Typhoon Trami
Sep 22, 2018, 8:46 am
#2
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Sep 22, 2018, 8:45 pm
#3
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Way to early to tell, and aiming at HKG? So far not the case: Model Tracks Multi-Agency TC Forecast
And thanks for the link.
At this point models have "aims" going all over the place. But the UK results are worrying and some other models suggest the general direction of HK (not the US one).
Will better know in a week time.
I got so much destruction around me due to Mangkhut, that I worry even if very low probability.
Last edited by brunos; Sep 22, 2018 at 10:30 pm
Sep 23, 2018, 2:23 am
#5
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: TPE / HSZ
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Indeed, way too early to tell.
And thanks for the link.
At this point models have "aims" going all over the place. But the UK results are worrying and some other models suggest the general direction of HK (not the US one).
Will better know in a week time.
I got so much destruction around me due to Mangkhut, that I worry even if very low probability.
And thanks for the link.
At this point models have "aims" going all over the place. But the UK results are worrying and some other models suggest the general direction of HK (not the US one).
Will better know in a week time.
I got so much destruction around me due to Mangkhut, that I worry even if very low probability.
Sep 23, 2018, 8:52 am
#6
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I would say focus on ECMWF, which is recently the most accurate, and take note of GFS, too. The other models are generally not as well regarded. Please note though that these are not official forecasts, but computer models. Official forecasts by various agencies generally don't go beyond 120 hours, and at this point, these "subjective forecasts" (meaning there is meteorologist intervention based on experience and intuition and not completely based off computer models) are in good agreement: TRAMI Multi-Agency TC Forecast
It is indeed fascinating that two of these models see TRAMI going to Japan in the long run, 2 hitting middle Taiwan and 2 going South of Taiwan without touching it.
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/multi/models.php?name=TRAMI
Last edited by brunos; Sep 23, 2018 at 8:59 am