How to Predict Award Availability?
 

I feel fairly confident the answer to my question is, simply, "no," but if there are any tricks of the trade I thought I'd ask.

I have a good stash of choice points expiring at the end of this year. I would like to use them for Scandinavian properties this summer. I have back up reservations at Radisson properties, but if I can use my choice points, that would be better. If, however, there will be no availability at my desired Choice properties when the 60-day window opens, I'll be in a somewhat tough spot, because I'll have more points to burn than I likely can before the end of the year. (For example, if I knew today that there would be no availability this summer, I'd start burning points now.)

So, the question is, do any of you have any good tricks or tips to get a sense of what availability is likely to be at the 60-day window? Is there a way to get a rough sense of occupancy, etc.? For example, I know that rooms are available right now, but whether they are the last two rooms, or two of 100, is impossible to know. My expectation is that points redemptions in Scandinavia is iffy in the summer in general, but I guess I'm wondering, how iffy? Like, "tough," or "impossible"?

First of all, it depends on where exactly in Scandinavia. For example, in Bergen Norway, there are multiple Choice properties, and the likelihood of one of them (even if not your first choice, pardon the pun) having award avaiability (at 60 days out) might be greater than out deep on the fjords where Choice properties are spread rather far apart (only one in Sogndal, only one in Eidsfjord, etc), and thus where at each destination there's at most one Choice property nearby, and so I never needed that BW backup in the end.

(Though since you're talking about backup reservations at Radisson properties, it doesn't sound like you're talking about deep out on the fjords, because there are few if any Radissons there, and certianly not right next to each of the sparsely-strewn Choice properties.)

However, one year a few years ago, I though I was out of luck for at least one night of my trip to the Eidsfjord area, and booked a backup at a BW an hour or so drive away (at Kirnavnik), but close in to my stay there must have been a cancellation, because suddenly rooms opened up.

So if you don't see something when your window of 60 days opens, keep checking back (at least until your cancellation deadline on your backup property).

Thanks -- good points. I am looking mostly at cities. The two properties I am most concerned about are the Clarion Stavanger and the Mayfair in Copenhagen. Elsewhere, I can be more flexible with Choice, but if I can't get these two properties, I will stay at Radissons. I would book about 140,000 points at these properties, so if May comes around and I get shut out, I will probably have trouble using all of the points before they expire and end up using them for airline mile transfers, which would be a shame. So, if I knew they were longshots, I probably would just give up and plan to stay at Radissons this summer and start using my Choice points now.