AF Avoidance while maintaining UR transfer ability
 

I play the referral game with my wife and we share UR points to the max while trying to avoid nearly all AFs. We are also trying to stagger our premium UR card holdings so we can have the first year free in offsetting years(or at least more than covered by the bonus), refer the other spouse, then cancel at 13 months and get the fee credited. Then recycle 2 years after the last bonus. However, the recent change in only holding one Sapphire card really threw a crimp in my plans. Relevant dates as follows:

Me:
Chase Ink Preferred Recd 12/1/2016, bonus Recd 2/6/2017 Closed 1/20/2018
Chase Sapphire Reserve recvd 1/9/2017, bonus Recvd 3/31/2017 PC'd to Freedom 2/1/2018
Her:
Chase Sapphire recvd 12/1/2016, bonus Recvd 1/25/2017 PC'd to CFU 2/1/2018
Chase Ink Preferred Recd 9/15/2017, bonus Recd 11/15/2017, still open, $95 fee on current statement and bill due 11/1/2018

Clearly I didn't do a great job of staggering around the first of 2017, but that was when the 100K bonus for the Reserve card was expiring so I had to grab it.

I really want one of us to be holding a premium card so we can transfer UR points to Hyatt (seems like best hotel transfer value) during Ski season and/or book non-chain brand condos in ski-towns with UR points at the 1.25 ratio.

What are my options here? I need to either pay $95 statement balance or cancel/downgrade her Ink Preferred by 11/1.

1. If I cancel her card, I will essentially be without transfer/travel partner powers until 1/25/2019 when wife can apply for the Sapphire or Reserve card (2 years after previous Saphirre bonus), right?
2. If I pay the $95, that's 2/3 of the cash price of a room, and I don't earn UR points for the fee. Can I pay now and cancel in 2 months and get a pro-rated refund of the AF?
3. I can transfer 15-30K UR points to Hyatt now, then cancel, and at least we can book Hyatts for a few nights between now and early Feb?

Are there any other options I'm missing?

Also, if she sends me a Ink Preferred referral now then we cancel her card, can I still use the referral next Feb and her get the 20K referral points?

Only one Sapphire bonus every 48 months, as of last August.

Well, the obvious one that may not have occurred to you is being shutdown. You're pushing the envelope more than I would, for sure.

I'd probably transfer some points that you think you'll need in the next 4 months. Send yoursrlf a referral and then downgrade wife's CIP to an Ink Cash. There is no assurance the link will still work in 4 months, but if it does, she should get the points.

So one person closing one card and product changing another card would lead to a shut down? The post was for 2 different people, not 4 accounts for the same person. Although, even if it was all for 1 person, I don't think it would necessarily trigger a shut down unless something else was going on the OP didn't mention. The OP has to be under 5/24 to apply for the cards he/she is interested in anyway. From what I have read, there are still people getting approved for 4 or 5 Chase cards in a year if they start out at 0/24 or 1/24.

I doubt that the OP is at risk of shut down for closing one card and then applying for a different one 6 - 12 months later. If so, they would have shut me down already!

That's fair enough, but it's still more of a risk that I'm willing to take. Even if not likely, that's one possible outcome, so I stand by my original statement.

I think we've just decided to pay the fee with UR points and hold the card for now. 9500 UR points for the fee will be more than offset by the guaranteed 20,000 UR points in Feb she gets when I am able to use the referral offer from her account to get my next Ink Preferred card. I don't want to risk missing out on the 20K referral points from an inactive account.

I do not understand this decision. By your own reasoning 9,500 points are worth $118.75 minimum. Why would you spend $118.75 to save $95.00?

Because I'm short on cash and long on UR points this month.