May 4, 2015, 8:46 pm
Last edit by: maortega15
This is a thread to discuss rumours / potential new routes for Cathay Pacific to fly to.
Current speculation:
Current speculation:
New route speculation for Cathay
Jun 20, 2018, 10:33 am
#946
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 116
Airbus says in their slideshow last week that the 1000 can fly HKG-MIA with 366 passengers and bags (with an unknown margin on top of that). Since CX has only 334, that's immediately a full load plus at least 3t of cargo possible on the route.
When CX claims there's no aircraft capable of flying it, it's nonsense. Just like QF claiming SYD-LHR isn't doable yet. Sure it is, but just not with the amount of payload they feel needs to be under the floor to make it work profitably .
The -1000 now looks like it'll be significantly more capable than the 779 in terms of range - 800nm difference won't be made up with the lower density 779 w/F. The 77H weighs more than a 77G empty, so the only payload difference will be 50-60 pax ie 5-6t or ~40mins of fuel (~350nm). If CX doesn't launch MIA with Airbus shouting it's possible on the -1000, it's only because they just don't want to.
Re: the price... I think that would be around a 17-17.5hr flight. It's essentially a flying gas tank, and I don't see how anything less than a significant premium would make MIA work.
When CX claims there's no aircraft capable of flying it, it's nonsense. Just like QF claiming SYD-LHR isn't doable yet. Sure it is, but just not with the amount of payload they feel needs to be under the floor to make it work profitably .
The -1000 now looks like it'll be significantly more capable than the 779 in terms of range - 800nm difference won't be made up with the lower density 779 w/F. The 77H weighs more than a 77G empty, so the only payload difference will be 50-60 pax ie 5-6t or ~40mins of fuel (~350nm). If CX doesn't launch MIA with Airbus shouting it's possible on the -1000, it's only because they just don't want to.
Re: the price... I think that would be around a 17-17.5hr flight. It's essentially a flying gas tank, and I don't see how anything less than a significant premium would make MIA work.
Jul 17, 2018, 6:48 pm
#947
Join Date: Jun 2015
Location: New York
Programs: AA, CX, Hyatt, Marriott
Posts: 1,484
Looks like new U.S. route(s) coming up: CX ins account just teased the following cities for speculation:
"Houston, Las Vegas, Salt Lake City, Honolulu, Seattle, Denver, Austin, Dallas and Miami. Where are we going next?"
A lot of the cities have been speculated before (Dallas, Miami and Seattle).
"Houston, Las Vegas, Salt Lake City, Honolulu, Seattle, Denver, Austin, Dallas and Miami. Where are we going next?"
A lot of the cities have been speculated before (Dallas, Miami and Seattle).
Jul 17, 2018, 10:08 pm
#948
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Hong Kong
Programs: CX, UA, Shangri-La, Hyatt, Starwood
Posts: 7,708
Looks like new U.S. route(s) coming up: CX ins account just teased the following cities for speculation:
"Houston, Las Vegas, Salt Lake City, Honolulu, Seattle, Denver, Austin, Dallas and Miami. Where are we going next?"
A lot of the cities have been speculated before (Dallas, Miami and Seattle).
"Houston, Las Vegas, Salt Lake City, Honolulu, Seattle, Denver, Austin, Dallas and Miami. Where are we going next?"
A lot of the cities have been speculated before (Dallas, Miami and Seattle).
HNL would be great. Would make Hawaii vacations so much easier for those of us primarily based in HKG. You figure they have the right plane already with A359. Right now, it's essentially two connections...I've done Tokyo in the past, but I guess TPE, ICN, MNL or even mainland ports work. I can't recall the last time I stayed in HNL, so it's always a second flight which really adds to the bummer, after having already done a transit.
If CX was nonstop to HNL that would be great...and if they codeshared with HA to the other islands: spectacular.
Jul 17, 2018, 10:41 pm
#949
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 116
Looks like new U.S. route(s) coming up: CX ins account just teased the following cities for speculation:
"Houston, Las Vegas, Salt Lake City, Honolulu, Seattle, Denver, Austin, Dallas and Miami. Where are we going next?"
A lot of the cities have been speculated before (Dallas, Miami and Seattle).
"Houston, Las Vegas, Salt Lake City, Honolulu, Seattle, Denver, Austin, Dallas and Miami. Where are we going next?"
A lot of the cities have been speculated before (Dallas, Miami and Seattle).
I'd love a direct flight to HNL too. I flew via TPE on the way there on CI, but the worst part was CI didn't have a direct flight on the day of my return flight. On the return leg, I had to fly (starting in Maui) OGG–HNL–NRT–TPE–HKG. Tbh I was kind of surprised my luggage made it all the way
Edit: Where is the instagram post that teased the potential cities? Can't seem to find it
Last edited by cx4ever; Jul 17, 2018 at 10:49 pm
Jul 17, 2018, 11:21 pm
#950
Join Date: Oct 2015
Location: HKG MEL KUL SIN
Programs: Marriott Ti CX SL SQ KFEG
Posts: 109
HKG LAS
was once done with SQ if I remembered correctly? in 2002?
I wonder what terminated that as I don't quite remember it, was it SARS or something else?
If it's some operational reasons, I doubt that CX will establish LAS with so many other choices listed in the instagram stories
So yea unlikely will be LAS
was once done with SQ if I remembered correctly? in 2002?
I wonder what terminated that as I don't quite remember it, was it SARS or something else?
If it's some operational reasons, I doubt that CX will establish LAS with so many other choices listed in the instagram stories
So yea unlikely will be LAS
Jul 17, 2018, 11:30 pm
#951
Join Date: Jan 2014
Programs: CX Diamond, United MileagePlus Gold, Accor Platinum
Posts: 90
The three that have been speculated before make much more sense than Houston, LV and Salt Lake City...
I'd love a direct flight to HNL too. I flew via TPE on the way there on CI, but the worst part was CI didn't have a direct flight on the day of my return flight. On the return leg, I had to fly (starting in Maui) OGG–HNL–NRT–TPE–HKG. Tbh I was kind of surprised my luggage made it all the way
Edit: Where is the instagram post that teased the potential cities? Can't seem to find it
I'd love a direct flight to HNL too. I flew via TPE on the way there on CI, but the worst part was CI didn't have a direct flight on the day of my return flight. On the return leg, I had to fly (starting in Maui) OGG–HNL–NRT–TPE–HKG. Tbh I was kind of surprised my luggage made it all the way
Edit: Where is the instagram post that teased the potential cities? Can't seem to find it
Jul 18, 2018, 6:51 am
#952
Join Date: Jun 2015
Location: New York
Programs: AA, CX, Hyatt, Marriott
Posts: 1,484
HKG LAS
was once done with SQ if I remembered correctly? in 2002?
I wonder what terminated that as I don't quite remember it, was it SARS or something else?
If it's some operational reasons, I doubt that CX will establish LAS with so many other choices listed in the instagram stories
So yea unlikely will be LAS
was once done with SQ if I remembered correctly? in 2002?
I wonder what terminated that as I don't quite remember it, was it SARS or something else?
If it's some operational reasons, I doubt that CX will establish LAS with so many other choices listed in the instagram stories
So yea unlikely will be LAS
Jul 18, 2018, 7:40 am
#953
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Upper Left Corner of the Map
Programs: AS MVPG & Board Room, Marriott Silver, Global Entry
Posts: 2,203
Selfishly hoping for SEA. Delta recently axed SEA-HKG, and added SEA-KIX. Not sure if it underperformed (full when I flew it but that means zippo), or the 330 deployed was wanted elsewhere. KIX being operated with 763.
Given AS feed at SEA and their partnership, that could be a plus. They'd have a monopoly on the non-stop, and depending on connection times, could suck some India traffic from EK. SEA-HKG-BOM is just a bit over 500 more miles than via DXB.
But that's just me in my armchair, pretending to be a network planner.
Given AS feed at SEA and their partnership, that could be a plus. They'd have a monopoly on the non-stop, and depending on connection times, could suck some India traffic from EK. SEA-HKG-BOM is just a bit over 500 more miles than via DXB.
But that's just me in my armchair, pretending to be a network planner.
Jul 18, 2018, 8:04 am
#954
Join Date: Apr 2017
Location: PVD, BOS
Programs: AA EXP
Posts: 1,664
I'd say the most plausible options would be SEA, DFW and MIA in that order.
Ultimately, I think SEA will be the new destination. Given their financial condition, my expectation is that CX will continue to be fairly conservative with new routes. SEA is a relatively short route compared to other US destinations, so it's much less of a risk financially. DL's cancellation of SEA-HKG and the CX partnership with AS makes this a no-brainer.
DFW and MIA would both be interesting additions, especially as they both serve as major gateway cities to South and Central America. I don't know how strong the O&D traffic would be from DFW or MIA, though South Florida currently has no non-stop service to Asia so it could be a big draw. Especially if MIA were to offer subsidies for CX to operate the route. That said, CX already flies LAX, which is also a (lesser) South American gateway city for LA.
The problem with DFW and MIA is they're both risky for CX. AA owns DFW and their revenue management is typically sharper than CX, so I'm not sure if yields will be good enough for CX. DFW is about the same distance as IAD, so certainly feasible with the right plane (A350, presumably). MIA is substantially longer; it would be CX's longest route by a long shot. In the absence of major subsidies from MIA, I think it would be a challenging route for CX to make money on. Unless they launched MIA as a tag flight to YVR, SFO, SEA, LAX, ORD, IAD.
Ultimately, I think SEA will be the new destination. Given their financial condition, my expectation is that CX will continue to be fairly conservative with new routes. SEA is a relatively short route compared to other US destinations, so it's much less of a risk financially. DL's cancellation of SEA-HKG and the CX partnership with AS makes this a no-brainer.
DFW and MIA would both be interesting additions, especially as they both serve as major gateway cities to South and Central America. I don't know how strong the O&D traffic would be from DFW or MIA, though South Florida currently has no non-stop service to Asia so it could be a big draw. Especially if MIA were to offer subsidies for CX to operate the route. That said, CX already flies LAX, which is also a (lesser) South American gateway city for LA.
The problem with DFW and MIA is they're both risky for CX. AA owns DFW and their revenue management is typically sharper than CX, so I'm not sure if yields will be good enough for CX. DFW is about the same distance as IAD, so certainly feasible with the right plane (A350, presumably). MIA is substantially longer; it would be CX's longest route by a long shot. In the absence of major subsidies from MIA, I think it would be a challenging route for CX to make money on. Unless they launched MIA as a tag flight to YVR, SFO, SEA, LAX, ORD, IAD.
Jul 18, 2018, 8:17 am
#955
Join Date: May 2007
Programs: UA 1K, Hyatt Globalist
Posts: 5,447
FWIW, I was chatting with the ISM on a HKG-BOS or BOS-HKG at the end of 2017 (can't remember which...) and she told me that CX would be starting service to HNL soon. Make what you will of her (rather confident) declaration!
Jul 18, 2018, 8:54 am
#956
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: HKG/HND/OOL
Programs: QF Emerald. SQ Gold.
Posts: 3,170
i dont see how HNL fit along CX model of business+cargo. forgive my ignorance but i cant see HNL anythinf other than pure Leisure route, and CX tend to shy away in those.
i wud however consider KA cud take HKG HNL route for those very reason... their A330 shud be able to fly HKG-HNL which is about 5600miles or almost identical to hkg-AKL.
i wud however consider KA cud take HKG HNL route for those very reason... their A330 shud be able to fly HKG-HNL which is about 5600miles or almost identical to hkg-AKL.
Jul 18, 2018, 9:06 am
#957
Join Date: Jan 2017
Programs: BA SL, CX GR, IHG Plat Amb
Posts: 578
i dont see how HNL fit along CX model of business+cargo. forgive my ignorance but i cant see HNL anythinf other than pure Leisure route, and CX tend to shy away in those.
i wud however consider KA cud take HKG HNL route for those very reason... their A330 shud be able to fly HKG-HNL which is about 5600miles or almost identical to hkg-AKL.
i wud however consider KA cud take HKG HNL route for those very reason... their A330 shud be able to fly HKG-HNL which is about 5600miles or almost identical to hkg-AKL.
Jul 18, 2018, 9:22 am
#958
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Hong Kong
Programs: CX, UA, Shangri-La, Hyatt, Starwood
Posts: 7,708
It would no doubt require extra pieces for CX to make this work. Just saying though, HNL is absolutely a cargo destination too. And there are no HKG-HNL nonstops of any kind, except for the odd United Airlines flights to/from HNL which go to Haeco for refits and overhauls.
Jul 18, 2018, 11:15 am
#959
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: TPE / HSZ
Programs: CX GO (=SPH), IHG Diamond Amb, Hertz 5*, Accor, Hilton, National
Posts: 6,437
Jul 18, 2018, 11:16 am
#960
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: TPE / HSZ
Programs: CX GO (=SPH), IHG Diamond Amb, Hertz 5*, Accor, Hilton, National
Posts: 6,437