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Coronavirus / COVID-19 : general fact-based reporting

Old Jan 27, 2020, 9:09 am
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Coronavirus / COVID-19 : general fact-based reporting

 
Old Jan 23, 2020, 10:35 am
  #91  
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Originally Posted by Stgermainparis
I couldn’t resist. From Daily Mail. : |

Revolting footage shows Chinese woman eating a bat
https://mol.im/a/7920573

That video pretty much explains why 19 million people are in quarantine.
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Old Jan 23, 2020, 10:47 am
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Originally Posted by anacapamalibu
That video pretty much explains why 19 million people are in quarantine.
Most sites (including Scientific American) are reporting that the virus may be linked to snakes. That article seems to suggest that the source is bats but nothing I've seen shows that this was confirmed.
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Old Jan 23, 2020, 12:15 pm
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Originally Posted by Stgermainparis
I couldn’t resist. From Daily Mail. : |

Revolting footage shows Chinese woman eating a bat
https://mol.im/a/7920573
You said it was revolting and I should have heeded.
It cannot be unseen.
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Old Jan 23, 2020, 2:29 pm
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Originally Posted by BuildingMyBento
China + illegal animal markets? You don't say?

I'm amazed the region (including ASEAN) doesn't have more coronaviruses, considering how valuable endangered species/tusks/ingredients for male "virility" can be.

Anyway, the bug has spread to Guangdong, too. HK border closure imminent? I know that mainland numbers to the HKSAR(S) has dropped, but there's still traffic.
That's unlikely to help, as the virus is already on both sides of the border. The only time we ever had a successful quarantine was when the Old World and New World were separated by the oceans and literally no one traveled across said oceans. But it only took a few Spanish conquistadors to introduce Old World diseases like measles and smallpox to the New World and once they did, there was no stopping the spread until they ravaged the whole population and the survivors had immunity. Today, the best way to stop viruses like this is through good sanitation habits, isolating people who are obviously sick, developing a quick test to detect people who are exposed but not yet symptomatic, and developing a vaccine. Sealing off borders has never really worked. Can you think of a case where it did?
https://www.vox.com/2020/1/23/210783...rus-travel-ban

Fortunately, this thing doesn't appear to have the contagiousness of the measles, but the things they're doing inside of Wuhan appear to be unhelpful. My wife reported that they apparently had a large public dinner with tens of thousands of people just 5 or so days ago. I wonder if this quarantine was a sort of knee jerk reaction to what they stupidly did less than a week before: at a time when researchers and medical workers are trying to isolate affected individuals and track down people they had contact with, they created a potential pool of tens of thousands of carriers in a matter of a few hours.
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Old Jan 23, 2020, 3:11 pm
  #95  
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Originally Posted by STS-134
...
Fortunately, this thing doesn't appear to have the contagiousness of the measles, but the things they're doing inside of Wuhan appear to be unhelpful. ...
I read somewhere that Wuhan is a ghost town, which means people are mostly staying home. This may slow down transmission rates a bit and at least buys some time to assess the situation and prep.
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Old Jan 23, 2020, 3:42 pm
  #96  
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Originally Posted by STS-134
. My wife reported that they apparently had a large public dinner with tens of thousands of people just 5 or so days ago. I wonder if this quarantine was a sort of knee jerk reaction to what they stupidly did less than a week before: at a time when researchers and medical workers are trying to isolate affected individuals and track down people they had contact with, they created a potential pool of tens of thousands of carriers in a matter of a few hours.
Apparently its an annual "potluck" dinner for 40,000 families sharing over 12000 home made dishes.

Wanjia Banquet

Îäşş°Ů˛˝Í¤ÍňĽŇŃ翪ąř 12600µŔĂŔζľŰŇ»ĚĂ-ÖĐĐÂÍř
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Old Jan 23, 2020, 3:51 pm
  #97  
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Originally Posted by STS-134
Most sites (including Scientific American) are reporting that the virus may be linked to snakes. That article seems to suggest that the source is bats but nothing I've seen shows that this was confirmed.
what are the chances that they ban these kinds of markets?

sounds like superstition drives demand for “exotic” animals to be eaten.

maybe if this was going on in rural villages with limited contact with the outside world. But things like Ebola didn’t originate from some modern metropolis.
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Old Jan 23, 2020, 3:53 pm
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Originally Posted by anacapamalibu
Apparently its an annual "potluck" dinner for 40,000 families sharing over 12000 home made dishes.

Wanjia Banquet

Îäşş°Ů˛˝Í¤ÍňĽŇŃ翪ąř 12600µŔĂŔζľŰŇ»ĚĂ-ÖĐĐÂÍř
Yikes.

And regardless of tradition, what they've done is basically the equivalent of having a bonfire and fireworks party after the National Weather Service has issued an extreme red flag warning.
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Old Jan 23, 2020, 4:01 pm
  #99  
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Perhaps I've missed it, but I haven't seen any discussion of just how long the Wuhan quarantine will last. Offhand, it looks like an issue not of days but of weeks, which is an extraordinary amount of time to block off a major city.
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Old Jan 23, 2020, 4:37 pm
  #100  
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Originally Posted by STS-134
Yikes.

And regardless of tradition, what they've done is basically the equivalent of having a bonfire and fireworks party after the National Weather Service has issued an extreme red flag warning.

Looks like there was plenty of time to cancel or reschedule the banquet.

Timeline

31 December 2019

The World Health Organization (WHO) is alerted by the Chinese authorities of a string of pneumonia-like cases in Wuhan, a city of 11 million people.

Patients are quarantined and work begins on identifying the origin of the pneumonia.

1 January 2020

The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) identifies a seafood market suspected to be at the centre of the outbreak and it is closed down.

What is coronavirus and how worried should we be?


Read more

9 January

The WHO says the outbreak in Wuhan was caused by a previously unknown type of coronavirus, a broad family ranging from the common cold to more serious illnesses like severe acute respiratory syndrome (Sars).

11 January

The Chinese health authorities report the first fatality as a 61-year-old man dies from pneumonia in Wuhan. They revise downwards the number of sick people to 41.

13 January

The virus spreads beyond China’s borders for the first time with a case emerging in Thailand, according to the WHO. The victim is a Chinese woman diagnosed with mild pneumonia who was returning from a trip to Wuhan.

15 January

China’s health commission says it cannot confirm human-to-human transmission of the virus but the possibility “cannot be excluded”. The next day a first case of the virus is confirmed in Japan in someone who had stayed in Wuhan in early January.

17 January

A second person, a 69-year-old man, dies in Wuhan, according to authorities. The same day, the CDC announces that it will begin screening passengers arriving from Wuhan at three airports: San Francisco, New York’s JFK and Los Angeles.

18 January Wuhan Banquet
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Old Jan 23, 2020, 5:28 pm
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Wuhan quarantine duration & peak

I heard initial reports of Wuhan quarantine for 28 days to reduce further widespread transmission outside Wuhan.
But Wuhan is simply too big and porous (bigger population than LA or NYC) to effectively lockdown despite police-military roadblock checkpoints and public transportation shutdowns. This does not include all those people who transited or left Wuhan prior to quarantine, to everywhere in China and overseas, with typical incubation period of 8-10 days.

https://udn.com/news/story/120936/4305238
This news story from Taiwan quotes Wuhan doctor stating peak period for Coronavirus cases will happen after lunar new year, but local Wuhan medical personnel prepared to defend against treating cases til May 1 holiday.
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Old Jan 23, 2020, 6:16 pm
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Originally Posted by wco81
what are the chances that they ban these kinds of markets?
I have no idea. I've been in China and gone to 1st, 2nd, and 3rd tier cities, but I've never personally seen a market like that, so I have no idea how many places like that there are. Even in the 3rd tier cities, there are plenty of supermarkets and that's where my wife's family does their shopping if they need to get food.

Originally Posted by 889
Perhaps I've missed it, but I haven't seen any discussion of just how long the Wuhan quarantine will last. Offhand, it looks like an issue not of days but of weeks, which is an extraordinary amount of time to block off a major city.
They're not even going to be able to keep the place sealed for 3 days at the rate things are going. Involuntary quarantines don't really work especially when people have the ability to communicate with the outside world. What they need to do is send all of the medical professionals and scientists in and make it clear that if anyone gets sick, the best chances of getting treated and surviving are right there in the city, as well as encourage people to take precautions, not gather in large groups, etc, to reduce contact rate. Ask anyone who thinks he/she has symptoms to come in for a checkup too, and monitor all individuals aggressively and prepare to provide medical care unless they are confirmed to not have the virus. Most importantly, the people have to trust what the government is saying and what the doctors are saying. Is that happening? Well, my wife read that some hospitals were refusing to test people for the virus and sending them home without any treatment.

If at any point people feel trapped and they think the treatment options outside are better than on the inside, they're going to leave. They can shut down roads, trains, and airports, but there's almost nothing they can do to prevent people from leaving on foot. If I were in a situation where I felt like my life was being threatened by staying, then I would leave on foot, call a friend or family member who has a car outside the quarantine perimeter, and tell him/her to pick me up and give him/her the coordinates of my location. So what they've done thus far is literally the exact opposite of what you need to do to get an outbreak under control. The US would probably have better luck trying to quarantine Manhattan, and only because it's an island. But if treatment options were better outside of the quarantine zone, there would still be a ton of people sneaking out via the East River and Harlem River, and I'll bet that a few would even make it across the Hudson. The only way to effectively force a quarantine on a city the size of New York or Los Angeles is to make people not want to leave.
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Old Jan 23, 2020, 6:29 pm
  #103  
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Whoever was gonna leave and had the resources to do so, they probably have done it, and some more may do. Many/most people don't have the resources/relatives etc. to leave (and go where?). It is easier to stay where you are, in your home, than leave. Same reason why many stay behind in the US even in major mandatory evacuations for hurricanes.

Some data from US mandatory evacuations zones show that only 35-50% of the affected population complied. Here you have the opposite government demands and resources (lockdown/quarantine), so I would expect that almost all would stay (unless services start to seriously collapse).
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Last edited by nk15; Jan 23, 2020 at 6:44 pm
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Old Jan 23, 2020, 6:40 pm
  #104  
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HK news say its bat --> snake --> humans this time (2003 SARS: bat --> civet cat --> humans). I have less gastronomic inhibitions about eating snake soup compared to a civet cat or bamboo rat pot.
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Old Jan 23, 2020, 6:58 pm
  #105  
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Besides banning them, they have to have a big public information campaign, get these people to drop these superstitions.

Impose fines, even prison sentences.

After SARS and now this, they can't be tolerating this foolishness.
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