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Old Aug 10, 2019, 6:54 pm
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Last edit by: percysmith
This thread is to discuss the facts and practical implications of the China ruling on airspace and Cathay crew flying through the airspace.

For non-CX impact on travel to HK, please go to this thread in HK/Macau https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/hong...ns-travel.html

If you would like to discuss the political motivations or opinions on this, please go to this thread in OMNI/PR https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/omni...-protests.html
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CX Banned (kind of) by China

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Old Aug 9, 2019, 7:20 am
  #16  
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Curiously, Hong Kong Airlines (many of whose staff have undoubtedly also taken part in the protests) isn't subject to this ruling.

Now I wonder why that could be?

Oh yes, it's owned by the CCP, on the verge of bankruptcy, and would desperately like to take over CX's China business!

Last edited by christep; Aug 9, 2019 at 7:33 am Reason: typo
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Old Aug 9, 2019, 7:33 am
  #17  
 
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This will be worse than the fuel hedging loss of CX.
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Old Aug 9, 2019, 7:35 am
  #18  
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My expectation is that Swire will succumb to this extortion, and sell their shares at a fire sale price to Air China. I guess the shares will be down 30% at least on Monday.
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Last edited by christep; Aug 9, 2019 at 8:10 am
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Old Aug 9, 2019, 7:46 am
  #19  
 
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There is major power struggle (Xi's and Jiang's clan) within the Chinese Communist Party, hence the Hong Kong fiasco the past 2 months and the constant contradicting news from China.

My take on this ban is give it a few hours, someone from the other side of the power struggle with pull the notice and reverse it.
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Old Aug 9, 2019, 7:55 am
  #20  
 
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1) Is China including KA too or just CX?
*Didn't see a word mentioned about KA in that announcement...
Apologies, I suck at reading simplified.

2) FIR or just actual airspace?
Banning SYX FIR would create quite a headache for CX for SE Asia, Subcontinent traffic too

Using A1 instead the usual A202 isn't the end of the world, but if A1 and L642 are part of the banned list, then OUCH!

3) Have any one of us actually met a FA that likes flying Mainland routes?
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Old Aug 9, 2019, 8:06 am
  #21  
 
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Didn't see a single word of "ban" from this translation, it is just a warning...

Originally Posted by christep
Here's a Google Translate of the CAAC link above:
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Old Aug 9, 2019, 8:09 am
  #22  
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But at least 2 million HongKongers have taken part in the protests so far, so that means probably one third of Cathay's crews at least. The CCP undoubtedly has access to CCTV, mobile phone, and Octopus records, so they know who those people are.

It's a rostering nightmare to try to crew the 60(?)% of CX/KA's flights that touch CCP airspace only with crews who have never taken part in any protest.
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Old Aug 9, 2019, 8:13 am
  #23  
 
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Originally Posted by christep
But at least 2 million HongKongers have taken part in the protests so far, so that means probably one third of Cathay's crews at least.
No, that one was legal. However, today's airport protest is illegal. Everyone there caught by camera is toast?
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Old Aug 9, 2019, 8:15 am
  #24  
 
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Originally Posted by christep
Wouldn't we all love Cathay simply to say "f**k you", cancel all flights to China and reroute all the rest away from their airspace?

At the very least I hope that all self-respecting CX/KA crew will call in sick if rostered to China on the grounds that it is not a safe destination for them to fly to.

And this is EXACTLY the point of the protests against the Extradition Bill. Now we see what "Rule By Law" means in China.
Closing off airspace is almost always big disaster to global aviation (if China going nuts and ban all HKG flights to use their airspace), and will led to CX losing money again.
When Soviet Union declare their airspaces "off limits" to all Western flights between 1948-1991, CX flights to/from LGW (later LHR) in the '80s always involves at least one stop, sometimes two.
When Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egypt, Bahrain and Yemen shut their airspace to QR (still ongoing), a 3 hour DOH-KRT flight become 7 and half hours.
When Pakistan closed their airspace this year, a 2 hour TAS-ATQ flight become 6 hours.
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Old Aug 9, 2019, 8:19 am
  #25  
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Originally Posted by HkCaGu
No, that one was legal. However, today's airport protest is illegal. Everyone there caught by camera is toast?
Presumably all the CX staff who called in "sick" on the general strike day are barred. Plus any of them who signed the petitions at the airport. And of course all their Facebook accounts are monitored for incorrect thoughts.
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Old Aug 9, 2019, 8:44 am
  #26  
 
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very sad to hear. and what is worst is that, the news coverage here in the US, is pretty weak
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Old Aug 9, 2019, 8:52 am
  #27  
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Originally Posted by HkCaGu
No, that one was legal. However, today's airport protest is illegal. Everyone there caught by camera is toast?
Not really, it only said need to submit info for mainland authority to assess, never talks about the assessment criteria. Anyone they don't like will cause the flight being banned from passing through mainland... And u know... U will never know y...
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Old Aug 9, 2019, 9:36 am
  #28  
 
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Chinese Aviation Authorities banning flight crews who were charged with rioting

??????????????????????


Google translate:

First, since 0:00 on August 10, 2019, all personnel involved in and supporting illegal demonstrations, violent attacks, and excessively aggressive behaviors immediately stopped their flights to the Mainland or carried out activities related to air transportation in the Mainland. All duties;

Second, since 0:00 on August 11, 2019, the identity information of all crew members flying to the Mainland and flying over the Mainland airspace will be submitted to the operation certification body in the Mainland. The flight will not be accepted without approval.

Third, before 0:00 on August 15, 2019, report to the operation certification agency in the Mainland the company's measures to strengthen internal control and improve flight safety and security.
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Old Aug 9, 2019, 10:10 am
  #29  
 
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Taking a step back, I wonder what's CX's HR policy regarding a pilot which has been arrested and charged with a crime?
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Old Aug 9, 2019, 10:22 am
  #30  
 
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Am due to fly MAN-HKG-HND for the rugby world cup in September. I'm sure there will be others who will be using CX for the same. Hopefully this blows over by then but I don't see the protests ending soon.
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