Gongzuokuang

A few weeks back I was waitlisted for 10/16 and 10/17, ORD to HKG.

A few days ago I checked my "Manage Bookings" and noticed that I now had TWO waitlists for the 16th, and none for the 17th. I called today to ask why and was told that the flight on the 17th was cancelled.

ORD is a daily flight. Curious, I then checked on 10/24 (The next Tuesday), and it too is cancelled.

Is it strange that they would cancel two consecutive Tuesday flights on a daily route, especially this far in advance?

G-CIVC

ORD flight is not operating on the following days:
Sept 12, 19, 26, Oct 17, 24, Feb 6, Mar 6 (Tuesdays)
Nov 23 (Thu - tgvg)
Jan 31 (Weds)
Feb 17 (Sat)

Expect more cancelations down the road. Flight on sept 19 was not canceled until earlier this week. Loads are plummeting in all four cabins - I smell downgrade to A359 soon, (no payload restriction because there isn't much payload at all...) that's why I'm trying to upgrade to F as much as I can before it gets taken away

FWIW, I'm not sure about business traveler/demand but for students, MANY switched to HU/BR - they didn't exist when CX was gloriously pulling 10x weekly 77H into ORD back then. (Not surprising when ex-HKG fares to ORD are even more expensive than to JFK)

garykung

The load never exists for ORD-HKG. FWIW:

1. CX heavily relies on connecting traffic from AA. With AA's DFW/LAX-HKG, would AA give the traffic to CX?

2. There is a reason why UA downgauged this route from B744 to B772 and will not plan to be upgauged to B77W. Even UA can't always fill the plane full.

Because CX is one of the most expensive?

G-CIVC

Up until 1H last year, it was very fine. J0C0D0I0 a few days every month, PEY was strong too. I've still seen a lot of AA connecting pax from neighboring states every time I've flown, so it's not about that too.

I am not sure if fares are really that 'expensive'. OK I don't know for business travel, but judging by the # of DM/EMs on each flight they are there. But for students/parents/high end traveler (I guess we take up like...1/4 of the year? Not insignificant?) most aren't really that price elastic anyway too. Actually ex-US fares nowadays are not bad at all, around $5-6k for I class which many students will gladly pay.

But when BR joined - at a 20% discount, things changed....

Personally I won't think about any non-CX airline even if they were like what, 80% off from CX's prices. And that's not just me so ORD will still be here, maybe just downgrade to 35G.

Aus106080

UA has capacity reduction of ORD-PEK, PVG and HKG also.

garykung

How many of them are awards/upgrades? Do you know by any chance?

Speaking of AA, I know why AA people stop taking CX - EQD system. By choosing CX, they will earn less RDM because of the multiplier.

This actually support your claim because those tickets traveled within 1H17 were ticketed during 2H16.

20%? Think more.

I have a friend's sister, who booked for BR's ORD-TPE-HKG during Summer '17. Guess what? It was $500-ish.

Even UA is hurted by BR. A random date shows UA is selling for $877 and BR is selling for $676 with 2 baggages. If UA is not doing so good on this route, do you really think CX can?

A typical story of frequent flyer. Well known.

Maybe if AA does not pull another stunt like adding ORD-HKG.

G-CIVC

By J0C0D0I0 I mean occasions when J class was oversold. Not upgrade/awards. I think it regularly coincided with large conferences/events on both sides (one being Canton fair.)
So maybe demand related to this has just happened to weaken this year, who knows if there'll be a comeback soon!

Not really, in fact most people are highly likely to fare better RDM wise even in J/F class flying on partners than AA. Anyway, I doubt the majority of elites/members would care.

Y is not really important (and I don't care) - but even J class is suffering.

I guess for the disposable/discretionary income gang, no one will fly UA anyway. (*shiver*) But BR is beastily competitive enough.

Not gonna happen and even if it does, still not gonna happen/work given the remaining slots at HKG are all incredibly unfriendly for a long haul route.

brunos

Sorry for my ignorance.
But why would BR flight to TPE make so much difference?
There are many other alternatives.

Gongzuokuang

That would be ok with me!

IMO, J is just fine. For this particular trip I have a confirmed F but am waitlisted hoping for J (redemption). The F service is just not worth the extra (although it might be now that they've "downgraded" to Dine -On- Demand in J!)

The A359 has Wi-Fi! Bring it!

I suppose the downside is that the smaller plane further limits award availability. But if the loads are as empty as you say, then I guess the smaller plane is preferable to cancelled flights.

G-CIVC

Because BR not only takes away lucrative demand for ORD-SE Asia (which is a huge component that supports the HKG-ORD route), it is actually a viable alternative for even O/D between HK and ORD (whereas transit in PRC and flying MU/HU etc is really...rather negligible.)

Not to mention the TPE-ORD and ORD-TPE flights both have good timing and CX doesn't offer that too (and let's not start talking about 806/807's miserable OTP)

Heck, BR may even be the best airline out there for a Chinese speaking passenger. My dad's already asking me 'why don't you let us give BR a shot'.

mcgahat

Just happened to notice that my wife's CX BKK-HKG flight was cancelled for next Tuesday. Presuming due to load as other mentioned. No alert was received and the CX person my wife talked to in BKK didnt seem to know. We just worked with our booking agent to change.

I would suggest people double check their CX flights just in case.

Cathay Dragon 666

ORD has always been top heavy. Strong C class sales, but very weak Y class sales. There are times when I fly ORD route I can see the total people waiting in the boarding area can't be more than 120-150, but C class cabin seems to be always full.

I am not surprise when price conscious flyers would choose UA/BR/HU over Cathay. Their hardwares are catching up, meals are equivalent or better, and what used to be Cathay's #1 attraction - incredible service, is now non-existent. Why spend the premium on Cathay when you can get almost the same thing on other airlines?

maverick17

So is ORD my best chance to get some empty middle seats in Y? My recent SFO flight had the entire rear Y cabin with 1 person per 3 seats, it was outstanding. I'm sure that is rare, haven't had a flight like that myself in many years, certainly not on a TPAC. But would enjoy a little extra space and afraid the EWR flight might be packed.

Aus106080

HU ORD-PEK has heavy cut on ord route for nov-march, from 5 weekly reduce to 2-3 weekly.

G-CIVC

In terms of overall performance, EWR is much weaker than ORD. Hence the equipment downgrade soon.