Covid-19 coronavirus - effect on Cathay Pacific
#1262
Join Date: Jul 2014
Location: SFO/HKG
Programs: ex-UA 1K, AA EXP, Hilton Diamond
Posts: 535
Probably affected by the 14 day hotel quarantine requirement from select countries. Interesting looking at the numbers of HK residents coming and going via airport -- https://www.immd.gov.hk/eng/message_...stat_menu.html
#1264
Ambassador, Hong Kong and Macau
Join Date: May 2009
Location: HKG
Programs: Non-top tier Asia Miles member
Posts: 19,671
I'm not deliberately nitpicking, but 1,000 would be still seem low compared to the 350 Sydney daily arrivals cap that Australians are crying bloody murder for
#1265
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Hong Kong, France
Programs: FB , BA Gold
Posts: 15,495
More than (>1,400 for last three days https://www.immd.gov.hk/eng/stat_20200913.html)
I'm not deliberately nitpicking, but 1,000 would be still seem low compared to the 350 Sydney daily arrivals cap that Australians are crying bloody murder for
I'm not deliberately nitpicking, but 1,000 would be still seem low compared to the 350 Sydney daily arrivals cap that Australians are crying bloody murder for
10 september was 707.
Anyway, even if 2,000, that would be a catastrophic number. August passenger traffic was 0.8% of usual.
With the current policy of keeping borders tightly shut and aiming for zero covid cases, Hong Kong and CX are slowly dying.
That can work for China which is a huge country and partly self-sustained. But for Hongkong?
#1266
Join Date: Jun 2018
Posts: 399
You are nitpicking
10 september was 707.
Anyway, even if 2,000, that would be a catastrophic number. August passenger traffic was 0.8% of usual.
With the current policy of keeping borders tightly shut and aiming for zero covid cases, Hong Kong and CX are slowly dying.
That can work for China which is a huge country and partly self-sustained. But for Hongkong?
10 september was 707.
Anyway, even if 2,000, that would be a catastrophic number. August passenger traffic was 0.8% of usual.
With the current policy of keeping borders tightly shut and aiming for zero covid cases, Hong Kong and CX are slowly dying.
That can work for China which is a huge country and partly self-sustained. But for Hongkong?
APAC countries are adopting strict border control methods. Problems of Hong Kong and Cathay Pacific are quite common. Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam and even Japan......they are all waiting for vaccines.
#1267
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Hong Kong, France
Programs: FB , BA Gold
Posts: 15,495
I will say the third wave of COVID-19 in Hong Kong exactly illustrates the necessity of strict border control. 100+ daily-new-cases has already made public hospital system overwhelmed. The elderly in the nursing home and their families were suffering. Also if you look at the second wave in Australia and New Zealand, it also caused by imported cases.
APAC countries are adopting strict border control methods. Problems of Hong Kong and Cathay Pacific are quite common. Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam and even Japan......they are all waiting for vaccines.
APAC countries are adopting strict border control methods. Problems of Hong Kong and Cathay Pacific are quite common. Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam and even Japan......they are all waiting for vaccines.
But even with vaccines, Sars-Covid-2 will be with us for the coming year and probably more.
Let's for the moment assume that the situation remains about the same in the next 12 months.
If HK, or another country, manages to get to zero cases, then obviously new cases will have to be imported.
But can HK sustain a country lockup for so long and without assurance that the 2022 will not be similar? We now see that covid has been around for almost a year and still dangerous. It cannot be eradicated worldwide, so we have to live with it.
You mention Vietnam. Vietnam has decided to protect its production/export sector. It sacrifices its tourism industry which contributes 6% to GDP. Factories are working with healthy workers.
We could take the example of other countries with somewhat-diverse economy which can sustain to be locked for a while.
But what is the production of Hong Kong? Besides shipping, it is mostly international services. The border lockdown to international pax is devastating. All the international trust and expertise that has been accumulated over many decades is waning.
You mention a peak at 100 daily cases for 7.5M people and current numbers are 10 or less . Europe is very open and has many more cases per inhabitant. Even at its low, UK had some 500-1,000 cases for 68M. They are now at 3,000 per day (divide by about 10 to get the HK equivalent). And UK remained fully open to anyone, with a somewhat-lax home quarantine only for pax from high-risk countries. France has many more cases.
I am not saying that covid is not serious. As a vulnerable person, I am very worried. I hate to see some family dying in elderly homes. But as a very small economic base whose "exports" are primarily international expertise, I don't see how HK can afford to remain locked after six months of that regime.
Singapore is in a somewhat similar situation and they are creating "green lanes" with many countries. Netherlands, which is like Hong Kong and Singapore an important outpost for multinationals, has decided to exempt foreign business visitors from quarantine (for their business activities). It is obvious that Hong Kong wishes to stem the flow from some Asian high-risk countries, even HK residents. But it needs to open travel corridors, bubbles (whatever the name) very fast with major developed countries even if they have more covid cases than HK. The purely-medical objective has to yield to a more balanced approach. It might make me feel a bit less safe in Hong Kong, but it is needed for HK survival and certainly that of CX. CX is near collapse. I don't mean today but in a year time. It does no have the government support that SQ or other Asian carriers have.
PS: In most countries, positive cases without serious symptoms are simply asked to isolate at home , as opposed to HK where positive people are hospitalized and overwhelming the public hospital system.
Last edited by brunos; Sep 14, 2020 at 1:28 pm
#1268
Join Date: Jun 2018
Posts: 399
I admire your optimism about vaccine. Let's hope you are right. But that's OT.
But even with vaccines, Sars-Covid-2 will be with us for the coming year and probably more.
Let's for the moment assume that the situation remains about the same in the next 12 months.
If HK, or another country, manages to get to zero cases, then obviously new cases will have to be imported.
But can HK sustain a country lockup for so long and without assurance that the 2022 will not be similar? We now see that covid has been around for almost a year and still dangerous. It cannot be eradicated worldwide, so we have to live with it.
You mention Vietnam. Vietnam has decided to protect its production/export sector. It sacrifices its tourism industry which contributes 6% to GDP. Factories are working with healthy workers.
We could take the example of other countries with somewhat-diverse economy which can sustain to be locked for a while.
But what is the production of Hong Kong? Besides shipping, it is mostly international services. The border lockdown to international pax is devastating. All the international trust and expertise that has been accumulated over many decades is waning.
You mention a peak at 100 daily cases for 7.5M people and current numbers are 10 or less . Europe is very open and has many more cases per inhabitant. Even at its low, UK had some 500-1,000 cases for 68M. They are now at 3,000 per day (divide by about 10 to get the HK equivalent). And UK remained fully open to anyone, with a somewhat-lax home quarantine only for pax from high-risk countries. France has many more cases.
I am not saying that covid is not serious. As a vulnerable person, I am very worried. I hate to see some family dying in elderly homes. But as a very small economic base whose "exports" are primarily international expertise, I don't see how HK can afford to remain locked after six months of that regime.
Singapore is in a somewhat similar situation and they are creating "green lanes" with many countries. Netherlands, which is like Hong Kong and Singapore an important outpost for multinationals, has decided to exempt foreign business visitors from quarantine (for their business activities). It is obvious that Hong Kong wishes to stem the flow from some Asian high-risk countries, even HK residents. But it needs to open travel corridors, bubbles (whatever the name) very fast with major developed countries even if they have more covid cases than HK. The purely-medical objective has to yield to a more balanced approach. It might make me feel a bit less safe in Hong Kong, but it is needed for HK survival and certainly that of CX. CX is near collapse. I don't mean today but in a year time. It does no have the government support that SQ or other Asian carriers have.
PS: In most countries, positive cases without serious symptoms are simply asked to isolate at home , as opposed to HK where positive people are hospitalized and overwhelming the public hospital system.
But even with vaccines, Sars-Covid-2 will be with us for the coming year and probably more.
Let's for the moment assume that the situation remains about the same in the next 12 months.
If HK, or another country, manages to get to zero cases, then obviously new cases will have to be imported.
But can HK sustain a country lockup for so long and without assurance that the 2022 will not be similar? We now see that covid has been around for almost a year and still dangerous. It cannot be eradicated worldwide, so we have to live with it.
You mention Vietnam. Vietnam has decided to protect its production/export sector. It sacrifices its tourism industry which contributes 6% to GDP. Factories are working with healthy workers.
We could take the example of other countries with somewhat-diverse economy which can sustain to be locked for a while.
But what is the production of Hong Kong? Besides shipping, it is mostly international services. The border lockdown to international pax is devastating. All the international trust and expertise that has been accumulated over many decades is waning.
You mention a peak at 100 daily cases for 7.5M people and current numbers are 10 or less . Europe is very open and has many more cases per inhabitant. Even at its low, UK had some 500-1,000 cases for 68M. They are now at 3,000 per day (divide by about 10 to get the HK equivalent). And UK remained fully open to anyone, with a somewhat-lax home quarantine only for pax from high-risk countries. France has many more cases.
I am not saying that covid is not serious. As a vulnerable person, I am very worried. I hate to see some family dying in elderly homes. But as a very small economic base whose "exports" are primarily international expertise, I don't see how HK can afford to remain locked after six months of that regime.
Singapore is in a somewhat similar situation and they are creating "green lanes" with many countries. Netherlands, which is like Hong Kong and Singapore an important outpost for multinationals, has decided to exempt foreign business visitors from quarantine (for their business activities). It is obvious that Hong Kong wishes to stem the flow from some Asian high-risk countries, even HK residents. But it needs to open travel corridors, bubbles (whatever the name) very fast with major developed countries even if they have more covid cases than HK. The purely-medical objective has to yield to a more balanced approach. It might make me feel a bit less safe in Hong Kong, but it is needed for HK survival and certainly that of CX. CX is near collapse. I don't mean today but in a year time. It does no have the government support that SQ or other Asian carriers have.
PS: In most countries, positive cases without serious symptoms are simply asked to isolate at home , as opposed to HK where positive people are hospitalized and overwhelming the public hospital system.
You mention a peak at 100 daily cases for 7.5M people and current numbers are 10 or less . Europe is very open and has many more cases per inhabitant. Even at its low, UK had some 500-1,000 cases for 68M. They are now at 3,000 per day (divide by about 10 to get the HK equivalent). And UK remained fully open to anyone, with a somewhat-lax home quarantine only for pax from high-risk countries. France has many more cases.
https://hongkongfp.com/2019/02/09/ex...h-system-sick/
https://www.scmp.com/comment/letters...isis-hong-kong
The truth is that, the public hospital system of some European countries, especially Germany, is much more robust than that in Hong Kong.
Singapore is in a somewhat similar situation and they are creating "green lanes" with many countries.
To compare with, Hong Kong has been negotiating travel bubble with Mainland China and Macau. Without the third-wave caused by imported cases, Hong Kong should have already opened border with Mainland China and Macau.
Netherlands, which is like Hong Kong and Singapore an important outpost for multinationals, has decided to exempt foreign business visitors from quarantine (for their business activities).
PS: In most countries, positive cases without serious symptoms are simply asked to isolate at home , as opposed to HK where positive people are hospitalized and overwhelming the public hospital system
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amoy_G...#SARS_outbreak
https://news.rthk.hk/rthk/en/compone...0-20200211.htm
https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/...xpands-elderly
#1269
Ambassador, Hong Kong and Macau
Join Date: May 2009
Location: HKG
Programs: Non-top tier Asia Miles member
Posts: 19,671
(Not sure should it be posted here or the HKG transit thread) CX wrongly denied boarding a Taiwan Special Entry Permit for COVID-19 Outbreak holder.
Last edited by percysmith; Sep 15, 2020 at 4:36 am
#1270
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Hong Kong, France
Programs: FB , BA Gold
Posts: 15,495
@REPly 1984, I have little disagreement with the points you raised.
I would not to be in the shoes of any government today.
But essential travel must be allowed even if unpopular among many risk-averse HongKongers..
hina is a special arrangement for HK and for obvious reasons. To some extent that is also the case with Malaysia for Singapore. Singapore is working hard to establish green lanes for "essential travel" with China and Brunei and is working hard with 11 other countries. No more quarantine for those business pax, just quite strict surveillance.
I just hope that HK implement quickly such travel links, rather than blabla about it. This is not to save the HK tourism industry, but to save the HK international economic role.
Frankly, I am now quite pessimistic about CX survival with all its widebodies and no traffic for the foreseeable future.
I would not to be in the shoes of any government today.
But essential travel must be allowed even if unpopular among many risk-averse HongKongers..
hina is a special arrangement for HK and for obvious reasons. To some extent that is also the case with Malaysia for Singapore. Singapore is working hard to establish green lanes for "essential travel" with China and Brunei and is working hard with 11 other countries. No more quarantine for those business pax, just quite strict surveillance.
I just hope that HK implement quickly such travel links, rather than blabla about it. This is not to save the HK tourism industry, but to save the HK international economic role.
Frankly, I am now quite pessimistic about CX survival with all its widebodies and no traffic for the foreseeable future.
#1271
Join Date: Jun 2018
Posts: 399
@REPly 1984, I have little disagreement with the points you raised.
I would not to be in the shoes of any government today.
But essential travel must be allowed even if unpopular among many risk-averse HongKongers..
hina is a special arrangement for HK and for obvious reasons. To some extent that is also the case with Malaysia for Singapore. Singapore is working hard to establish green lanes for "essential travel" with China and Brunei and is working hard with 11 other countries. No more quarantine for those business pax, just quite strict surveillance.
I just hope that HK implement quickly such travel links, rather than blabla about it. This is not to save the HK tourism industry, but to save the HK international economic role.
Frankly, I am now quite pessimistic about CX survival with all its widebodies and no traffic for the foreseeable future.
I would not to be in the shoes of any government today.
But essential travel must be allowed even if unpopular among many risk-averse HongKongers..
hina is a special arrangement for HK and for obvious reasons. To some extent that is also the case with Malaysia for Singapore. Singapore is working hard to establish green lanes for "essential travel" with China and Brunei and is working hard with 11 other countries. No more quarantine for those business pax, just quite strict surveillance.
I just hope that HK implement quickly such travel links, rather than blabla about it. This is not to save the HK tourism industry, but to save the HK international economic role.
Frankly, I am now quite pessimistic about CX survival with all its widebodies and no traffic for the foreseeable future.
The concept of travel bubble was brought by Australia-New Zealand. Then Thailand tried to open their border to some selected countries. Hong Kong also reached out to find suitable partners. However, is there any meaningful travel bubble operating currently? Only the Mainland China-Macau one. And don't forget Macau never had unlinked local cases(only imported cases and their close contacts). I believe we may face a looooooooooooooong way before Hong Kong government can build up travel bubble (at least for business travelers) with any one of those 11 countries, and maybe at that time, we already get vaccines.
#1272
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Hong Kong, France
Programs: FB , BA Gold
Posts: 15,495
I agree that we need to reopen for essential traveling, but I am just very pessimistic about travel bubble before we have vaccines.
The concept of travel bubble was brought by Australia-New Zealand. Then Thailand tried to open their border to some selected countries. Hong Kong also reached out to find suitable partners. However, is there any meaningful travel bubble operating currently? Only the Mainland China-Macau one. And don't forget Macau never had unlinked local cases(only imported cases and their close contacts). I believe we may face a looooooooooooooong way before Hong Kong government can build up travel bubble (at least for business travelers) with any one of those 11 countries, and maybe at that time, we already get vaccines.
The concept of travel bubble was brought by Australia-New Zealand. Then Thailand tried to open their border to some selected countries. Hong Kong also reached out to find suitable partners. However, is there any meaningful travel bubble operating currently? Only the Mainland China-Macau one. And don't forget Macau never had unlinked local cases(only imported cases and their close contacts). I believe we may face a looooooooooooooong way before Hong Kong government can build up travel bubble (at least for business travelers) with any one of those 11 countries, and maybe at that time, we already get vaccines.
Vaccines are the hope, but uncertain that they will succeed.
O far we have several "theoretical" vaccine in Phase 3.
A large number of volunteers are inoculated with the vaccine and they check if there are side effects (the oxford university/astrazeneca has been paused because of a potential serious side effect) and how people react to it. Then the volunteers would need to be exposed to the virus to see if they are protected and how long the immunity lasts (could be just a few months even assuming nu virus mutation). The FDA states that a vaccine would be useful if it protects more than 50% of vaccinated persons, not a very high hurdle. A vaccine typically takes years to be tested and adopted. With fasttrack, preliminary results of sufficient generality will take many months. Widespread vaccination before that (assuming little side effects) would be a gamble.
Doing nothing until a vaccine has proven successful and can be produced and inoculated worldwide is silly. Limiting access to HK residents and mainlanders is badly hurting. Business travel has to reopen.
Last edited by brunos; Sep 15, 2020 at 6:40 am
#1273
Ambassador, Hong Kong and Macau
Join Date: May 2009
Location: HKG
Programs: Non-top tier Asia Miles member
Posts: 19,671
CAD bans KA from operating KA734 KUL-HKG as passenger service to 3Oct, after it brought back 5 transfer pax from India via KUL on 18Sep http://hk.on.cc/hk/bkn/cnt/news/2020...00822_001.html
#1274
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: Earth. Residency:HKG formerly:YYZ
Programs: CX, DL, Nexus/GE, APEC
Posts: 10,659
CAD bans KA from operating KA734 KUL-HKG as passenger service to 3Oct, after it brought back 5 transfer pax from India via KUL on 18Sep ???5???????????????????10?3??????????on.cc??
#1275
Ambassador, Hong Kong and Macau
Join Date: May 2009
Location: HKG
Programs: Non-top tier Asia Miles member
Posts: 19,671
So I imagine Air India Express has to check for onward tix and docs (including the PCR/Nucleic Acid test) to final destination, unless they want to attract fines from Malaysia.
Then KA checks again at KUL, before the pax can proceed to HKG. Otherwise KA can toss these pax back at KUL to deal with.