JW95

Now that travel restrictions and testing requirements for transit passengers are finally easing in HKG, I'm wondering what CX's plans are concerning their London operation? As of 5th June, LHR will be going to a daily operation, with three daily flights scheduled on specific dates. But what about going forwards, especially now that 80% slot utilisation is being reinstated? I've no doubt that CX are also very mindful of this, and don't wish to relinquish valuable slots at LHR, but they are still a long way off the pre-Covid 5 daily operation (Currently, there are up to a maximum of 2 flights/day to/from LHR as of late 2022/early 2023). London and the UK in general has always been a key market for Cathay, so I cannot see them wishing to (voluntarily) reduce their presence in London in the long term, but saying that, they're in danger of losing their LHR presence if 5 daily flights cannot be sustained once the 80% slot utilisation rules come into force. If they lose (some) of their LHR slots but wish to build up their London operation longer-term to what it once was, could we see CX reinstating LGW again? I realise LHR would be their preference in the first instance, but LGW was working well for them alongside Heathrow prior to its suspension, and quickly ramped up to daily, with the A359 being a good fit for the route. I hope it comes back, as it was always a pleasure using CX from LGW.

Also, are there any plans for Cathay to reinstate other European routes soon? (E.g. FCO, MXP, BCN) etc?

sxc

Can CX sell / lease the slots to someone else in the interim?

JW95

I'd be surprised if they haven't started leasing slots elsewhere, and as we all know, there are usually always carriers queuing up to get into LHR. I doubt they'd want to sell any, in the knowledge that it would be harder to build their LHR operation back up again in the longer term. If 5 daily flights really cannot be reinstated in the short-medium term, then selling slots would of course deliver the benefit in the form of additional capital for CX if they really needed it, and I've no doubt that GIP/LGW would be keen to get CX back if Cathay want to have a dual London airport operation as pre-covid.

brunos

You are very optimistic.

My guess, only a guess, is that we are at the lightest HK requirements. It won't be eased further in the foreseeable future. With strict pre-departure and arrival tests, plus expensive and strict 7-day hotel quarantine, the past traffic to HK is severely limited. That is tourists, MICE events and even business. Transit is very limited by the few flights offered by CX. And there is always the risk of flight suspensions. Finally, the health requirements on crews limit the number of flights that CX can offer.

I don't see CX using more than 2 slots in the coming year(s). It would not be sustainable to use 80% just to keep them. Whether they sell or rent them (if feasible) is another question.

NickB

Yes, leasing surplus slots seems like the most likely/sensible solution, I would have thought.

JW95

They may have no option but to do that at least for the medium term I think. Aside from just a max of 2 flights per day, capacity per aircraft is also down, as I'm not sure CX are sending their 77Ws to LHR anymore?

drivingflyingwalking

Cathay have been flying more than one or two flights a day, they operate several cargo only passenger flights on the 777, probably to try and hangon to the slots. But I agree I don't think they will be able to hold 5 slots.

pkpkpk

Yes, I did a few dummy bookings to check whether the 777 would be in use to London (from the recently published schedule to September). Could not see it on any dates to LHR that I checked. Concerns me as I have a redemption booking in F for late December ...sadly looking very likely that I will get downgraded (albeit we are a long way out) ...

brunos

CX will definitely operate a reduced schedule in December, compared to the current placeholders schedule.
Beware that many redemption awards have been rescheduled and downgraded to Y if flight cancelled. At least for non-AsiaMiles awards. I had a couple of F awards downgraded to J, and one to Y.

JW95

I'm very sad to see this, CX has had so much riding against it as of late Especially now with airlines like SQ ramping up their London (and wider) operations and getting back to normal. I really hope that CX will have a chance to be able to recover to what it was pre-pandemic, as I've had many wonderful journey's with Cathay. Could they not do what SQ have been doing up until recently and open up more 5th freedom flights as an interim measure to optimise their slot utilisation? (E.g. LHR-BKK-HKG/LHR-SIN-HKG?).

mr_botak

Well Heathrow is now limiting capacity over the summer, and it is hard to see the labour situation improving in the short to mid term so there may be flexibility. Anyway, it'll take more than an easing of nominal restrictions to lure any one back to HK I would think.

JW95

Good point - I'm just wondering what are HKG's long term prospects as a major transit hub it once was, given the current circumstances? It's a shame, as HKG has always been a joy to use and transit through. No doubt that a vast chunk of CX's traffic has now gone to SQ via SIN

JW95

CX has now started uploading S23 schedules for its European network, up until mid June 23. LHR is still being maintained at 2/daily, (CX252, CX250) but with the A359 in place of the 77W. Same thing is also being applied across other European destinations that were traditionally served by the 777, such as Milan. Other routes, such as FCO and BCN continue to be suspended.

Assuming this change goes ahead and there are no a/c swaps, this means that F will largely be absent from CX's European network next summer

Update: Looks like all remaining European services will be served by the A350-900, at least for the initial part of the summer season.

pkpkpk

Thanks for the updates JW95.

Can someone clarify: I have F redemption seats on CX255 in late December (booked through BA). CX255 on the day in question is showing as a 77W. Assuming there is the expected equipment swap to the A350, am I right to assume that at best I will be downgraded to J on that flight? There is no chance, for example, of being accommodated in F on Qatar or BA on that day or later? (forgive me if the answer to this is obvious)

Edit: given the high prices of flights generally and zero award availability for my destination, I'd rather know now and make alternative arrangements than wind up travelling in Y (a possibility suggested upthread)

Edit 2: F looks sold out completely for CX255 on date in question. Would CX sell out the entire cabin only to downgrade everyone later?

nomadabroad

Was booked on CX250 for Oct but noticed today it was zeroed out on some days (including the day I’m flying).

up till yesterday it was double daily 77W (CX250/252) but looks like CX250 have gone down to 3x weekly in Oct???

if they want more passengers to fly they need some sort of stability and not a roulette lottery of scheduling changes/cancellations