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Which longhaul routes to/from China will be cut by end of Q1 2020?

Which longhaul routes to/from China will be cut by end of Q1 2020?

Old Jan 27, 20, 3:44 am
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Which longhaul routes to/from China will be cut by end of Q1 2020?

I am not sure whether this topic is covered in other threads, as well. Please point me to them, if possible.

With the coronavirus outbreak many airlines are issueing travel waivers for China. "High yield" business passenger may be barred from flying to China by company policy.
Moreover, tour group travel from China seem to be have been suspended, as well.
Even without the corona-virus outbreak, judging on the recent low J-fares, I assume that PVG and PEK are fighting with overcapacity.

My prediction on route cuts:
- LH FRA-PVG (seasonal late night departure from Frankfurt)
- OS VIE-PVG CONFIRMED - IT IS CUT
- HO DUB-HEL-PVG
- EK DXB-PVG (cut of one daily frequency)
- BA LHR-PVG (cut of one daily frequency) CONFIRMED - IT IS CUT
- KL AMS-PVG (cut of the second daily) CONFIRMED CUT
- CZ FRA-CSX-CAN
- MU FRA-PVG
- CX FRA-HKG (permanent cut of second daily)
- CA MUC-PVG
- AY HEL-PVG (cut of the second daily)
- CA ARN-PEK
- LH FRA-NKG cut confirmed
- LH FRA-SHE cut confirmed

- HU PRG-PEK
- CA PEK-MSQ-BUD
- LH MUC-PEK cut confirmed
- CA LHR-PEK (cut of second daily)
- MU CDG-PVG (cut of second daily)
- MU LAX-PVG (cut of second daily)
- MU ORD-PVG
- UA ORD-PVG cut confirmed
- DL LAX-PVG cut confirmed
- MU YVR-PVG (cut of second daily)
... and many more

Last edited by warakorn; Feb 1, 20 at 12:45 am
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Old Jan 27, 20, 10:12 pm
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Latest OAG shows HU cutting back PEK-SJC to one flight per week in March. I would say they will pull this flight.
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Old Jan 29, 20, 3:44 am
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So all BA flights from LHR to Mainland China (that means only to PEK and PVG) have been cut.
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Old Jan 29, 20, 8:17 am
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LH wants to cancel all flights to China.
https://www.bild.de/geld/wirtschaft/...0544.bild.html
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Old Jan 30, 20, 2:44 am
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Could we please discuss capacity reductions to/from China here !

Last edited by warakorn; Jan 30, 20 at 6:48 am
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Old Jan 30, 20, 6:48 am
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Please be aware the list on the top consists of both forecasts and confirmed cuts.
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Old Jan 30, 20, 2:13 pm
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I think all predictions - made 4 days ago - will become true. Soon all fights in/out Mainland China will be cut.

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN1ZT1RZ
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Old Jan 31, 20, 8:01 am
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as predicted KLM has all halted its flight to Mainland China.
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Old Jan 31, 20, 9:37 am
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Originally Posted by warakorn View Post
as predicted KLM has all halted its flight to Mainland China.
So has Delta through 30 April, last flight leaving China on 5 Feb.
https://news.delta.com/delta-tempora...s-china-flying
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Old Jan 31, 20, 9:54 am
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So suppose some foreign national wants/needs to leave mainland China after about February 5th. What options are left? Mainland Chinese carriers such as MU and CZ to LAX? CX through HKG to LHR? SIN connections are out and it's not clear how long HKG will permit transit from mainland China originating passengers.
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Old Jan 31, 20, 10:31 am
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Originally Posted by warakorn View Post
I am not sure whether this topic is covered in other threads, as well. Please point me to them, if possible.

With the coronavirus outbreak many airlines are issueing travel waivers for China. "High yield" business passenger may be barred from flying to China by company policy.
Moreover, tour group travel from China seem to be have been suspended, as well.
Even without the corona-virus outbreak, judging on the recent low J-fares, I assume that PVG and PEK are fighting with overcapacity.

My prediction on route cuts:
- LH FRA-PVG (seasonal late night departure from Frankfurt)
- OS VIE-PVG CONFIRMED - IT IS CUT
- HO DUB-HEL-PVG
- EK DXB-PVG (cut of one daily frequency)
- BA LHR-PVG (cut of one daily frequency) CONFIRMED - IT IS CUT
- KL AMS-PVG (cut of the second daily) CONFIRMED CUT
- CZ FRA-CSX-CAN
- MU FRA-PVG
- CX FRA-HKG (permanent cut of second daily)
- CA MUC-PVG
- AY HEL-PVG (cut of the second daily)
- CA ARN-PEK
- LH FRA-NKG cut confirmed
- LH FRA-SHE cut confirmed

- HU PRG-PEK
- CA PEK-MSQ-BUD
- LH MUC-PEK cut confirmed
- CA LHR-PEK (cut of second daily)
- MU CDG-PVG (cut of second daily)
- MU LAX-PVG (cut of second daily)
- MU ORD-PVG
- UA ORD-PVG
- DL LAX-PVG
- MU YVR-PVG (cut of second daily)
... and many more
Originally Posted by warakorn View Post
So all BA flights from LHR to Mainland China (that means only to PEK and PVG) have been cut.
Originally Posted by warakorn View Post
LH wants to cancel all flights to China.
https://www.bild.de/geld/wirtschaft/...0544.bild.html

Am I missing something important here? After these three (+1 other post), there's a complaint - mostly on your own posts, it seems.

Originally Posted by warakorn View Post
Could we please discuss capacity reductions to/from China here !
It all seems rather confusing. May we ask you to explain what your point is ?
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Old Jan 31, 20, 11:30 am
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Originally Posted by MSPeconomist View Post
So suppose some foreign national wants/needs to leave mainland China after about February 5th. What options are left? Mainland Chinese carriers such as MU and CZ to LAX? CX through HKG to LHR? SIN connections are out and it's not clear how long HKG will permit transit from mainland China originating passengers.
Speculating, but the reducing availability of transportation options out of China (in addition to the infection) is probably why governments are advising their citizens against travel.

To your question, Qantas/JetStar/Air New Zealand may be options for now.
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Old Jan 31, 20, 11:49 am
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Originally Posted by TTT View Post
So has Delta through 30 April, last flight leaving China on 5 Feb.
https://news.delta.com/delta-tempora...s-china-flying
Add American to the list. Suspended through March 27. It's also been reported by major news networks that UA has suspended flights as well though can't find a formal press release from UA.

Newsroom - American Airlines Update on China Flights - American Airlines Group, Inc.
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Old Jan 31, 20, 11:55 am
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Originally Posted by onobond View Post
Am I missing something important here? After these three (+1 other post), there's a complaint - mostly on your own posts, it seems.



It all seems rather confusing. May we ask you to explain what your point is ?
Looks confusing, but that's because it was posted in another thread that was merged with this one. Mod didn't leave a note about the merge, hence the appearance that this guy is off his rocker.
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Old Jan 31, 20, 12:34 pm
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overcapacity?

The real question is whether (or not) commercial carriers have scheduled more flights to/from China going forward?
My guess is no. As one commentator said this week, China is too important a player in supply management for the Fortune 500. Also. its much easier to downguage e.g. replace a 787-9 with a 777. AC could do that YUL-PVG.
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