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Coronavirus / COVID-19 : general fact-based reporting

Old Jan 27, 2020, 9:09 am
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Coronavirus / COVID-19 : general fact-based reporting

 
Old Feb 23, 2020, 10:57 pm
  #2566  
 
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[quote from deleted post redacted]

It is hard not to be skeptical about numbers released by the Chinese authorities given the initial cover-up and criminal negligence (regardless of the authoritarian control aspect).

In terms of the numbers regarding new cases, the truth is really quite binary - either the virus is out there in wild - in which case it is spreading and numbers will be increasing all the time, or the measures are having an effect - and numbers of cases are decreasing (whether or not to almost or actually zero, as in the case of Beijing the last two days, matters little here in regard to this form of argument).

Given the way that this virus has shown so far to spread it would be pretty much impossible to hide the former - and that certainly fits in with information I am getting from the grapevine here in Beijing.

In terms of mortality and morbidity, if this were a situation confined only to China, there may be an incentive to cover up the numbers. But now that cases are reported in many countries it will become very obvious if the mortality/morbidity figures have been massaged in any way.

It is of course possible that in Wuhan there have been a larger number deaths, with some hidden to cover-up mis-management of treatment. But in the context of your skepticism this is probably appropriate, as I am sure you are more interested in numbers that reflect clinical outcomes related to the virus rather than to bungled medical care. At the outset of the viral outbreak, numbers probably were covered up - maybe that contributes to the "various adjustments in counting" that have happened.

I'll just add that my wife (PhD in pharmacology from one of the top medical schools in Beijing) has a pretty wide network of classmates, and gets information from these sources regularly (some things get deleted, but people are smart enough not to just forward text-based messages as that triggers the interest of the censoring algorithms).

Actually while we were away on holiday in Bangkok at the end of December she also was forwarded a warning message about some "new SARS cases in China". She also kindly pointed out last night that my response to that was "well that's hard to believe" followed by a dismissive comment. It seems it may be a while before I live that one down...
karenkay, Hoyaheel, narvik and 2 others like this.

Last edited by NewbieRunner; Feb 24, 2020 at 2:03 am
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Old Feb 23, 2020, 11:00 pm
  #2567  
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[quote from deleted post redacted]

Around here our epidemiologists are saying: if you have no growth in cases in the last 14 days, then you are in the clear.

Which makes sense in my lay POV
I don't think they've got to that stage yet. So very ballsy.

Last edited by NewbieRunner; Feb 24, 2020 at 2:22 am
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Old Feb 23, 2020, 11:01 pm
  #2568  
 
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Good article about moving from containment to mitigation once pandemic is declared
https://techcrunch.com/2020/02/23/wh...pandemic-hits/
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Old Feb 23, 2020, 11:47 pm
  #2569  
 
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According to https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ Bahrain and Kuwait got their first cases. Wonder when Turkey will show up next...

And related question - do you have more reliable/accurate link than the above?
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Old Feb 24, 2020, 12:17 am
  #2570  
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Wuhan quarantine relaxations rescinded

Originally Posted by percysmith
Non-residents can exit Wuhan starting today

And residents can re-enter the city also

https://s.nextmedia.com/realtime/a.p...096&a=60634231

https://hk.on.cc/hk/bkn/cnt/cnnews/2...00952_001.html
Is today April Fools Day?!

https://hk.on.cc/hk/bkn/cnt/cnnews/2...00952_001.html

http://www2.hkej.com/landing/mobArticle2/id/2384525

Added 21:01: China Youth Post https://shareapp.cyol.com/cmsfile/Ne...iao337283.html

Last edited by percysmith; Feb 24, 2020 at 6:01 am
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Old Feb 24, 2020, 1:03 am
  #2571  
 
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Originally Posted by percysmith
Explain please for the rest of us.
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Old Feb 24, 2020, 1:23 am
  #2572  
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Originally Posted by invisible
Explain please for the rest of us.
I usually dont provide translations (Ill provide instructions to install Chrome instead) but someone I respect already asked for it.

Wuhan COVID Control Command transportation sub-command apparently issued the morning announcement (Notice 17).

Wuhan COVID Control Command headquarters rescinded the transportation sub-commands announcement (Notice 18).
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Old Feb 24, 2020, 2:55 am
  #2573  
 
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Originally Posted by invisible
Explain please for the rest of us.
From the Guardian UK's live reporting:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/li...jinping-update
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Old Feb 24, 2020, 3:42 am
  #2574  
 
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Originally Posted by invisible
According to https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ Bahrain and Kuwait got their first cases. Wonder when Turkey will show up next...

And related question - do you have more reliable/accurate link than the above?
I'm sure Saudi Arabia has cases but will they ever report it?
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Old Feb 24, 2020, 3:47 am
  #2575  
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Iran is a magical place, people there die before they even get infected…

44 infected officially, 62 of those are dead…

Can we send Andrew Yang there to teach them about math?
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Old Feb 24, 2020, 4:26 am
  #2576  
 
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Originally Posted by Global Adventurer
I'm sure Saudi Arabia has cases but will they ever report it?
What they are going to gain by hiding it - having huge amount of population infected?
​​​​​​​
Originally Posted by helvetic
Iran is a magical place, people there die before they even get infected…

44 infected officially, 62 of those are dead…
Guess you are referring to this https://apnews.com/32540d09ec101aac057660ef1b0aa970


Kuwait has been evacuating some 750 citizens from Iran and testing them as they enter the country after saying that Iran had barred its medical workers from testing travelers at an exit terminal in Iran, despite an agreement to do so.Travelers from Iran infected with the virus have also been confirmed in Canada, Lebanon, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain.

Last edited by invisible; Feb 24, 2020 at 4:32 am
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Old Feb 24, 2020, 4:33 am
  #2577  
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China issues Travel Advisory against US (due to Coronavirus-related racial discrimination)

中國呼籲遊客切勿到美國旅遊
http://news.now.com/home/international/player?newsId=381844
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Old Feb 24, 2020, 4:44 am
  #2578  
 
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Translated excerpt from previous post:

"The Ministry of Culture and Tourism states that Chinese tourists are treated unfairly in the United States and urges tourists not to go there."
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Old Feb 24, 2020, 6:02 am
  #2579  
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Originally Posted by percysmith
Not much more than the HK reports, except to add one of the Wuhan Vice-Mayors signed Notice 17, and CPG is really pissed off about it.
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Old Feb 24, 2020, 7:51 am
  #2580  
 
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- the documented recent discrimination case was happening in one hotel https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/14/us/hm...als/index.html
This case was already discussed at Travelbuzz
U.S. hotels caught on video refusing to allow Chinese guests for fear of coronavirus and GUWonder provided some insights who are hotel owners
https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/32093630-post15.html

Last edited by NewbieRunner; Feb 24, 2020 at 8:29 am Reason: Redact comment on mod action
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