Cathay Inbound traffic down 38% in August

Old Sep 11, 19, 5:51 am
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Cathay Inbound traffic down 38% in August

https://news.cathaypacific.com/catha...or-august-2019

Numbers are a bit confusing. Total pax dropped 11.3% Aug 19 from Aug 18 and much worse for premium classes. Cargo fell 14%.
I am unsure how that is consistent with a drop of 38% inbound HK and 12% outbound HK. I guess transit pax were less affected.
Of course traffic from China is the most affected.

Cuts will shortly be announced.

As a frequent traveler to/from Europe, I am surprised by the high fares currently charged from EU in premium cabins. In the past couple of years CX has almost ongoing sales for J and F. In the past couple of months these attractive deals have fully disappeared. That is not how CX will reduce the huge drop in demand in premium cabin.
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Old Sep 11, 19, 6:06 am
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Booked RGN-HKG-YVR and back for October yesterday, I class on all segments. Around HK$28K which is what Iíd expect pre-CX crisis. Wondering the logic behind the revenue teamís pricing decisions.
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Old Sep 11, 19, 6:21 am
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Originally Posted by CBR922 View Post
Booked RGN-HKG-YVR and back for October yesterday, I class on all segments. Around HK$28K which is what Iíd expect pre-CX crisis. Wondering the logic behind the revenue teamís pricing decisions.
ex hkg is nearly 40k they continue to rape their customers...but its ok... got myself U seat to YVR so they have 1 less seat to use to rape others

the fall in pax is unavoidable to external forces. but if CX really wanted they can do what MH did after 2 planes disappeared. i.e. CUT the BLOODY price... money talks. if they slashed all theit ex.hkg J fares by half to be more consistent with comp, there are enough affluent segment in hk that will lift those fares

so for now let CX live in their lalala world. level of sympathy, none, not for political reason but due to commercial stupidity
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Old Sep 11, 19, 6:40 am
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Originally Posted by brunos View Post
https://news.cathaypacific.com/catha...or-august-2019

Numbers are a bit confusing. Total pax dropped 11.3% Aug 19 from Aug 18 and much worse for premium classes. Cargo fell 14%.
I am unsure how that is consistent with a drop of 38% inbound HK and 12% outbound HK. I guess transit pax were less affected.
Of course traffic from China is the most affected.

Cuts will shortly be announced.

As a frequent traveler to/from Europe, I am surprised by the high fares currently charged from EU in premium cabins. In the past couple of years CX has almost ongoing sales for J and F. In the past couple of months these attractive deals have fully disappeared. That is not how CX will reduce the huge drop in demand in premium cabin.
Volume and pax carried are different since volume is likely measured by RPK, which is a function not only of passengers but also distance travelled.
Given the typhoon and protest related cancellations affected far more near-range flights than long distance flights, it makes sense that RPK fell more than pax carried.

Hoping this might result in better deals on premium classes going forward!
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Old Sep 11, 19, 7:04 am
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Speaking of EU flights, even BA is having sale in premium classes and costs around $19K. Iíd not be surprised if the no. of pax on CX dropped especially under the current circumstances in HKG.
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Old Sep 11, 19, 7:15 am
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Originally Posted by CBR922 View Post
Booked RGN-HKG-YVR and back for October yesterday, I class on all segments. Around HK$28K which is what Iíd expect pre-CX crisis. Wondering the logic behind the revenue teamís pricing decisions.
Responding to my own rhetorical question. Found out that the decline in traffic mostly driven by the China market where ASK -9% and RPK -28%. Other geographical markets broadly flat / mildly negative.

By that logic, ex-China to HKG to YVR should be much cheaper. Indeed a quick search supports this hypothesis ó XIY-HKG-YVR and return in business down to HK$16K for October travel!
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Old Sep 11, 19, 9:28 am
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Originally Posted by CBR922 View Post
By that logic, ex-China to HKG to YVR should be much cheaper. Indeed a quick search supports this hypothesis ó XIY-HKG-YVR and return in business down to HK$16K for October travel!
Well worth buying a burner smartphone for
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Old Sep 11, 19, 9:47 am
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MH is a different case. For the difficulty suffered by CX, people are not willing to travel to Hong Kong due to the protests instead of Cathay's poor reputation. I hope you can tell the difference between these two. You can not ease the worry of safety or stop the protests in Hong Kong by cutting the price of airfare.
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Old Sep 11, 19, 10:46 am
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Increased fares (in premium cabins) are actually a fairly logical consequence of the lower demand; since it is very likely that those that are still traveling to HK have a very good reason (read: "must travel"; business trips, etc.) to go, they are not price sensitive and they (or their employers) will pay whatever fares CX has loaded. Leisure travelers with an increased price sensitivity are likely avoiding HK at the moment anyway, so whether prices are high or low won't affect their decision much.

This is just a revenue management tactic to make sure the fewer pax that are flying are making up the lost revenue from the ones that aren't.
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Old Sep 11, 19, 7:11 pm
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So the fares are still high for the long haul sectors? I was hoping that they may drastically reduce the fares.
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Old Sep 11, 19, 9:05 pm
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“Given the current significant decline in forward bookings for the remainder of the year, we will make some short-term tactical measures such as capacity realignments. Specifically, we are reducing our capacity growth such that it will be slightly down year-on-year for the 2019 winter season (from end October 2019 to end March 2020) versus our original growth plan of more than 6% for the period.”

For now, by Routesonline Cathay has cut several flights during 19/20 winter:

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38...as-of-11sep19/
Cathay Pacific in the last few days filed inventory changes, as selected flights closed for reservation during Northern winter 2019/20 season. As of 11SEP19, inventory changes for winter 2019/20 season (27OCT19 – 28MAR20) as follows.

Hong Kong – Dublin eff 27OCT19 4 weekly service closed for reservation
Hong Kong – Frankfurt eff 01NOV19 CX283/282 closed for reservation (Except Christmas/New Year period)
Hong Kong – Paris CDG eff 27OCT19 3 weekly CX279/278 closed for reservation (Except Christmas/New Year period)
Hong Kong – New York JFK eff 29OCT19 CX846/845 3 of 7 weekly closed for reservation (Overall nonstop showing 18 out of 21 available for booking)
Hong Kong – Vancouver eff 29OCT19 3 weekly CX856/859 (A350-900XWB) closed for reservation (Overall reduce from 17 to 14 weekly)
Hong Kong – Washington Dulles eff 30OCT19 1 of 5 weekly closed for reservation

Other routes also see reservation closed on selected days or dates throughout winter season.

Following Cathay Dragon service also sees closure of reservation.

Hong Kong – Beijing 27OCT19 – 20MAR20 KA996/975 closed for reservation
Hong Kong – Medan Kuala Namu 26OCT19 – 28MAR20 Reservation closed
Hong Kong – Tokyo Haneda eff 04NOV19 Reservation closed

All changes listed above remain subject to change.

Last edited by Reply1984; Sep 11, 19 at 9:17 pm
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Old Sep 11, 19, 9:12 pm
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When do winter 20 end? booked on 846 in March..
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Old Sep 11, 19, 9:21 pm
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Originally Posted by pbd456 View Post
When do winter 20 end? booked on 846 in March..
From post 11: "end March 2020"
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Old Sep 11, 19, 9:34 pm
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one thing is for sure though: A class booking ex SGN is holding strong. No signs of any weakness there...
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Old Sep 11, 19, 9:49 pm
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Originally Posted by sparkj View Post

Hoping this might result in better deals on premium classes going forward!
now that you mention it...

Just noticed this morning when booking on my regular route SGN -HKG that are now offering I class at about US$900. Normally cheapest business has been D at about US$1,2xx and J is like US$2,2xx. Also looks like D pricing also reduced slightly to $1050
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