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Cathay Pacific---Will its onerous path lead to bankruptcy?

Cathay Pacific---Will its onerous path lead to bankruptcy?

Old Aug 28, 19, 6:44 am
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Cathay Pacific---Will its onerous path lead to bankruptcy?

What does everyone think with the China's government's interference, unhappy and indiscriminate firing of employees,sabotage, and the current turmoil does Cathay survive these turbulent times? Also share price is tanking...

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKCN1VH0XD

My main concern is all the Asia miles I accumulated, will they go "poof" if Cathay goes down...

Last edited by eagle215; Aug 28, 19 at 12:40 pm Reason: add info, grammer
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Old Aug 28, 19, 8:51 am
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One feeling I have reading recent CX FT posts: while certainly there are challenges facing the airline, take a longer term view and don't buy into sensationalism and panic. I also wouldn't call their share price tanking.
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Old Aug 28, 19, 12:01 pm
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Originally Posted by eagle215 View Post
What does everyone think with the China's government's interference, unhappy and indiscriminate firing of employees,sabotage, and the current turmoil does Cathay survive these turbulent times? Also share price is tanking...

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKCN1VH0XD

My main concern is all the Asian miles I accumulated, will they go "poof" if Cathay goes down...
Can't say anything about long run, but CX's financial state is far from any near-term bankruptcy. Also, it is Asia Miles, not Asian.
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Old Aug 28, 19, 12:25 pm
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CX will never bankrupt because of this turmoil. Air China has about 30% stake of CX. So in the worst case, CX simply becomes another NX (Air Macau).

Asia Miles will simply become PhoenixMiles.
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Old Aug 28, 19, 12:48 pm
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What I fear is not a bankruptcy of CX in the near future, but this incident would be the beginning of a long slope to its downfall, until everything apart from the CX name is lost.
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Old Aug 28, 19, 1:26 pm
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Air China wanted to buy off CX, Swire asked for a very high price.
What ever China gov did was trying to force Swire to sell CX at a lower price.
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Old Aug 28, 19, 5:31 pm
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Can CX survive a Syrian style civil war?
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Old Aug 28, 19, 6:11 pm
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Isn't Asia miles a separate legal entity from CX and quite profitable? Worst case, I would imagine CX would sell that part, and the miles would still be valid to redeem on other airlines, etc.. Of course, it will probably be severely devalued by then...
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Old Aug 28, 19, 6:17 pm
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Originally Posted by eagle215 View Post
What does everyone think with the China's government's interference, unhappy and indiscriminate firing of employees,sabotage, and the current turmoil does Cathay survive these turbulent times? Also share price is tanking...

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKCN1VH0XD

My main concern is all the Asia miles I accumulated, will they go "poof" if Cathay goes down...
How could it go bankrupt when its second largest shareholder is standing by to come to the rescue?
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Old Aug 28, 19, 10:22 pm
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Originally Posted by moondog View Post
How could it go bankrupt when its second largest shareholder is standing by to come to the rescue?
Where's the evidence that Air China wants to rescue CX rather than just gut it, acquire the name and start afresh?
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Old Aug 28, 19, 10:39 pm
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I am not sure about Air China, but Qatar Airways seem to be happy with their investment in CX. They would also be another party with the deep pockets to buy off Swire.
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Old Aug 28, 19, 11:07 pm
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Originally Posted by sleeper.agent View Post
I am not sure about Air China, but Qatar Airways seem to be happy with their investment in CX. They would also be another party with the deep pockets to buy off Swire.

That would be an error. The Chinese liability is too much to stomach.
A word from a tyrannical regime could turn their investment negative.

I would be looking to get out ASAP if I was Qatar. No one needs to worry about Chinese nonsense with their money.
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Old Aug 28, 19, 11:50 pm
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Originally Posted by Isochronous View Post
Where's the evidence that Air China wants to rescue CX rather than just gut it, acquire the name and start afresh?
I don't have a crystal ball, but TMK they've let NX remain fairly autonomous, and I see no reason why owning a larger stake in CX would be any different. CA management actually isn't stupid.
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Old Aug 29, 19, 12:40 am
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If Cathay goes bankrupt, it means economic conditions are so bad in Hong Kong/Greater China that other businesses will meet the same fate.

It will be interesting to see if Cathay will be able to continue to attract expat flight crews.
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Old Aug 29, 19, 1:03 am
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Originally Posted by pbd456 View Post
Can CX survive a Syrian style civil war?
It's unlikely to go that far. Once the PLA steps in, the protests will be over.
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