Originally Posted by Visconti

Most people make decisions based on emotion, then justified by logic. I'll use a gambling analogy here. I recall many years ago on a Roulette table where we had about 8 Reds in succession. Of course, the mathemtical each successive red above 4 were unlikely and heading towards astronomical at around 8. Naturally, most would bet black after the first 4 reds and doubling up (the Martingale flaw) assuming the odds would mean the next spin would be overwhelmingly black, simply because in the long run, it's a 50/50 split between red and black.

Here's what they missed. Experienced gamblers, or those with real world experience, would realize instinctively that the odds are so slim we'd have so many reds in succession, there must be something else at play. The way the dealer spins the wheel. An imbalance favoring red. Whatever. So, the smart gamblers kept betting on red until they closed the table.

When an event occurs, ignore it. If it occurs again, be wary. A third time, regardless, avoid like the plague. Whether the occurrence is caused by bad luck or sabotage is irrelevant, only that one should avoid it. HK would be well served to remember this. If these protests and disruptions continue, the outside world isn't going to give a rat's a** for your cause, and only care about the risks and will chose not to visit or "cash in their chips" and go home or to Singapore.

Originally Posted by Doraemat

Yes it's small but why should I subject myself to unnecessary risk? If it is avoidable and it isn't too costly or inconvenient then why not avoid the risk?

Originally Posted by Doraemat

I'm not so sure that the protests will do as much long term damage as the current selective enforcement of laws will.

Originally Posted by Doraemat

The only things that Hong Kong has going for it compared to other Chinese cities is the rule of law and if that disappears, you're right, Singapore looks a lot more attractive.