Gambler

Have booked 100k into my MPO account with 3 months remaining of my membership year. I could easily fly the remaining 20k but with the falling standards of CX I'm inclined to not even bother.

I've read previously that CX may take into account your previous year's miles if renewal arrives and you didn't earn enough to qualify. Given i booked 200k last year (and similar amounts for the last few years) I'd thought I stand a good chance of renewal since i'm only 20k short. What does everyone think?

With the economy the way it is, i would expect to see substantially less Diamonds in 2009, does that mean the Diamond status and members will be better since it's spread more thinly (i.e. op-ups, redemptions)?

Surprised CX hasn't really done more promotional activity to encourage existing Gold and Diamonds to fly a little more.....if they offered double miles or something i'd definitely book my next flights on them rather than the competition.

cxfan1960

20K is quite a bit off, but 200K in each of the past few years is a lot. I am not surprised if they let you keep your tier level, but you will not know until then.

RA-wannabe

20k is NOT "a little". I would be truely surprised and shocked that CX allow you to renew diamond.

pacificboot

I feel that you may have a shot at DM renewal, even if u are short 20K, but again, it is something that you cannot predict.

For example, I know of two person. I got GD renewal with 32K Club miles and one got SL renewal with 15K miles. You just never know.

Maybe ask for the three month extention if you don't get lucky?

tedhl

I don't know the exact mechanism, but maybe they also take into account how you earned the 100k this year / 200k in previous years ? e.g. are these mostly discounted Y, full-fare, J/F full fare, RTW, etc ? i.e. real revenue contribution ? because, I suspect those 32k miles Gold renewal and 15k Silver renewal are high revenue (i.e. 32k was from say 2 long-haul F instead of discount Y)

sxc

I've also been wondering what CX is going to do this year for DM/Status renewals. During the SARS period when everyone stopped travelling, they auto renewed everyone. I think this current turmoil is much less dramatic since people are still travelling, but it will be interesting to see if CX is more lenient on renewal.

On my part, I am unlikely to requalify for DM by a long shot boo hoo hoo....

QRC3288

Your case aside, my gut says DMs won't drop off as fast as you think. Although markets really hit the fan in Asia starting in Nov 2007, and in the rest of the world say September 08, the economic impact is only finally being felt. I think the "edge of the cliff" for DMs will come possibly not until 3Q 2009, basically 6-12 months after financial job losses (due to the lagging effect of your status...aka even if people stop flying, if they just reset in say April, May, June etc. they still have status until it burns out at the reset date). Only my theory.

But also keep in mind when looking for op-ups and such that J and F are just going to be less booked anyway in 2009, so chances for op-up will probably be lower, not higher.

cxfan1960

I also think that DMs will not drop off very quickly. I am more than four months away from renewal, but all I need is a long-haul round-trip in those four months to re-qualify. My travel will decrease, but I am quite sure I will stay DM until March 2010.

Chances for J->F op-ups are likely to be lower, but that may not necessarily be the case for Y->J op-ups.

tedhl

I am in a similar situation...membership year ends March but I have 120k since July or so already - so the current travel cut/drop in our business doesn't affect me too much and I'll still have DM at least until March 2010 (and in fact my wife/daughter are happy I'm staying home more often now).

hopefully the economy is going to pick up again late next year so I'll have a better chance to get 120k in the next membership year...

QRC3288

Exactly, I think a lot of people will feel this. Granted, hearing your posts and guys like sxc I don't think are the "marginal" DM members...aka those doing like 120k or 130k a year. I think they are going to fall off by the drones, as whatever they are called "mileage runs" will be cut significantly and marginal travel or marginal business trips end. But it will take time - there is a huge lagging effect. The FIRST DMs (and GOs) even to feel the pain won't be until 1Q 2009.

However, I suppose there will be many more DMs and GOs sitting at home with their cards - kinda like you're doing. So I think the in-flight experience will definitely become more personal (dare I say improve?) for those of us who are unlucky enough to have to do more flying as this crisis gets worse, even though technically there still are a ton of DMs and GOs outstanding.

CXDM

I would have thought CX do something for the DM or GD to help them acheive the targets, but seeing how many there are today, CX wouldnt hurt to loose a DM here or there, especially if they are the marginal members (just scraping through the finish line).

Given that there will be less DM's to come, i still find it hard to see the recession when a DM friend of mind just saw a J>F op up on his flight to LAX. I would have thought this recession would ease the J cabin but it definately wasnt the case on yesterday's afternoon flight to LAX.

Alas I hope CX do help lower the level this year, as I too am a Marginal DM.

sxc

Don't know if it was a new config aircraft but if it was, less J seats compared to previous premium config, overselling of Y pushing some into J, and also pushing some into an empty F cabin.

If this is the scenario, seems like a lowering of revenue to CX to me...

brunos

I am booking in F LHR-HKG in two weeks time and CX252 and CX250 (747s) seat maps show 8 and 7 F seats allready occupied (out of 9). Only 4D left on my flight. Only a handful of J seats left and we are two weeks ahead. Does not look like recession times!

Gambler

Not sure about last few months, but up until August when i was still loyal to CX (after consistently bad experiences every few weeks and a response from CX senior management including Mr Tyler that was not really encouraging, i decided to switch all my business to other airlines where possible), some of the long haul routes were still quite full in the premium cabins but it's the regional flights that were really hard hit (ICN, SIN, NRT) with mainly half full J cabins.

I'm hoping this economic climate hits CX real hard and they wake up abit and become a little less arrogant about their business. In my last feedback to CX, I basically said i would no longer support them when the next downturn (i.e. now) really hit them (unlike when I continued to fly weekly even during SARS) and I'm finding sticking to it actually quite easy (i.e. other airlines are starting to grow on me).

tedhl

I'm very much in the same boat now, I've been flying everything else but CX lately unless I really don't have another decent choice (e.g. MNL this weekend). and I remember during SARS time when I was flying CX/KA weekly, sometimes I was pretty much the only one in J esp in short haul flights. and I also remember being one of the only 3 pax in the J upper deck of HKG-JFK with I think also 3 FA's, and then 1-2 days later coming back JFK-HKG with exactly the same set of crew in a similarly empty cabin - one of the best experiences I have had with CX. but those service levels are long gone and they are really arrogant now, I completely agree.