JohnGreat

Folks,

Just curious anyone has any idea or theory as to why CX 892 is canceled on Nov. 4th. CX has transferred me to CX 870 but I lost my favorite bulk head seat. My impression is all three fights between SFO - HKG are always packed. I can't see any reason why it will be canceled.

HkCaGu

Could it be related to daylight saving time?

dkc192

It's most likely a one-off seasonal cancellation to account for lower off-peak demand (early November is pretty much as quiet as it gets). There was a thread about similar cancellations a while back IIRC.

tboons

Dec 4th also cancelled and they moved me to an earlier flight but no more A359!

dkc192

Something about the 4th of each month!

CommittedLurker

CX 870 HKG-SFO also canceled on Nov 15th.
CX 879 SFO-HKG canceled on Nov 29th, meaning CX 870 also canceled on Nov 29th ex: HKG.

Something to do with Thursday's it seems.

I have been traveling on this route for years. It's not daylight savings time related - I'm sure of that.

Maybe some sort of rotation with refurbishment or maintenance checks ?

QRC3288

No, that's definitely not it. There is no set rotation through SFO, and the flights mirror plenty of other flight patterns which aren't being cancelled. For example, CX879/870 has an identical plane type and pattern as CX837/838 (YVR). CX851/892 has similar with CX890/899 (EWR). Neither of the others face cancellation.

What's happening is very similar to LAX after AA launched. Prior to AA, CX had 4x dailies to LAX and oened the market.

​​​​Once AA launched, CX periodically cancelled CX898/897 and sometimes CX884/885 too. Eventually CX fully cancelled CX897/898. HX has since entered the market; so LAX is now served by up to 5x daily flights. And CX still occasionally cancels CX884/885 in th low season.

At SFO, CX themselves added capacity by making 892/852 daily, and HX also launched. Plus you have SQ and UA flying daily. So SFO now has up to SIX dailies to HKG on the days HX runs. My guess is capacity is....overserved at this point.

So my bet is loads or yields are weak and that's why CX is cancelling one off days.

CommittedLurker

Another flight change:

March 21 2019 - SFO-HKG CX 879 canceled (meaning CX 870 also canceled).

I really wonder what is going on. This is the first flight of the day from SFO-HKG (and vice versa), and it usually runs full. I am surprised they would cut this flight first if they are trying to reduce capacity on this route.

triplefives

I'd put my money on QRC's explanation. It may be full but it doesn't mean it's wildly profitable (think CX employee family benefits who get to travel at an extreme discount on standby). Anecdotally, I've noticed CX870/879 are usually the last flights to fill up whenever I've needed to buy tickets on this route.

snicko

Looks like 851 was cancelled on 10/13. I just got moved to 873. Bummer, was looking forward to trying the A350 out!

QRC3288

I hear you, but this is extremely similar to what happened with LAX in recent years years. I don't think there is anything complicated: SFO yields are just falling after significant capacity increases. Duh! In the last 5 years, SFO has gone from 4x daily flights to 5.5 or 6x, depending on day of the week. Meanwhile all regional Asian destinations have gotten a lot of additional capacity too which pulls customers from CX's increasingly transit-driven network. There isn't unlimited yield out there...and eventually you push capacity until you find the limit. My bet is we're there for now SFO-HKG.

As for CX870/879 cancelled selectively, that's very similar to CX884/885 being cancelled to LAX too. I know for sure that CX870-879 has lower yields historically than CX872/873 (nighttime with F). That's the main reason CX870/879 got downgraded 3 years ago when the B747 left - F was stripped off the daytime flight (74K->77G), but kept on the nighttime (74K->77H). F never returned to CX870/879 fyi. I don't know the yields now, but I don't see why anything changes from when I last had that info. How full the flight is isn't indicative like yield. You can have 20+ ID (staff) passengers on SFO-HKG flights, sell a bunch of cheapo group economy tickets and op-up into J, etc. Meanwhile, CX851/892 is a newer flight which recently went daily. If I was betting money, those two that have been cancelled are the two most likely flights to be cancelled! Although even CX873/872 isn't immune: according to others, it has poor F yields versus other F destinations, although I haven't seen the data myself. CX870/879 I've seen a competitor's analysis on CX; in their appraisal, CX's J class yields significantly less on the daytime flight vs. nighttime CX873/872 (this was pre CX851/892). And you obviously cancel the tourist flight first not the business one if yields are weak across the board.

It's incredible how similar this is to the LAX situation in the last few years. Bummer. If it continues, it would follow that one of the daily SFO flights goes back to not being weekly, or even cancelled. The LAX progression was as follows:

LAX-HKG last 5+ years progression
1.) 3x daily flights, 3x CX.
2.) 4x daily flights, 4x CX (+introduction of CX898/897).
3.) 5x daily flights, 4x CX and 1x AA (+1x daily American Airlines).
4.) 4.5x daily flights, 3.5x CX and 1x AA (-CX begins cancelling CX898/897 on numerous days often multiple times a week, and occasionally cancels CX884/885 too)
5.) 4.5x+ daily flights, 3x CX, 1x AA, 1x HX (+HX launches, -CX permanently cancels CX898/897)

It's not hard to see that LAX, for the time being and all else equal, seems to have an upper limit of about 5x daily flights.

SFO-HKG last few years progression
1.) 4x daily flights, 2x CX, 1x UA, 1x SQ
2.) 4.5x daily flights, 2.5x CX, 1x UA, 1x SQ (+4x weekly CX851/892, although previously under different flight #s )
3.) 5x daily flights, 3x CX, 1x UA, 1x SQ (+CX851/892 goes daily)
4.) 5.5x daily flights, 3x CX, 1x UA, 1x SQ, 1x HX (+HX launches, not daily
5.) 5x daily flights? (CX851/879 being selectively cancelled?)

You can see how this looks similar to CX on the ramp up, and maybe it's time to trim some capacity.

Also, things to think about quiet changes to capacity
*Capacity declined when B747 left.
*But, now the reverse is happening: seats are being quietly increased due to config changes. That's because CX is going 10 abreast in Y vs 9. +120 daily seats to/from SFO and LAX, or about 1/3 an extra flight worth of capacity per day. You can't just absorb capacity for free. There will be some impact to pricing aka yield.

christep

Also, if you give any credence to what is written on PPRUNE, Cathay has an increasing shortage of pilots which is causing some planned, and some unplanned, cancellations.

garykung

Also - don't forget that, IIRC, CX's SFO-HKG is supposed to go for A359 exclusively (i.e no more B77W), so that CX's capacity can be naturally reduced.

I guess in the mean time, CX will have to physically cancel a flight to reduce the capacity then. In other word, this practice is going to continue, unless the demand suggests otherwise, or SFO-HKG goes for A359 exclusively as originally announced.

QRC3288

ugh really? that will suck. No more F then?

If so, that will mean just 4 daily F seats SFO-HKG, on SQ only...it's a lovely product. But it can fill up.