is virtually the same low rating for longer term as AA is.

Finally, there's no mention of airlines outside the top 4. But if an airline outside the top 4 fails first, that might help some of the top 4 at that point.

MaxVO

Having come to such conclusion right from the start, why spend such effort analyzing the statement of no value to us? Instead, I would ask myself why a headline trashing AA in Yahoo news feed is a better click bait than one trashing UA. Just a short year ago UA could easily be the most hated domestic airline. Has there been a shift in the popular sentiment? People posting in this thread are not expected to be impartial toward AA, but manipulating statistics for the general audience could be a more impartial indicator.

James Ben

So, if my account still seems active, does that mean it's good, or is AA still shutting down accounts once you book or travel?

MaxVO

If you still haven't received "the email" from Corporate Security, you're probably good. To be certain of your status, you'll need to book AA award travel and have tickets issued.