pochi

As many source point out, EF didn't really have accurate data for CX and JAL.

If I saw i9 , but the trip is not confirm yet, should I trust Expert Flyer that there is more than 9 tickets on i class so I can book later?

percysmith

G-CIVC

What do you mean by get the exact data? How about point of sale? Married segments? Filed fares?

EF is a good starting point, but sometimes we gotta dig deeper and use information from EF as a starting point.

Mwenenzi

Yes indeed.
Airlines sell air tickets
EF sells data, but not tickets

LondonElite

I don't think we understand what your question is.

pochi

Yes. I'm planning to book i class ticket but the trip is not yet finalize so I cannot book it right now.

pochi

should be more readable. Edited.

LondonElite

percysmith

Well EF is accurate for that, unless you go in and can't buy six seats.

noturbulence

As just pointed out in a previous reply above – EF gives a (usually rather quite) accurate picture of the fare class availability at the moment you launch your query.

But that can change in a matter of minutes e.g.
- the airline revenue management decides to add or remove availability in a certain fare class at that moment
- someone has just booked the free seats in the given fare class that you saw a few minutes earlier (e.g. potential scenarios could be if a large family picks up all the seats or a company needs to make a reservation for a large group of their employees)

So bottomline – you can usually trust EF to be correct at the exact time you launch your query but the situation can have changed considerably just a few minutes later based on factors that are entirely unrelated to EF, e.g. the airline making adjustments or someone else taking up the available seats in that moment.

On the "9" in EF: This just means that there are at least 9 seats available in that fare class at that moment but again that is exactly that - at least - could be exactly 9, could be 20 - you simply do not know at that point.

brunos

I am very surprised by your statement.
Never seen anyone faulting EF. what are your "many sources'?
But remember that POS is a significant parameter. Luckily EF let you now choose from a variety of POS.

cxfan1960

EF is quite accurate. I9 only means 9 or more seats available in that fare class at that moment for the particular POS you selected. If your point of origin is different, then it may be wrong. It can be changed if they decide to hold back seats for some reasons, if they swap equipment, or if someone books some I. There was a time when CX had a lot of J business from a very big company in the Bay Area, and in one of my flights, half of the J cabin was that company's employees. If that company decides to send someone to the PRD region, all I fares can be gone in a minute.

Gongzuokuang

This all depends on what you mean by "trust". What I think you are asking is whether EF can be a predictive tool. I believe YES, but not by looking at the "available class" information.

I use it to look at the load -- the number of seats occupied -- and try to predict from that. I know there are many that say EF is not a reliable indicator of load. Yet I haven't seen a single piece of information to suggest the loads shown in EF are wrong.

Personally, I log EF data to try to predict when award seats might be available, or if available, will they last. I find the "available classes" information to be useless.

For example, which of these flights have "J" award seats available?

F5 A5 J9 C9 D9 I9 W9 R9 E9 Y9 B9 H9 K9 M9 L9 V9 S9 N9 Q9 O9
F4 A4 J9 C9 D9 I9 W9 R7 E6 Y9 B9 H9 K9 M9 L9 V9 S9 N9 Q7 O3
ANSWER: One has "CHOICE" available, and one has "STANDARD" available. These are T-19/20. Can you tell which is which? And what is the point of looking at this data when you can just check the CX website for availability?

Trying to use the fare class availability to predict redemptions IMO, won't tell you anything. CX has a complex formula that they use, and I'm not aware of anyone that has cracked it. I think it factors in system-wide loads, seasonal data, and even the day of the week. Many agree that the J load alone is not enough to predict whether awards will become available. For example, many suspect they look at PE loads and the potential to need to op-up so they can keep selling tickets. As people state above, the "available fare" data is just a snapshot in time.

However complicated it may be, I don't think it's hopeless. In the example above, I can look at the load and predict that the "CHOICE" one is likely to become "STANDARD" because there are still 26/28 seats available in J, and 23 in PE. Sure, if someone buys them then it changes the calculus. But knowing half the J cabin is open (and most of the PE cabin) can be a good indicator.

I am watching this flight: F5 A5 J9 C9 D9 I9 W9 R9 E9 Y9 B9 H9 K9 M9 L9 V9 S0 N0 Q0 O0
It is T-43 days and it has 42 seats available in "J", and 16 in PE. I predict next week it will open up and be available as a "STANDARD" redemption.

And this one: F5 A5 J9 C9 D9 I9 W9 R9 E9 Y6 B4 H4 K2 M1 L0 V0 S0 N0 Q0 O0
It is T-43 days. It has 26 available in "J" and 12 in PE. I think there is very little chance it will open up as "CHOICE", and probably no chance it will open up as "STANDARD" (Until maybe 3-4 days out).

One flight I was watching that was about 50 days out had something like 34 seats available in J... roughly 65%. Sometime over the span of a few days, someone bought 10 tickets (which I could see by checking regularly). The "available classes" didn't change, but I could immediately see that it went (IMO) from a "likely" possibility to a "unlikely" possibility.

Based on this information, I can plan (react!) accordingly.

The argument I often hear against EF is that people question the accuracy of the seat map. They will say, "What if someone buys a ticket but doesn't select a seat?" My observation is that if the ticket is not assigned a seat, then CX will still block a seat when they make the sale. And for "J"? I've made reservations, and checked EF both before and after. Within a minute of booking, my seat -- which was available before the reservation -- is now showing as occupied. Heck, I've even experimented with comparing EF data to actually CX website booking details (booking a fake reservation), and it's always matched.

The other argument I've heard is that people suggest they see empty seats on EF on the morning of the flight, only to see the occupied when they board. That may be convincing to some, but I don't place much stock in it because there is probably a flurry of activity at the gate/check-in on the day of the flight.

Basically, I trust what I see on EF.

garykung

First, when it shows I9, it means 9 or more, it does not mean more than 9.

Second - EF is a secondary source based on CX's data. So no matter how accurate EF data really is, the bottom line is you can only book based on CX's own data. Just because EF shows availability, it does not mean you can book it.

jagmeets