Current China Entry policy
Jun 20, 2021, 11:08 pm
#676
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Location: Shanghai
Posts: 41,984
I agree that this seems to be the general idea.
If true, though, the “72.9% vaccinated to hit herd immunity” is meaningless. Really it’s a question of “What percentage of people without a vaccine are we ok with having the potential to get seriously ill from Covid?” Obviously vaccine distribution only gets harder once the big cities are covered.
If US and EU reopening goes smoothly, this will put the most pressure on reopening. Don’t think any other factor matters
If true, though, the “72.9% vaccinated to hit herd immunity” is meaningless. Really it’s a question of “What percentage of people without a vaccine are we ok with having the potential to get seriously ill from Covid?” Obviously vaccine distribution only gets harder once the big cities are covered.
If US and EU reopening goes smoothly, this will put the most pressure on reopening. Don’t think any other factor matters
Jun 20, 2021, 11:14 pm
#677
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If that 72.9% was evenly distributed (and is an accurate estimate), I would disagree with you because if R0 falls below 1, the virus should disappear. However, since the regional distribution presumably has a high standard deviation, I'm inclined to agree because we are still permitted to roam freely here (with some exceptions like Shenzhen). Of course, China could take all sorts of steps to effectively make vaccinations mandatory. That Y100/dose price tag might be cost prohibitive in poorer areas though (e.g. if the choice between visiting a fancy shopping all and feeding your family, many would opt for the latter).
And I continue to stand by my prediction of nothing opening up for at least a year if not more.
Jun 20, 2021, 11:37 pm
#678
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I suppose that makes sense; we can afford it, and they don't really seem to want us here anyway.
Jun 21, 2021, 1:57 am
#679
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Join Date: Feb 2015
Location: CA, FL, and China.
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People are really having meltdowns in Guangdong now. Constantly talking about which area is “safe”
Is there any reason to believe I should get a Chinese vaccine before leaving back to the states in August? I’ll be applying for HDC to return to China again at the end of august or early Sep.
And is there any kind of working list of approved flights into China? Trying to strategize a bit but it’s difficult to know which cities are even a possibility to depart from.
Is there any reason to believe I should get a Chinese vaccine before leaving back to the states in August? I’ll be applying for HDC to return to China again at the end of august or early Sep.
And is there any kind of working list of approved flights into China? Trying to strategize a bit but it’s difficult to know which cities are even a possibility to depart from.
Last edited by GloballyServiced; Jun 21, 2021 at 3:00 am
Jun 21, 2021, 3:14 am
#680
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Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Shanghai
Posts: 41,984
People are really having meltdowns in Guangdong now. Constantly talking about which area is “safe”
Is there any reason to believe I should get a Chinese vaccine before leaving back to the states in August? I’ll be applying for HDC to return to China again at the end of august or early Sep.
And is there any kind of working list of approved flights into China? Trying to strategize a bit but it’s difficult to know which cities are even a possibility to depart from.
Is there any reason to believe I should get a Chinese vaccine before leaving back to the states in August? I’ll be applying for HDC to return to China again at the end of august or early Sep.
And is there any kind of working list of approved flights into China? Trying to strategize a bit but it’s difficult to know which cities are even a possibility to depart from.
Jun 21, 2021, 4:44 am
#681
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Feb 2003
Posts: 10,206
People are really having meltdowns in Guangdong now. Constantly talking about which area is “safe”
Is there any reason to believe I should get a Chinese vaccine before leaving back to the states in August? I’ll be applying for HDC to return to China again at the end of august or early Sep.
And is there any kind of working list of approved flights into China? Trying to strategize a bit but it’s difficult to know which cities are even a possibility to depart from.
Is there any reason to believe I should get a Chinese vaccine before leaving back to the states in August? I’ll be applying for HDC to return to China again at the end of august or early Sep.
And is there any kind of working list of approved flights into China? Trying to strategize a bit but it’s difficult to know which cities are even a possibility to depart from.
Jun 21, 2021, 4:55 am
#682
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Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Shanghai
Posts: 41,984
The MU flights seem to get axed a lot and so does DL's DTW. I'm feeling good about my AA choice because they are just now reentering the market so they should be able to bleed money for several months.
Jun 21, 2021, 5:56 am
#683
Join Date: Jan 2020
Programs: Marriott Titanium (Lifetime Gold), Caesars Diamond
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HK giving preferential treatment to vaccinated people, shorter quarantine (7 days), reduced social distancing
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...ys-2021-06-21/
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...ys-2021-06-21/
Jun 21, 2021, 6:26 am
#684
Ambassador, Hong Kong and Macau
Join Date: May 2009
Location: HKG
Programs: Non-top tier Asia Miles member
Posts: 19,759
HK giving preferential treatment to vaccinated people, shorter quarantine (7 days), reduced social distancing
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...ys-2021-06-21/
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...ys-2021-06-21/
- Antibody testing is not even applicable to visitors to Hong Kong from PRC
Jun 21, 2021, 6:49 am
#685
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Apr 2003
Programs: UA*Lifetime GS, Hyatt* Lifetime Globalist
Posts: 12,310
I think getting one of the two Chinese vaccines increases your chance of getting approval to return to China. It has happened to my friends and colleagues who were rejected previously (before leaving China), but received approval to return after taking the Chinese vaccines (before leaving for the US). They applied for approval to return to China at PRC consulate in SF (where UA operates its direct flight SFO-PVG) before leaving China to ensure they could return after home trips to the US.
Jun 21, 2021, 9:31 am
#687
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Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Shanghai
Posts: 41,984
-I put a DL ticket on hold via DTW (nice connection), and they switched me to SEA...with a 6 hour layover before a red eye to BOS...no thanks
-MU via JFK was actually my first choice, but they were coming in 2x as much as other options
-before AA relaunched DFW (I don't think it's actually started yet), they were coming in lowest on search engines via HKG, LAX, and DFW (with 12 hours in HKG)
-I considered UA 858, but it was a morning departure when I was looking, plus a long layover in SFO
-JL would have been nice (nonstop NRT-BOS), but when I searched, there were NO flights between SHA/PVG and NRT (I would have needed to go to DLC and FUK to pull that off)
-I looked at KE via ICN (also nonstop BOS flight), they weren't even selling that routing
I'm happy with my AA choice. I booked an afternoon flight the next day so I can enjoy a morning swim at the DFW GH, and have a decent lunch. I'll let you guys know how it pans out.
Jun 21, 2021, 11:49 am
#688
Join Date: Jan 2020
Programs: Marriott Titanium (Lifetime Gold), Caesars Diamond
Posts: 1,390
HK giving preferential treatment to vaccinated people, shorter quarantine (7 days), reduced social distancing
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...ys-2021-06-21/
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...ys-2021-06-21/
Well, we can dream that HK pushes the PRC government to accept people...
Jun 21, 2021, 3:53 pm
#689
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 38,401
If that 72.9% was evenly distributed (and is an accurate estimate), I would disagree with you because if R0 falls below 1, the virus should disappear. However, since the regional distribution presumably has a high standard deviation, I'm inclined to agree because we are still permitted to roam freely here (with some exceptions like Shenzhen). Of course, China could take all sorts of steps to effectively make vaccinations mandatory. That Y100/dose price tag might be cost prohibitive in poorer areas though (e.g. if the choice between visiting a fancy shopping all and feeding your family, many would opt for the latter).
Jun 21, 2021, 4:00 pm
#690
Join Date: Jan 2020
Programs: Marriott Titanium (Lifetime Gold), Caesars Diamond
Posts: 1,390
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...oses-isolation
TLDR
TLDR
- Zhong Nanshan, a top adviser on China’s Covid response, said last month that 72.9% of the population needs to be vaccinated for China to reach herd immunity.
- But that estimation is typically based on vaccine efficacy rates of 80%, which only one of the six shots China is currently administering achieved in clinical trials, and could be one reason China is reluctant to ease other restrictions.
Obviously we all know the number is symbolically meaningless and they are going to do whatever they want to do. This is why I don't really bother with discussions of vaccine efficacy etc in China, there is also a better forum for that https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/coronavirus-travel-773/
