Vietnam to US mistake fare discussion - 2019 Cathay New Year's gift
Jan 2, 2019, 10:01 pm
#136
Ambassador, Hong Kong and Macau
Join Date: May 2009
Location: HKG
Programs: Non-top tier Asia Miles member
Posts: 19,761
Business is argurable either way
(I include goodwill as a business decision)
but after It has gone over the actual revenues from 2018 incl both the normal revenue and the revenue from both Asia miles and partner redemption, then may be the money brought in from this feeding frenzy would be more than offset the revenue from partner redemption? Asia miles redemption should also be accounted for as well... Instead of settling the cost of redemption with the partners, CX now rakes in similar or even more, cash for 2019 in just a few hours...
Last edited by percysmith; Jan 2, 2019 at 11:27 pm
Jan 2, 2019, 10:41 pm
#137
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Cairns, Australia
Posts: 924
They are certainly receiving some worldwide publicity on their decision to honour these fares.
Similarly, brand identity and brand loyalty should not be underestimated.
At the same time they wouldn't want to incur substantial losses or disadvantage their premium customer base (cf. QRC388's perceptions / position).
Sales of these fares may not be nearly as extensive as some are presuming herein...and the cancellation rates may be atypically high due to rush purchases and need for positioning flights (CX gets cancellation fee and the chance to resell the inventory at the higher price).
Jan 3, 2019, 12:04 am
#138
Join Date: Jul 2017
Location: CGK
Posts: 2,375
My friend said it was good advertising to honor the fares. I countered that it wasn't, because it is too expensive an ad campaign. And most of these passengers wouldn't have bought premium class tickets anyway (or cannot afford to).
But in terms of the name, reputation, that might be something. Because maybe some passengers will come into money later, and remember how Cathay did something nice for them once, before they made it ...
But in terms of the name, reputation, that might be something. Because maybe some passengers will come into money later, and remember how Cathay did something nice for them once, before they made it ...
Jan 3, 2019, 12:19 am
#139
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Hong Kong
Programs: CX, UA, Shangri-La, Hyatt, Starwood
Posts: 7,708
But there is an element of discrimination in your argument, if only to the extent that you do not consider that those who have bought these fares should have their contracts honoured. And the reason for that (apparently) is that you expect to be able to access an A class fare personally just when you want and the purchasing of a "mistake" from the airline is a good enough reason (in your personal perception) to put yourself apart from those folk.
Would you extend that argument to other forms of deep discounting - staff travel, a group discount, whatever?
The weakness in your argument is that your access to the A classic inventory is not a right, but rather totally subject to the commercial decisions / yield management strategy adopted by CX of which honouring the mistakes fares is just one element.
In any case, your fears may be somewhat over inflated:
1. The seats sold may not be in the numbers you fear
2. Many purchasers (accepting a strong US based audience of the frequent flyer blogs) may cancel once they confront the reality of two positioning flights, arranging the eVisa, etc., etc.
The latter case may even result in the release of an unpredicted bonanza of A class inventory in due course.
Your perfectly entitled to your position of course.
Would you extend that argument to other forms of deep discounting - staff travel, a group discount, whatever?
The weakness in your argument is that your access to the A classic inventory is not a right, but rather totally subject to the commercial decisions / yield management strategy adopted by CX of which honouring the mistakes fares is just one element.
In any case, your fears may be somewhat over inflated:
1. The seats sold may not be in the numbers you fear
2. Many purchasers (accepting a strong US based audience of the frequent flyer blogs) may cancel once they confront the reality of two positioning flights, arranging the eVisa, etc., etc.
The latter case may even result in the release of an unpredicted bonanza of A class inventory in due course.
Your perfectly entitled to your position of course.
I definitely don't extend the argument to other forms of discounting like ID, etc, and I think that's disingenuous. Why? Because those types of ticketing are well planned for. It is regular. This is a serious, unplanned for upset that significantly changes how I will have to travel this year, because it seriously upsets the way CX has been selling tickets in my nearly 15 years living in Hong Kong and buying these fares. Their perogative? Definitely. Disruptive to some of us very loyal passengers who rely on CX? Absolutely. End of world? No. Highly inconvenient? Definitely. Let me put it another way....there are consequences and losers in this game. I think it is us.
If CX said "we're letting all staff book into A fare going forward," I would expect I am equally in opposition. But that's obviously not what we're talking about here, so let's not stretch to make it so. Otherwise we can really argue anything.
I agree its not our right have A fares. If CX wants to, at any random moment they can sell (X) pct of any fare (Y, R, J, F). But if X = a big enough number to be highly disruptive to HK people's normal travel patterns and way of life, regardless of class, I do think some acknowledgement needs to be made of the disruption and unintended consequences / collateral damage of their decision.
I believe folks in Hong Kong - those of us who live here, work here, and must fly Cathay Pacific at least sometimes - are genuine stakeholders in Cathay Pacific. We live here for the most part, neighbors and friends are pilots, management and flight attendants, and some of us are genuine captives to fly CX a lot. The captive argument is a real one: we loyally contribute to CX, in part because we must(without seriously inconveniencing ourselves). Hell I have diversified a lot of business to JAL, Emirates and SQ mostly, but I still must fly CX to North America in particur if I am being honest with myself and my time.
CX has locked up a lot of HKG slots and also pulled some funny business with things like air certificates to India with the shameless dance with KA (pretending a different carrier), slots in Japan, and keeping LCCs out of HKG for years through meausres which can be fairly described as crony capitalism, at a cost to the local population. Our return for this is in theory a stable airline, nice airport, etc. But the last 6 years CX has really not kept up its end of the bargain, has been totally unstable. The local population, not the intl one (who appears to have disproportionately benefited here) does not pay the price for this poor management for the most part. the Hong Kong captive stakeholders do via fares, decline of MPC/AM, etc.. This is getting a bit out there, but I tink the loyal travelers to CX, particularly those in Hong Kong, have a real stake in CX, like any population does in a local airline that is given a de facto quasi monopoly. ANd this an airline that had demonstrated extremely poor management the last 5-7 years (fuel hedging being the most egergious, and costly measure), for which which stakeholders have all paid for disproportionately via crappy ex-HKG fares, staff who are disgruntled and didn't received wages to match inflation (and those staff don't just serve us, but they live next door and patronize local business), and other things.
I don't expect much sympathy. I am talking about paying for first class tickets and getting upgraded from paid J. But, still I see this as another mark where mostly overseas travelers benefit, at the expense of those (few) of us locals who pay the price. Again. And it's not like we had a hand in deciding this poor decision, but we bear the cost of it. The consequences would be far more apparent if CX accidentally sold half a million economy tickets to overseas travels by mistske for $10 instead of $1000 (instead of mucking up premium classes as they did), since then a lot of HK people legitimately wouldn't be able to fly to see family overseas, and it would be a helluva ruckus. But I see the logic as the same except we are talking about us pampered F travelers being disadvantaged.
i agree with all the rest of your logic and I am hopeful a) some positioning flights are too cumbersome, b) CX doesn't allow changing to other A fares (aka locking people in to the dates they booked), and c) the numbers aren't as high as some were speculating. Hopefully it's a manageable number.
Jan 3, 2019, 12:34 am
#140
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: Tokyo, Vancouver, Hong Kong, Dublin
Programs: CX DM
Posts: 880
Just a couple data points from friends who booked the "special" fare re: impact on redemptions --
1. one booked April CX 888/9 HKG-JFK with the intention of a friend from Vancouver joining him on the YVR-JFK segments. that friend was able to redeem Z on those shorter segments.
2. another booked December CX 840/5 HKG-JFK in J. he was able to get a standard award to ugprade the 840 to Z. 845 was also available but at a higher category.
While surely impacted, seems there is still decent availability in Z.
1. one booked April CX 888/9 HKG-JFK with the intention of a friend from Vancouver joining him on the YVR-JFK segments. that friend was able to redeem Z on those shorter segments.
2. another booked December CX 840/5 HKG-JFK in J. he was able to get a standard award to ugprade the 840 to Z. 845 was also available but at a higher category.
While surely impacted, seems there is still decent availability in Z.
Jan 3, 2019, 1:15 am
#142
Join Date: Jun 2013
Location: China
Programs: A3 G CZ S
Posts: 50
Agreed that we normally weight 10k AM as US$100, so no way that US$1,000 > reimbursement value of 220k AM/AA
Actually in this case the ticket cost CX most maybe be the codeshare F/J sold and operated by AA/VN, as it can be expected that there's no way AA/VN will help in bear the loss and CX still need pay a decent cost to them
Jan 3, 2019, 1:18 am
#143
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: LA/NY/CHI
Programs: AA EXP, AS 100K, Hyatt Globalist, Marriott Plat
Posts: 1,876
Last edited by jona970318; Jan 3, 2019 at 6:06 pm Reason: spelling
Jan 3, 2019, 1:30 am
#144
Join Date: Jun 2013
Location: China
Programs: A3 G CZ S
Posts: 50
CX is indeed heavily restricting F inventory, though I'm not sure that's entirely intentional. When I was on the yield team in RM, there was a mechanism that automatically pushes the inventory upwards, or gates a certain fare class when there is usually high demand. I suspect that the strong restriction on A is a result of such mechanism kicking in, and availability should normalize in the next few weeks once the system picks up on the lack of demand
Referring to this there's an interesting discussion that after honoring this, should CX allow/or encourage ppl booked code shared F/J (operated by AA/VN) change to same date's CX own flight (MU do a similar thing when they sold bug PVG-LAX J class on AA codeshare flight). It may help lowering down the loss of paying high cost to AA/VN, but on the other hand will further clean out the F/J inv in high season.
Jan 3, 2019, 1:34 am
#145
Ambassador, Hong Kong and Macau
Join Date: May 2009
Location: HKG
Programs: Non-top tier Asia Miles member
Posts: 19,761
CX is indeed heavily restricting F inventory, though I'm not sure that's entirely intentional. When I was on the yield team in RM, there was a mechanism that automatically pushes the inventory upwards, or gates a certain fare class when there is usually high demand. I suspect that the strong restriction on A is a result of such mechanism kicking in, and availability should normalize in the next few weeks once the system picks up on the lack of demand
But I'm not sure how long they can keep this up.
What to do to re-release A seats for sale without allowing rebooking? Call them A+?
Jan 3, 2019, 2:12 am
#147
Join Date: May 2018
Programs: Marco Polo, BA Executive club, SPG, Hyatt,
Posts: 65
CX always wants to be stingy here and there........something about check-in upgrade that didn't include lounge access has people debate a couple of pages.
And now they did this (made a mistake but getting so generous to honour those purchases), which is good for publicity and the ones who got them, but a slap in the face for Asiamiles/Marco Polo members.
I don't think other than a DM invite, Cathay Pacific has done anything like this to please its members. How about a bunch of F tickets for discount prices as a lottery? Any lifetime FFP on elite tier?
Meanwhile AM is doing quantitative easing in a way not dissimilar to the Federal Reserve Bank during the bailout, with multiple cards offering huge bonuses.
I still like CX for the service and its lounges, but that's really about it and quite done with MPC as my preferred FFP....
And now they did this (made a mistake but getting so generous to honour those purchases), which is good for publicity and the ones who got them, but a slap in the face for Asiamiles/Marco Polo members.
I don't think other than a DM invite, Cathay Pacific has done anything like this to please its members. How about a bunch of F tickets for discount prices as a lottery? Any lifetime FFP on elite tier?
Meanwhile AM is doing quantitative easing in a way not dissimilar to the Federal Reserve Bank during the bailout, with multiple cards offering huge bonuses.
I still like CX for the service and its lounges, but that's really about it and quite done with MPC as my preferred FFP....
Jan 3, 2019, 2:14 am
#148
Join Date: Oct 2015
Location: London, UK
Programs: BAEC GGL/GFl, HH Diamond, BW Diamond, Virgin Voyages Deep Blue Extra, Blue Peter Badge Holder
Posts: 3,937
So I usually fly F, occasionally J, hardly on CX, I booked one of these fares, I’m not greedy, or riff-raff or indeed a backpacker. If I get a good service, this is likely to encourage me to diversify to CX.
As for all these further suggestions of how CX May inconvience pax further, I’ll fill them in the same draw as those who said there was 0% chance of CX honouring the fares, that CX would downgrade everyone to J (or indeed Y), that CX would unilaterally charge a cancellation fee once they’ve downgraded them to Y or indeed laughed at a blogger whom I have upmost respect for presenting a balanced view of the situation (subsequently proven to be correct unlike said poster).
They have stated they will honour the contract. They haven’t stated they will renegotiate the contract. The contract stands.
Whilst I do have sympathy for those who think they will be inadvertently affected by the loss of inventory, this is little different from many other factors (like a dramatic cut in oil prices) that can take away F or J seats, it may of course require you to adjust your plans much like when you see a fare but wait 24 hours to book to find it has doubled in price.
As I said Upthread, loyal frequent flyers represent only a small percentage of the business (I could make up a random figure to support an argument like some have done on this thread but I won’t). Across programmes, only 1 in 5 members of loyalty programmes are active, or which only 2% are equivalent of Emerald. This number is tiny compared to the number of people moved daily by a major airline such as CX and those not tied in to loyalty programmes find it far easier to switch airlines and airlines therefore have to work harder to attract and retain their business. Having said that, obviously those small number of elite flyers do spend money- but as demonstrated this is mostly at the marginal profit margins, those who can afford F bucket fares don’t need to worry about airline loyalty.
Whilst historically people were trapped by their flag carriers, this is no longer the case. I’d suggest people are better served if they consider air travel to be a commodity and take out their emotion from the situation - it can be of benefit to be loyal, but it is often not, with lounge access easily purchased these days, operational upgrades often going to non-loyal customers in an attempt to upsell their travel and app based IRROPS management devaluing the additional values of loyalty programmes.
As for all these further suggestions of how CX May inconvience pax further, I’ll fill them in the same draw as those who said there was 0% chance of CX honouring the fares, that CX would downgrade everyone to J (or indeed Y), that CX would unilaterally charge a cancellation fee once they’ve downgraded them to Y or indeed laughed at a blogger whom I have upmost respect for presenting a balanced view of the situation (subsequently proven to be correct unlike said poster).
They have stated they will honour the contract. They haven’t stated they will renegotiate the contract. The contract stands.
Whilst I do have sympathy for those who think they will be inadvertently affected by the loss of inventory, this is little different from many other factors (like a dramatic cut in oil prices) that can take away F or J seats, it may of course require you to adjust your plans much like when you see a fare but wait 24 hours to book to find it has doubled in price.
As I said Upthread, loyal frequent flyers represent only a small percentage of the business (I could make up a random figure to support an argument like some have done on this thread but I won’t). Across programmes, only 1 in 5 members of loyalty programmes are active, or which only 2% are equivalent of Emerald. This number is tiny compared to the number of people moved daily by a major airline such as CX and those not tied in to loyalty programmes find it far easier to switch airlines and airlines therefore have to work harder to attract and retain their business. Having said that, obviously those small number of elite flyers do spend money- but as demonstrated this is mostly at the marginal profit margins, those who can afford F bucket fares don’t need to worry about airline loyalty.
Whilst historically people were trapped by their flag carriers, this is no longer the case. I’d suggest people are better served if they consider air travel to be a commodity and take out their emotion from the situation - it can be of benefit to be loyal, but it is often not, with lounge access easily purchased these days, operational upgrades often going to non-loyal customers in an attempt to upsell their travel and app based IRROPS management devaluing the additional values of loyalty programmes.
Last edited by navylad; Jan 3, 2019 at 2:20 am
Jan 3, 2019, 2:16 am
#149
Join Date: Nov 2017
Programs: MPC-DM, Enrich-Plat
Posts: 1,310
https://nypost.com/2019/01/02/airlin...bargain-price/
But, I only scanned the link and did not read the article, which has a different message. So, the actual Qty is still open. Sorry.
I booked J for two reasons:
1. I thought there was absolutely 0% chance they'd honour the F fares. Many people predicted the F fares would be downgraded to J as well; I'm sure I'm not the only one who booked J with this line of reasoning.
2. I have DM upgrade certificates I thought I could use to get me into F anyway. This seems unlikely now...
There was probably no difference in price, but I could barely find dates for J anyway and booked after many thought the deal was already dead. Kinda wish I booked F, but definitely not complaining about J for under 1000USD. I'm still shocked they didn't cancel all tickets...
1. I thought there was absolutely 0% chance they'd honour the F fares. Many people predicted the F fares would be downgraded to J as well; I'm sure I'm not the only one who booked J with this line of reasoning.
2. I have DM upgrade certificates I thought I could use to get me into F anyway. This seems unlikely now...
There was probably no difference in price, but I could barely find dates for J anyway and booked after many thought the deal was already dead. Kinda wish I booked F, but definitely not complaining about J for under 1000USD. I'm still shocked they didn't cancel all tickets...
Which might explain that the J action offer VN-HKG-NA was also exhausted, where probably the J inventory HKG-NA is not exhausted. Check,check, check.
Feel free to comment on this calculation.
Jan 3, 2019, 2:34 am
#150
Join Date: Nov 2017
Programs: MPC-DM, Enrich-Plat
Posts: 1,310
.....
As I said Upthread, loyal frequent flyers represent only a small percentage of the business (I could make up a random figure to support an argument like some have done on this thread but I won’t). Across programmes, only 1 in 5 members of loyalty programmes are active, or which only 2% are equivalent of Emerald. This number is tiny compared to the number of people moved daily by a major airline such as CX and those not tied in to loyalty programmes find it far easier to switch airlines
As I said Upthread, loyal frequent flyers represent only a small percentage of the business (I could make up a random figure to support an argument like some have done on this thread but I won’t). Across programmes, only 1 in 5 members of loyalty programmes are active, or which only 2% are equivalent of Emerald. This number is tiny compared to the number of people moved daily by a major airline such as CX and those not tied in to loyalty programmes find it far easier to switch airlines
Yes, in the galley, there is a seat overview displayed, which includes name, meal pref and DM status.
Higher qualified loyalty members need to be active, otherwise, their loyalty status will be lost. In your reasoning, you mixup the Booking class with loyalty program.
As such, when F/J inventory gets wiped out for a whole year, that does influence the higher tier FF quite a lot, to put it mildly. Non-active FF don't count in a situation like this.
