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Covid-19 coronavirus - effect on Cathay Pacific

Covid-19 coronavirus - effect on Cathay Pacific

Old Sep 14, 2020, 12:25 am
  #1261  
 
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CX carry 35773 pax in Aug. dropped from 42000 in July.
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Old Sep 14, 2020, 12:49 am
  #1262  
 
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Originally Posted by HarbourGent
Agreed, HK postal rates have increased far ahead of inflation in recent years, The colonial era post office was a great legacy, very efficient and well run, but it is starting to lose its edge.
As with everything else in HK (sorry - couldn't resist twisting the knife).

Originally Posted by sbs2716g
CX carry 35773 pax in Aug. dropped from 42000 in July.
Probably affected by the 14 day hotel quarantine requirement from select countries. Interesting looking at the numbers of HK residents coming and going via airport -- https://www.immd.gov.hk/eng/message_...stat_menu.html
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Old Sep 14, 2020, 3:05 am
  #1263  
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In a typical day, 1,000 pax or fewer arrive at the airport. This is dreadful.
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Old Sep 14, 2020, 5:33 am
  #1264  
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Originally Posted by brunos
In a typical day, 1,000 pax or fewer arrive at the airport. This is dreadful.
More than (>1,400 for last three days https://www.immd.gov.hk/eng/stat_20200913.html)

I'm not deliberately nitpicking, but 1,000 would be still seem low compared to the 350 Sydney daily arrivals cap that Australians are crying bloody murder for
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Old Sep 14, 2020, 6:47 am
  #1265  
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Smile

Originally Posted by percysmith
More than (>1,400 for last three days https://www.immd.gov.hk/eng/stat_20200913.html)

I'm not deliberately nitpicking, but 1,000 would be still seem low compared to the 350 Sydney daily arrivals cap that Australians are crying bloody murder for
You are nitpicking
10 september was 707.
Anyway, even if 2,000, that would be a catastrophic number. August passenger traffic was 0.8% of usual.
With the current policy of keeping borders tightly shut and aiming for zero covid cases, Hong Kong and CX are slowly dying.
That can work for China which is a huge country and partly self-sustained. But for Hongkong?
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Old Sep 14, 2020, 7:11 am
  #1266  
 
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Originally Posted by brunos
You are nitpicking
10 september was 707.
Anyway, even if 2,000, that would be a catastrophic number. August passenger traffic was 0.8% of usual.
With the current policy of keeping borders tightly shut and aiming for zero covid cases, Hong Kong and CX are slowly dying.
That can work for China which is a huge country and partly self-sustained. But for Hongkong?
I will say the third wave of COVID-19 in Hong Kong exactly illustrates the necessity of strict border control. 100+ daily-new-cases has already made public hospital system overwhelmed. The elderly in the nursing home and their families were suffering. Also if you look at the second wave in Australia and New Zealand, it also caused by imported cases.

APAC countries are adopting strict border control methods. Problems of Hong Kong and Cathay Pacific are quite common. Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam and even Japan......they are all waiting for vaccines.
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Old Sep 14, 2020, 11:37 am
  #1267  
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Originally Posted by Reply1984
I will say the third wave of COVID-19 in Hong Kong exactly illustrates the necessity of strict border control. 100+ daily-new-cases has already made public hospital system overwhelmed. The elderly in the nursing home and their families were suffering. Also if you look at the second wave in Australia and New Zealand, it also caused by imported cases.

APAC countries are adopting strict border control methods. Problems of Hong Kong and Cathay Pacific are quite common. Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam and even Japan......they are all waiting for vaccines.
I admire your optimism about vaccine. Let's hope you are right. But that's OT.
But even with vaccines, Sars-Covid-2 will be with us for the coming year and probably more.

Let's for the moment assume that the situation remains about the same in the next 12 months.
If HK, or another country, manages to get to zero cases, then obviously new cases will have to be imported.
But can HK sustain a country lockup for so long and without assurance that the 2022 will not be similar? We now see that covid has been around for almost a year and still dangerous. It cannot be eradicated worldwide, so we have to live with it.

You mention Vietnam. Vietnam has decided to protect its production/export sector. It sacrifices its tourism industry which contributes 6% to GDP. Factories are working with healthy workers.
We could take the example of other countries with somewhat-diverse economy which can sustain to be locked for a while.
But what is the production of Hong Kong? Besides shipping, it is mostly international services. The border lockdown to international pax is devastating. All the international trust and expertise that has been accumulated over many decades is waning.

You mention a peak at 100 daily cases for 7.5M people and current numbers are 10 or less . Europe is very open and has many more cases per inhabitant. Even at its low, UK had some 500-1,000 cases for 68M. They are now at 3,000 per day (divide by about 10 to get the HK equivalent). And UK remained fully open to anyone, with a somewhat-lax home quarantine only for pax from high-risk countries. France has many more cases.


I am not saying that covid is not serious. As a vulnerable person, I am very worried. I hate to see some family dying in elderly homes. But as a very small economic base whose "exports" are primarily international expertise, I don't see how HK can afford to remain locked after six months of that regime.
Singapore is in a somewhat similar situation and they are creating "green lanes" with many countries. Netherlands, which is like Hong Kong and Singapore an important outpost for multinationals, has decided to exempt foreign business visitors from quarantine (for their business activities). It is obvious that Hong Kong wishes to stem the flow from some Asian high-risk countries, even HK residents. But it needs to open travel corridors, bubbles (whatever the name) very fast with major developed countries even if they have more covid cases than HK. The purely-medical objective has to yield to a more balanced approach. It might make me feel a bit less safe in Hong Kong, but it is needed for HK survival and certainly that of CX. CX is near collapse. I don't mean today but in a year time. It does no have the government support that SQ or other Asian carriers have.

PS: In most countries, positive cases without serious symptoms are simply asked to isolate at home , as opposed to HK where positive people are hospitalized and overwhelming the public hospital system.

Last edited by brunos; Sep 14, 2020 at 1:28 pm
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Old Sep 14, 2020, 7:23 pm
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Originally Posted by brunos
I admire your optimism about vaccine. Let's hope you are right. But that's OT.
But even with vaccines, Sars-Covid-2 will be with us for the coming year and probably more.

Let's for the moment assume that the situation remains about the same in the next 12 months.
If HK, or another country, manages to get to zero cases, then obviously new cases will have to be imported.
But can HK sustain a country lockup for so long and without assurance that the 2022 will not be similar? We now see that covid has been around for almost a year and still dangerous. It cannot be eradicated worldwide, so we have to live with it.

You mention Vietnam. Vietnam has decided to protect its production/export sector. It sacrifices its tourism industry which contributes 6% to GDP. Factories are working with healthy workers.
We could take the example of other countries with somewhat-diverse economy which can sustain to be locked for a while.
But what is the production of Hong Kong? Besides shipping, it is mostly international services. The border lockdown to international pax is devastating. All the international trust and expertise that has been accumulated over many decades is waning.

You mention a peak at 100 daily cases for 7.5M people and current numbers are 10 or less . Europe is very open and has many more cases per inhabitant. Even at its low, UK had some 500-1,000 cases for 68M. They are now at 3,000 per day (divide by about 10 to get the HK equivalent). And UK remained fully open to anyone, with a somewhat-lax home quarantine only for pax from high-risk countries. France has many more cases.


I am not saying that covid is not serious. As a vulnerable person, I am very worried. I hate to see some family dying in elderly homes. But as a very small economic base whose "exports" are primarily international expertise, I don't see how HK can afford to remain locked after six months of that regime.
Singapore is in a somewhat similar situation and they are creating "green lanes" with many countries. Netherlands, which is like Hong Kong and Singapore an important outpost for multinationals, has decided to exempt foreign business visitors from quarantine (for their business activities). It is obvious that Hong Kong wishes to stem the flow from some Asian high-risk countries, even HK residents. But it needs to open travel corridors, bubbles (whatever the name) very fast with major developed countries even if they have more covid cases than HK. The purely-medical objective has to yield to a more balanced approach. It might make me feel a bit less safe in Hong Kong, but it is needed for HK survival and certainly that of CX. CX is near collapse. I don't mean today but in a year time. It does no have the government support that SQ or other Asian carriers have.

PS: In most countries, positive cases without serious symptoms are simply asked to isolate at home , as opposed to HK where positive people are hospitalized and overwhelming the public hospital system.
Thank you for your reply.

You mention a peak at 100 daily cases for 7.5M people and current numbers are 10 or less . Europe is very open and has many more cases per inhabitant. Even at its low, UK had some 500-1,000 cases for 68M. They are now at 3,000 per day (divide by about 10 to get the HK equivalent). And UK remained fully open to anyone, with a somewhat-lax home quarantine only for pax from high-risk countries. France has many more cases.
The public hospital system in Hong Kong is already overwhelmed before the pandemic. Even the seasonal flu can make corridors packed up with patients. I think you might read quite a lot before.
https://hongkongfp.com/2019/02/09/ex...h-system-sick/
https://www.scmp.com/comment/letters...isis-hong-kong

The truth is that, the public hospital system of some European countries, especially Germany, is much more robust than that in Hong Kong.

Singapore is in a somewhat similar situation and they are creating "green lanes" with many countries.
Green lanes scheme in Singapore is not that 'green'. The highlight is the arrangement with Malaysia. Long-term visa holders in Malaysia are allowed to re-enter Singapore and can return home after a few months without 14-day quarantine. It is far from a 'travel bubble'.

To compare with, Hong Kong has been negotiating travel bubble with Mainland China and Macau. Without the third-wave caused by imported cases, Hong Kong should have already opened border with Mainland China and Macau.

Netherlands, which is like Hong Kong and Singapore an important outpost for multinationals, has decided to exempt foreign business visitors from quarantine (for their business activities).
Again, it is about the robustness of hospital system. And don't forget Netherlands is in Schengen area.

PS: In most countries, positive cases without serious symptoms are simply asked to isolate at home , as opposed to HK where positive people are hospitalized and overwhelming the public hospital system
I am not sure the 'most countries' include any country in East Asia. People in East Asia are living in crowded apartment buildings. Isolating at home means infecting his/her neighborhood.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amoy_G...#SARS_outbreak
https://news.rthk.hk/rthk/en/compone...0-20200211.htm
https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/...xpands-elderly
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Old Sep 14, 2020, 11:52 pm
  #1269  
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(Not sure should it be posted here or the HKG transit thread) CX wrongly denied boarding a Taiwan Special Entry Permit for COVID-19 Outbreak holder.


Last edited by percysmith; Sep 15, 2020 at 4:36 am
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Old Sep 15, 2020, 3:22 am
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@REPly 1984, I have little disagreement with the points you raised.
I would not to be in the shoes of any government today.

But essential travel must be allowed even if unpopular among many risk-averse HongKongers..
hina is a special arrangement for HK and for obvious reasons. To some extent that is also the case with Malaysia for Singapore. Singapore is working hard to establish green lanes for "essential travel" with China and Brunei and is working hard with 11 other countries. No more quarantine for those business pax, just quite strict surveillance.
I just hope that HK implement quickly such travel links, rather than blabla about it. This is not to save the HK tourism industry, but to save the HK international economic role.
Frankly, I am now quite pessimistic about CX survival with all its widebodies and no traffic for the foreseeable future.
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Old Sep 15, 2020, 4:51 am
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Originally Posted by brunos
@REPly 1984, I have little disagreement with the points you raised.
I would not to be in the shoes of any government today.

But essential travel must be allowed even if unpopular among many risk-averse HongKongers..
hina is a special arrangement for HK and for obvious reasons. To some extent that is also the case with Malaysia for Singapore. Singapore is working hard to establish green lanes for "essential travel" with China and Brunei and is working hard with 11 other countries. No more quarantine for those business pax, just quite strict surveillance.
I just hope that HK implement quickly such travel links, rather than blabla about it. This is not to save the HK tourism industry, but to save the HK international economic role.
Frankly, I am now quite pessimistic about CX survival with all its widebodies and no traffic for the foreseeable future.
I agree that we need to reopen for essential traveling, but I am just very pessimistic about travel bubble before we have vaccines.

The concept of travel bubble was brought by Australia-New Zealand. Then Thailand tried to open their border to some selected countries. Hong Kong also reached out to find suitable partners. However, is there any meaningful travel bubble operating currently? Only the Mainland China-Macau one. And don't forget Macau never had unlinked local cases(only imported cases and their close contacts). I believe we may face a looooooooooooooong way before Hong Kong government can build up travel bubble (at least for business travelers) with any one of those 11 countries, and maybe at that time, we already get vaccines.
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Old Sep 15, 2020, 5:38 am
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Originally Posted by Reply1984
I agree that we need to reopen for essential traveling, but I am just very pessimistic about travel bubble before we have vaccines.

The concept of travel bubble was brought by Australia-New Zealand. Then Thailand tried to open their border to some selected countries. Hong Kong also reached out to find suitable partners. However, is there any meaningful travel bubble operating currently? Only the Mainland China-Macau one. And don't forget Macau never had unlinked local cases(only imported cases and their close contacts). I believe we may face a looooooooooooooong way before Hong Kong government can build up travel bubble (at least for business travelers) with any one of those 11 countries, and maybe at that time, we already get vaccines.
Depends what you call travel bubble. SIngapore does have one for essential travel with Malaysia, China and a couple of others (not Hong Kong). In Europe there is a travel bubble with around 11 non-EU countries. UK has a fairly wide list of exempt countries (they call it travel corridors).

Vaccines are the hope, but uncertain that they will succeed.

O far we have several "theoretical" vaccine in Phase 3.
A large number of volunteers are inoculated with the vaccine and they check if there are side effects (the oxford university/astrazeneca has been paused because of a potential serious side effect) and how people react to it. Then the volunteers would need to be exposed to the virus to see if they are protected and how long the immunity lasts (could be just a few months even assuming nu virus mutation). The FDA states that a vaccine would be useful if it protects more than 50% of vaccinated persons, not a very high hurdle. A vaccine typically takes years to be tested and adopted. With fasttrack, preliminary results of sufficient generality will take many months. Widespread vaccination before that (assuming little side effects) would be a gamble.

Doing nothing until a vaccine has proven successful and can be produced and inoculated worldwide is silly. Limiting access to HK residents and mainlanders is badly hurting. Business travel has to reopen.

Last edited by brunos; Sep 15, 2020 at 6:40 am
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Old Sep 19, 2020, 11:23 pm
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CAD bans KA from operating KA734 KUL-HKG as passenger service to 3Oct, after it brought back 5 transfer pax from India via KUL on 18Sep http://hk.on.cc/hk/bkn/cnt/news/2020...00822_001.html
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Old Sep 20, 2020, 7:53 am
  #1274  
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Originally Posted by percysmith
CAD bans KA from operating KA734 KUL-HKG as passenger service to 3Oct, after it brought back 5 transfer pax from India via KUL on 18Sep ???5???????????????????10?3??????????on.cc??
The policy of transiting at KUL set by MY government make it possible for South Asian to fly DEL KUL and then transit to KUL HKG. KA has no control over their inbound flight to KUL, just boarding protocols for KUL HKG.
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Old Sep 20, 2020, 9:11 am
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Originally Posted by tentseller
The policy of transiting at KUL set by MY government make it possible for South Asian to fly DEL KUL and then transit to KUL HKG. KA has no control over their inbound flight to KUL, just boarding protocols for KUL HKG.
They can transit MY but cannot land.
So I imagine Air India Express has to check for onward tix and docs (including the PCR/Nucleic Acid test) to final destination, unless they want to attract fines from Malaysia.

Then KA checks again at KUL, before the pax can proceed to HKG. Otherwise KA can toss these pax back at KUL to deal with.
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