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Current China Entry policy

Current China Entry policy

Old Oct 24, 22, 12:41 am
  #2206  
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Covid Zero is can kicking. China is going to have to pay the butcher’s bill sooner or later. It would’ve have helped if they didn’t laugh at US and other western countries earlier, now it’s got a higher pedestal to have to get off from.

Indigenous mRNA will help lower the bill but not eliminate it; wonder how long will that take to finish development and be deployed?
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Old Oct 24, 22, 3:03 am
  #2207  
 
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Originally Posted by percysmith View Post
Covid Zero is can kicking. China is going to have to pay the butcher’s bill sooner or later. It would’ve have helped if they didn’t laugh at US and other western countries earlier, now it’s got a higher pedestal to have to get off from.

Indigenous mRNA will help lower the bill but not eliminate it; wonder how long will that take to finish development and be deployed?
Agreed.

The first big gamble was that domestic vaccines would work. The second big gamble was that covid would be beat outside China and at that point China can open up without risk. And that will not happen for some years so both bets lost.

There was no way there would be any opening of the borders before the recently finished congress. So what is the next inflection point at which point borders could (or could not) be opened?
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Old Oct 24, 22, 3:18 am
  #2208  
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Originally Posted by uanj View Post
So what is the next inflection point at which point borders could (or could not) be opened?
April 1. Seems arbitrary, I know, but these guys are masters of arbitrary.
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Old Oct 24, 22, 3:33 am
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Originally Posted by moondog View Post
April 1. Seems arbitrary, I know, but these guys are masters of arbitrary.
What date/event is this?
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Old Oct 24, 22, 3:33 am
  #2210  
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Originally Posted by uanj View Post
There was no way there would be any opening of the borders before the recently finished congress. So what is the next inflection point at which point borders could (or could not) be opened?
After 14th NPC has been convened (i.e. after March 2023) says press in HK, if we're going by political calendar https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/13th_N...e%27s_Congress

But this is as much tea-leaf reading as reading EF seat maps to deduce whether last minute redemption seats and or op-ups.

I need to confess I am hopeless reading national political calendars. I did try to learn. I even read the National Education textbooks (the free ones I can download thru Educity, anyway) and took a HKICPA-arranged trip to SYSU to cram National Education; but I can still better lookup and understand the Australian parliamentary calendar than the Chinese one.
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Last edited by percysmith; Oct 24, 22 at 3:54 am
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Old Oct 24, 22, 3:41 am
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Thanks for the context. I’m going to Taiwan Nov-Dec and realistically the next window I would be able to go to China is Sept-Oct 2023 so I can hibernate until then. Hopefully I can get a tourist visa, or maybe I’ll do something to get a business visa. Lol
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Old Oct 24, 22, 12:59 pm
  #2212  
 
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China pretty much are the Native Americans at this point regarding Covid. 90%+ of them weren't killed by bloodthirsty Europeans directly, but by their diseases.

Best way to get themselves out of this situation would probably be to push a Omicron-specific booster rapidely, with Singapore-like rules. Get it, or be responsible for yourself (and for your hospital bill) - and then QUICKLY open up before the booster effects become less strong, having prepared all capacity for the (higher) amounts of hospital cases they would receive nevertheless.

Now, with winter approaching (which means weaker immune systems in general imho), they probably have to wait till spring for an opening up, but by preparing NOW with booster vaccines (don't have to be the best ones, just reasonable working ones against Omicron), then start the booster vacinations in January, be finished in February, open up in late February, let covid spread in March-April..

I know this won't happen. But it would be the most sane approach at this point imho.
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Old Oct 24, 22, 2:17 pm
  #2213  
 
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I AM NOT being a jerk.
But I frequently see across multiple boards and conversation (beyond FT) this notion that there is a magical vax out there (typically mRNA) that will save Chinese citizens from Covid-0

Covid-0 is the problem.
No one (pharma/govt/etc) is even pretending mRNA stops you from getting sick and/or transmission...they simply argue that it saves you from serious illness.
There was a brief moment in 2021 when it seemed mRNA might be doing the job, but that dream has passed.
CDC Director just got the latest and greatest booster specifically for omicron, and poof, she got covid.
Covid-0 is the problem. There is no panacea other than changing Covid-0 policy.

Last edited by pruss2ny; Oct 24, 22 at 2:24 pm
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Old Oct 24, 22, 2:42 pm
  #2214  
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Originally Posted by pruss2ny View Post
I AM NOT being a jerk.
But I frequently see across multiple boards and conversation (beyond FT) this notion that there is a magical vax out there (typically mRNA) that will save Chinese citizens from Covid-0

Covid-0 is the problem.
No one (pharma/govt/etc) is even pretending mRNA stops you from getting sick and/or transmission...they simply argue that it saves you from serious illness.
There was a brief moment in 2021 when it seemed mRNA might be doing the job, but that dream has passed.
CDC Director just got the latest and greatest booster specifically for omicron, and poof, she got covid.
Covid-0 is the problem. There is no panacea other than changing Covid-0 policy.
Without a good vaccine you can't open up - hospitals will be hopelessly overwhelmed, as the vaccine still provides good protection from hospitalization and great protection from death, especially for an immunologically "naive" population.

With a good vaccine you can theoretically open up - if you drop Covid-0. Then you only have to overcome the CCP save-face.
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Old Oct 24, 22, 2:51 pm
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Originally Posted by Smiley90 View Post
Without a good vaccine you can't open up - hospitals will be hopelessly overwhelmed, as the vaccine still provides good protection from hospitalization and great protection from death, especially for an immunologically "naive" population.

With a good vaccine you can theoretically open up - if you drop Covid-0. Then you only have to overcome the CCP save-face.
That's pretty much what I've said.. not sure if you disagree to my posting (?)
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Old Oct 24, 22, 3:16 pm
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Smiley90...I would argue you are confusing “good vaccine” with what Covid-0 Policy considers a “good vaccine”.
I’d also dispute China is an immunologically naive population...my first bout of covid came out of a trip to china in late 2019/early 2020...given how transmissible it is, and how open China was for most of 2020-2021, it would be hard to believe it hasn’t circulated, no?
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Old Oct 24, 22, 4:19 pm
  #2217  
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Originally Posted by YuropFlyer View Post
That's pretty much what I've said.. not sure if you disagree to my posting (?)
I don't disagree, I was just adding the distinction!

Originally Posted by pruss2ny View Post
Smiley90...I would argue you are confusing “good vaccine” with what Covid-0 Policy considers a “good vaccine”.
I’d also dispute China is an immunologically naive population...my first bout of covid came out of a trip to china in late 2019/early 2020...given how transmissible it is, and how open China was for most of 2020-2021, it would be hard to believe it hasn’t circulated, no?
More naive than the rest of the world, arguably...
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Old Oct 24, 22, 8:21 pm
  #2218  
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Originally Posted by gudugan View Post
What date/event is this?
percysmith provided the gist of it; I can only add that I've heard April 1 from sources that have ALWAYS proved reliable during the past.

WRT "the past"; we were locked inside of our houses during April and May.

During the third week of May, they told us that we'd be free to roam on June 1.

The most common reaction was "whatever".

Suffice it to say, the floodgates (completely) opened at midnight on June 1. I lack words to describe the suddenness of this "on/off" transition, so I will simply opine that I was wowed.

April 1 appears to have similar momentum to June 1, but we shall see.
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Last edited by moondog; Oct 25, 22 at 7:04 am
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Old Oct 24, 22, 11:16 pm
  #2219  
 
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Zero Covid is not a problem for the great and powerful Chairman. He likes it and he’s 100% in control of the ship.

Propaganda works, most of the people in my apartment building are incredibly afraid of Covid and like the policy, even after the 2 month lockdown.

Business is clamoring for a reopening but business was escorted out of the conference last Saturday.

April 1 ain’t happening. There will be years of zero Covid. Tracking and tracing via app is here to stay and although the quarantine may lessen in length by a bit or allow more quarantine from home, it won’t return to 2019 style for at least a few more years.

China has changed. We may not like it or welcome it, but what we want doesn’t really matter.
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Old Oct 25, 22, 2:49 am
  #2220  
 
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Hate to keep beating this drum but will as long as the meme of "Chinese vaccines don't work" keeps rearing its head here and elsewhere. Real-world data has shown three doses of Sinovac (the less efficacious of the two inactivated vaccines, mind you) is just as effective as three doses of Pfizer/BioNTech in preventing severe outcomes and death, even among those over 60.

Experts assumed China needed an mRNA COVID vaccine to reopen safely. New data suggest that may not be the case
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