But you are illustrating exactly the difference between the quarantine in China and any semblance of that in the West. While you agree that some limitations on mobility are necessary, you question the rationale behind the firewall. Other people may have a different opinion and demand that the highways and airports be kept open. In the West, we can voice our concerns and question/blame the government because our culture respects an individual's self (as opposed to selfish) interests. In Chinese culture, there is no room for such discussions, particularly in public discourse, not to mention much sorrow for an individual's inconvenience -- or death -- so long as the disease is eventually eradicated and normal life can resume for everyone else.

Yup. I've seen very similar stuff from Chinese propaganda not too long ago.

This is a strawman argument. I never (not once) mentioned anyone blaming the government. Your friend, however, is telling you fairytales. She is incapable of telling you the truth because she has to stand by the national line that everything in China is great. Go China! I like China, otherwise I wouldn't have spent almost 5 years here, but if you expect a Chinese person to speak openly to an outsider about the current situation you are just being obtuse. They won't. In some cases, they can't. If she does indeed work for a government agency as you suggest, then there is no chance she would ever say anything negative to you about her situation, no matter the reality.

Heartbreaking death of Kai Chang, a movie director, and his family in Wuhan. (From last Sunday's bulletin in Chinese Church I attend)

"On New Years Eve, I obeyed the order and cancelled the New Year's Eve Banquet in the luxury hotel. I managed to cook myself, with my parents and my wife gathering together and enjoying the dinner. I didn't know the nightmare was coming. My father became very sick. We sent him to a number of hospitals for treatment, but there were no beds available.

Many people helped, but it was still difficult to find a bed. In disappointment we went home took care of him ourselves. A few days later he passes away.

My mother was exhausted and caught the coronavirus as well. She passed away, following my father. During the time when we served our parents the ruthless coronavirus attacked me and my beloved wife. We went to various hospitals and begged in tears, but no bed for us. Now we missed the opportunity to be healed. I write to you and my son in London: I been a good son, a caring father, a loving husband and an honesty man. Farewell! My love and those who love me."

Here is a newspaper article that describes his death. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...s-chinese-film-director-family-wuhan-covid-19

So if we assume that this virus has a case fatality rate of 2%, the chance that it would kill 4 people in the same family like that (assuming that each case is independent) is (0.02)^4 or 1 in 6.25 million. The interesting thing is that the guy's wife (whom I'm assuming is not related to him by blood) is in serious condition but the article doesn't mention that she died. Now I would think that either the strain that infected them was a lot more serious than others, it's pure 1/6.25M coincidence, or perhaps there's some genetic susceptibility to this?

Way OT but your calculation assumes even distribution of odds, which is flawed. Risk of death in older people much higher, let's say both parents over 80, in which case 15% each. And the chap himself around 1%. So the odds would be 0.15x0.15x0.01, which is about 1/4000 of all three dieing. Given it's likely more than 100k people have the infeciton in Wuhan, then it doesn't appear so unlikely after all...

Also, they failed to receive medical attention, which would actually increase those odds of death substantially...

tb

My BOLD,
So far in the Bay Area, Santa Clara County & City of San Francisco had declared "State of Emergency" due to Coronavirus outbreak.
Sorry, I know this is OT.
https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/...y-15083811.php

I was in touch with 2 contacts I have in Wuhan and apparently the situation is substantially better. This video shows a closed temporary hospital in Wuhan. Don't pay much attention to what government says, but the picture of the empty hospital is reasonable evidence of a better situation to me. Also, this link discusses improvement in the situation. https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/03/13/evolving-epidemiology-and-impact-of-non-pharmaceutical-interventions-on-the-outbreak-of-coronavirus-disease-2019-in-wuhan-china/ Many of the comments are very interesting.

There are reasonable reasons to believe that outbreak in US won't be as bad as some of the worst case scenarios.

Wuhan Jiayou!
https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...fff418c2de.jpg

Meanwhile, in Hubei's southerly neighbor:

China: par for the course

H5N1, please no!

Swine flu..Avian flu..Ebola..SARS..HIV..Covid19

Maybe better to go vegan worldwide.

Or at least lay off the pangolins for a while.

I just talked to a friend from Wuhan, and she had a number of interesting things to say. 1. The lockdown is enforced by community volunteers. If they see someone in the streets, they tell that person to go back inside. 2. They do their grocery shopping in a group organized method. Several people are chosen by their neighbors to get food for everyone. Everyone stays 5 meters away from each other in the stores. It does look like individualized shopping will be permitted soon, though. 3. The mortality rate varies significantly depending on the area and the quality of hospital care. Some hospitals are not very good. 4. For those people not allowed to return to their homes (For instance, Wuhan people stuck in Shanghai), the government pays their hotel bills. 5. She lost 2 elderly relatives.

Personally, when Wuhan went on lockdown, I thought that after a week or so, having observed Chinese people pay no attention to traffic rules, that it would explode with people rebelling. I was wrong about that. Their social distancing and lockdown seems to have worked, which is a very good thing.

Sorry to hear about the loss of your friend's relatives.

I wish US would adopt the policy of wearing masks in public.

Meiguo Jiayou!

Never expected the degree of outbreak here in US. What a complete failure.