China Tanking?
 

Looks to me that with the global financial crisis China is on the brink of getting hit hard. Granted they have a lot of capital reserve .... but I see signs that
its not going to be good.

Will hold off on renewing my visa for awhile. Email is cheaper than flight tickets.

Companies exporting to the US or Europe are in deep, the ones selling on the domestic market or Central Asia/India/Middle East/Russia not necessarily so.

Luxury highrise apartments selling at 5K per sqm is on the horizon.:(

My normally packed flight to Xiamen today was practically empty in J. That may not be a assessment of the situation, but an indicator.

When moondog the resident FT "Old China Hand" exited China.
It was kinda like " Joe the Plumber" through in his plunger.

No money here...at least for the time being...time to move on.
Then again.. I never heard of any laowai making any (big) money in China..ever!
At least since 1949.

Well I've had a heck of a time finding seats in flights in china and between china and hong kong, and almost all of my flights are completely sold out up front and in the back. That's about twice a week too.

for me .....great opportunity to weed out the weak and vultures. only the genuine need apply !!! :cool:@:-)^

I know a few in Hongkong and Korea. ;) And also have a slightly different and more positive opinion on chances to make money on the Chinese market.

Rest assured, I'll get myself back there in due course (maybe as soon as Jan). In the meantime, I believe that there are better opportunities stateside. As crazy as that may sound, the US economy has a type of stability that has yet to take shape in China.

When I was there, I witnessed all of the excesses first hand and have a pretty good idea about how things are playing out now (pretty bad).

That having been said, I'm excited by the downturn in the Shanghai real estate market because I think the long-term prospects remain quite strong. In fact, a friend and I are in the process of setting up a fund to invest in such.

china is slowing for sure, the latest indication is http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/913ab632-a...077b07658.html results from ICBC. but not in the developed world sense - profit growth is slowing , not quite the same as negative real growth in the UK, for example.

Mathematically speaking, assuming F(x):=profit. One could say that negative second derivative (f''(x)), will decrease the value of the first derivative (f'(x)).... and when the first one goes negative, the growth (F(x)) will become negative.

I am pretty sure that in UK, before the growth became negative, the rate of profit growth slowed down too.

Jeff Green needs to go over there with his new Chinese wife, I am sure he could figure out how to make bank when the whole economy implodes there.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/26885945/