Recent survey and troubling implications

Old Sep 28, 20, 1:40 pm
  #1  
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Recent survey and troubling implications

I recently got an email from Cathay for a survey and participated in the process. The questions I answered in the survey were very troubling as it seems to be hinting at a drastic devaluation of the miles. Of all the questions I answered, they are all circling on two themes:

- Will I be willing to use 1.4 million miles to redeem for a US->HKG RT biz class? If not, would ~700k work?
- Would I be willing to pay ~USD 7800 for a RT J ticket?

These questions seem to be pointing to a possible destruction of the Asia Mile program if executed. I can understand some devaluation and price hike given the COVID-19 impact but to completely destroy the value of the program seems to be excessive. Wonder how will the credit card issuers who has been paying for the points react if this indeed is coming to fruition.

Does anyone else receive a similar survey?
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Old Sep 28, 20, 2:35 pm
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I got a survey last week which was focused on buying tickets using cash + points... The number of miles kept on changing to see how many miles I was willing to accept for a slight discount of the ticket... Don't remember the exact price and miles they asked, but they all sounded excessive in terms of the number of miles required...
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Old Sep 28, 20, 3:02 pm
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Originally Posted by tfung View Post
I got a survey last week which was focused on buying tickets using cash + points... The number of miles kept on changing to see how many miles I was willing to accept for a slight discount of the ticket... Don't remember the exact price and miles they asked, but they all sounded excessive in terms of the number of miles required...
Yes, it is the exact same survey but there were a couple of questions also keep asking if I am willing to use obscene amount of miles to get a ticket. Same idea being asked in different ways a few times. The cash + miles value is even worse than cashing out the points directly with Chase UR or Citi TYP as it is << 1 cent per point. The implication of this survey is troubling though.
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Old Sep 28, 20, 8:57 pm
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uh oh. may be time to burn some miles overpriced stuff in the Asiamiles store.
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Old Sep 28, 20, 10:27 pm
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Relax. This will be exploration of an "Any Seat" award structure where you can purchase any seat available for sale on the flight with miles instead of cash. Some of the US carriers and Qantas have had this for years. Any Seat type purchases are independent of the current redemption awards, which are inventory controlled.
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Old Sep 28, 20, 11:46 pm
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While I have no insight about this survey, what I can say is in the recent years, airlines have been switching to dynamic pricing instead of fixed price.

So to me, it is more possible that AM will go dynamic. But for ridiculous miles like DL? No.
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Old Sep 29, 20, 12:12 am
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There is no question that flying will be much more expensive in the future, both in terms of cash and miles. I wouldn’t be surprised to see huge changes at many FFPs. I think everything is on the table.
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Old Sep 30, 20, 9:29 pm
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Originally Posted by percysmith View Post
It currently has no motivation to increase conversion rates as no-one can currently burn miles. I am far worried when pax can fly away, and I'm looking at 300,000 AM redemption return to Japan.
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Old Sep 30, 20, 10:46 pm
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Miles are a liability on CX balance sheet.
Increasing the number of miles for awards means that the dollar liability will go down and the balance sheet will improve.
With CX on the edge of precipice, it is a small step to prolong survival.

It is also quite clear that the trend is dynamic award pricing. SUch surveys might attempt to find breakeven points for award availability at difference price.
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Old Oct 1, 20, 4:42 am
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Originally Posted by brunos View Post
Miles are a liability on CX balance sheet.
(As an accountant) I don't think practising accrual accounting is a high priority for airlines this year
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Old Oct 1, 20, 5:49 am
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Originally Posted by percysmith View Post
(As an accountant) I don't think practising accrual accounting is a high priority for airlines this year
You are right. I was just stating facts.

But CX is hanging by the thread. Without domestic flights and no reprieve on regional/longhaul traffic in sight, any little artifice that will lead to smaller reported losses might be of interest.
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Old Oct 1, 20, 8:15 am
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Originally Posted by brunos View Post
It is also quite clear that the trend is dynamic award pricing. SUch surveys might attempt to find breakeven points for award availability at difference price.
This has been my mantra since the 2016 keel-haul of the MPC programme.

Just call me Cassandra, only difference is I was judging the most ugly hag competition.
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Old Oct 2, 20, 1:52 am
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Originally Posted by Top of climb View Post
Relax. This will be exploration of an "Any Seat" award structure where you can purchase any seat available for sale on the flight with miles instead of cash. Some of the US carriers and Qantas have had this for years. Any Seat type purchases are independent of the current redemption awards, which are inventory controlled.
Similar to SQ's pay with miles feature - which offers horrendous value to the customer, of course!
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