Citi AA churn - impact on Amex, BoA, Chase et.al. application strategy?
#31
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 615
I think there is a country music song about "No such thing as a car too fast, a girl to pretty" and my next line would be no such things a AA account with too many miles! It is a losing proposition in my mind to get back under 5/24 while this epic churn exists. Once/If it ends then I may explore other avenues.
And what's the oppty cost in saving for 5/24? Losing out on 1MM AA miles for what - just so you can get 60K united miles or possibly a CP?
I'm lucky - I can use AA miles for DC-Miami trips, trips to South American (wife is from there), trips to Europe, etc. We're a family of 5 which means one Europe redemption for 5 in coach is 300k AA miles. Now that I'm starting to look at AA for hotel stays, those AA miles will go by quickly.
#33
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 1,857
That's the real question that people aren't thinking about. If you're doing these cards 2/65 (or 62) for 2 years at 75k/card, that's 1.8 million miles you're giving up to get under 5/24. Even if you're only able to get 50k/card, you're still losing 1.2 million.
#34
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: On strike
Posts: 8,135
You now have a good picture of why someone would dial back a formerly exuberant Citi AA churn pattern (except for the occasional Citi AA biz card applied for using a mailer code) and wait out 5/24. (Did I mention *A's vastly superior European route network and the UA policy of allowing an extra in-region segment at no extra cost?)
For some people, it is an entirely rational decision to stop chasing more AA miles via the Citi churn. My marginal utility for additional UA miles and UR points is so much higher that I'm perfectly happy to incur the opportunity cost of slowing down for ~1.3 years until older apps drop off the 24-month window.
YM (quite literally) MV. We're not all identically situated, and one person's situation can vary over time. Someday I may go back to hitting Citi AA cards hard; now is not that time.
#35
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 889
#36
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 889
I'll let other slow down their churn to get some chase cards, thins the herd a little ...
#37
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 1,857
Posit a couple--let's call them Mr. & Mrs. Beltway--who already have >1.5MM AA miles between them. Suppose further that their preferred travel destinations are in western & central Europe; that they refuse to pay BA YQ; and that (generally speaking) they hate connecting through LHR for multiple reasons. Finally, add on top of that AA's limited number of European destinations, plus the increasing unavailability of SAAver J seats in the outbound direction.
You now have a good picture of why someone would dial back a formerly exuberant Citi AA churn pattern (except for the occasional Citi AA biz card applied for using a mailer code) and wait out 5/24. (Did I mention *A's vastly superior European route network and the UA policy of allowing an extra in-region segment at no extra cost?)
For some people, it is an entirely rational decision to stop chasing more AA miles via the Citi churn. My marginal utility for additional UA miles and UR points is so much higher that I'm perfectly happy to incur the opportunity cost of slowing down for ~1.3 years until older apps drop off the 24-month window.
YM (quite literally) MV. We're not all identically situated, and one person's situation can vary over time. Someday I may go back to hitting Citi AA cards hard; now is not that time.
You now have a good picture of why someone would dial back a formerly exuberant Citi AA churn pattern (except for the occasional Citi AA biz card applied for using a mailer code) and wait out 5/24. (Did I mention *A's vastly superior European route network and the UA policy of allowing an extra in-region segment at no extra cost?)
For some people, it is an entirely rational decision to stop chasing more AA miles via the Citi churn. My marginal utility for additional UA miles and UR points is so much higher that I'm perfectly happy to incur the opportunity cost of slowing down for ~1.3 years until older apps drop off the 24-month window.
YM (quite literally) MV. We're not all identically situated, and one person's situation can vary over time. Someday I may go back to hitting Citi AA cards hard; now is not that time.
The only thing I didn't follow in your post was that you'd only slow down for ~1.3 years to get under 5/24. I'm sure I'm just missing a trick here - can you explain how you wouldn't have to slow down for the full 2?
#38
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: On strike
Posts: 8,135
So this isn’t entirely OT, let me add that apart from the signup bonus, I have no real use for a Citi AA card. Like any other holder of the Barclays Aviator Red, I get the key benefits (free domestic checked bag, 10% award rebate) regardless of whether I have the Citi counterpart.
#39
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 615
Posit a couple--let's call them Mr. & Mrs. Beltway--who already have >1.5MM AA miles between them. Suppose further that their preferred travel destinations are in western & central Europe; that they refuse to pay BA YQ; and that (generally speaking) they hate connecting through LHR for multiple reasons. Finally, add on top of that AA's limited number of European destinations, plus the increasing unavailability of SAAver J seats in the outbound direction.
You now have a good picture of why someone would dial back a formerly exuberant Citi AA churn pattern (except for the occasional Citi AA biz card applied for using a mailer code) and wait out 5/24. (Did I mention *A's vastly superior European route network and the UA policy of allowing an extra in-region segment at no extra cost?)
For some people, it is an entirely rational decision to stop chasing more AA miles via the Citi churn. My marginal utility for additional UA miles and UR points is so much higher that I'm perfectly happy to incur the opportunity cost of slowing down for ~1.3 years until older apps drop off the 24-month window.
YM (quite literally) MV. We're not all identically situated, and one person's situation can vary over time. Someday I may go back to hitting Citi AA cards hard; now is not that time.
You now have a good picture of why someone would dial back a formerly exuberant Citi AA churn pattern (except for the occasional Citi AA biz card applied for using a mailer code) and wait out 5/24. (Did I mention *A's vastly superior European route network and the UA policy of allowing an extra in-region segment at no extra cost?)
For some people, it is an entirely rational decision to stop chasing more AA miles via the Citi churn. My marginal utility for additional UA miles and UR points is so much higher that I'm perfectly happy to incur the opportunity cost of slowing down for ~1.3 years until older apps drop off the 24-month window.
YM (quite literally) MV. We're not all identically situated, and one person's situation can vary over time. Someday I may go back to hitting Citi AA cards hard; now is not that time.
All that said, Chase only has a couple of cards for *A that are worthwhile and Chase is clamping down on the churning of these cards. Again, is getting a 60k UA card worth it? I'm guessing you have all the UR generating cards already especially the ones with a high sign up bonus? I guess my point is - the chase alternative is very limited.
#40
Original Poster
Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 1,269
Interesting article about Chase and "super users"
#41
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: On strike
Posts: 8,135
So what's the catch? It feels harder & harder to find SAAver J to the destinations you mention. For example have a look at May 9 forward to MAD/BCN/CDG (or MXP/VCE/ZRH, for that matter). There's plenty of AAnytime J (from 110K up to 180K) from WAS or PHL, but--last I checked--no SAAver space. At. All. And I've been checking regularly since the booking window opened.
Perhaps this is just the new AA way. If so, I'll plunk down 110K OW on occasion, but boy does that change the value proposition.
All that said, Chase only has a couple of cards for *A that are worthwhile and Chase is clamping down on the churning of these cards. Again, is getting a 60k UA card worth it? I'm guessing you have all the UR generating cards already especially the ones with a high sign up bonus? I guess my point is - the chase alternative is very limited.
#43
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 615
I've reached the point where I'm unwilling to fly eastbound TATL in coach. It isn't about luxury or feeling DYKWIAish; I just need the sleep so I'm not dead on my feet on day of arrival & jet-lagged for a week. I'm willing (and just did earlier this month) to fly Y on the way home.
So what's the catch? It feels harder & harder to find SAAver J to the destinations you mention. For example have a look at May 9 forward to MAD/BCN/CDG (or MXP/VCE/ZRH, for that matter). There's plenty of AAnytime J (from 110K up to 180K) from WAS or PHL, but--last I checked--no SAAver space. At. All. And I've been checking regularly since the booking window opened.
Perhaps this is just the new AA way. If so, I'll plunk down 110K OW on occasion, but boy does that change the value proposition.
Nope. DW has one premium card (old Ink+) and the free/downgraded UA card; I have a couple of Freedom cards. We each got one or two of the original Sapphire card when it first came out, but all bonii were >4 years ago. We're also eligible to hit the UA cards again. So there's a good deal of headroom--not so much that I'm planning to retire on it, but worth cycling through to replenish our UR/UA store.
So what's the catch? It feels harder & harder to find SAAver J to the destinations you mention. For example have a look at May 9 forward to MAD/BCN/CDG (or MXP/VCE/ZRH, for that matter). There's plenty of AAnytime J (from 110K up to 180K) from WAS or PHL, but--last I checked--no SAAver space. At. All. And I've been checking regularly since the booking window opened.
Perhaps this is just the new AA way. If so, I'll plunk down 110K OW on occasion, but boy does that change the value proposition.
Nope. DW has one premium card (old Ink+) and the free/downgraded UA card; I have a couple of Freedom cards. We each got one or two of the original Sapphire card when it first came out, but all bonii were >4 years ago. We're also eligible to hit the UA cards again. So there's a good deal of headroom--not so much that I'm planning to retire on it, but worth cycling through to replenish our UR/UA store.
You're 100% right on AA. Looked at MAD, as an example, and while Y class is very attainable with sAAver, J is another story (my argument was only based on economy redemptions). Best I could find is a 57.5k with stops on the way out (while avoiding BA).
As for Chase, since you have so much to acquire, I see your point in staying under 5/24!
#44
Suspended
Join Date: Oct 2017
Location: Miami, Florida
Programs: AA ExPlat, Hyatt Globalist, IHG Spire, Hilton Gold
Posts: 4,009
#45
Original Poster
Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 1,269
Just to check back and follow up on my original question, can those of you who (i) are at lol/24 due to the AA churn and (ii) have recently applied for Chase cards not subject to 5/24 confirm that you've had no problems since opening those cards? There are comments above saying that the # of new accounts alone shouldn't be a problem unless it is paired with activity that looks like break out fraud potential (e.g., adding and removing authorized users). I'd like to get the new IHG card for its sign up bonus, but Chase is my primary bank, and I really don't want to have a problem that would cause me to switch banks.